Author Topic: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM  (Read 314 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Topic Start: December 04, 2012, 07:06:34 PM »
If the Red Sox sign Shane Victorino for 3/$39, it'll solidify my notion that Ben Cherington is going to be terrible for the franchise.

It's like he can't put together all the pieces.

(a) Shane Victorino looking for 3 to 4 years at $10 million per.
(b) Theo told me not to sign him for 4 years, but to offer him a higher AAV instead, over 3 years.

And then he goes and ties him up for 3 years at a 4 year price. Unbelievable.

If you're giving him $39 million, just take the 4th year already!

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #1: December 04, 2012, 07:11:24 PM »
If the Red Sox sign Shane Victorino for 3/$39, it'll solidify my notion that Ben Cherington is going to be terrible for the franchise.

It's like he can't put together all the pieces.

(a) Shane Victorino looking for 3 to 4 years at $10 million per.
(b) Theo told me not to sign him for 4 years, but to offer him a higher AAV instead, over 3 years.

And then he goes and ties him up for 3 years at a 4 year price. Unbelievable.

If you're giving him $39 million, just take the 4th year already!

Yeah, I don't get it either.  Victorino and Pagan are pretty comparable.  Giants might look at as getting a 4th year of Pagan for free.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #2: December 04, 2012, 09:24:01 PM »
If the Red Sox sign Shane Victorino for 3/$39, it'll solidify my notion that Ben Cherington is going to be terrible for the franchise.

It's like he can't put together all the pieces.

(a) Shane Victorino looking for 3 to 4 years at $10 million per.
(b) Theo told me not to sign him for 4 years, but to offer him a higher AAV instead, over 3 years.

And then he goes and ties him up for 3 years at a 4 year price. Unbelievable.

If you're giving him $39 million, just take the 4th year already!
Not arguing this was a good signing for a good amount, but MLB Tonight says Victorino walked away from 4 years, $44MM from the Indians.

What the Victorino signing might mean is they are trading Ellsbury by 7/31.  Victorino might play half his contract at CF.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #3: December 04, 2012, 10:02:02 PM »
Not arguing this was a good signing for a good amount, but MLB Tonight says Victorino walked away from 4 years, $44MM from the Indians.

What the Victorino signing might mean is they are trading Ellsbury by 7/31.  Victorino might play half his contract at CF.

They should have just traded him now.  He's healthy right now and they could have signed a younger and better CF for a couple mil more per season. 

Offline comish4lif

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #4: December 05, 2012, 08:44:11 AM »
According to: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/red-sox-to-sign-shane-victorino.html

Quote
The Red Sox remodeling project continued today, as they agreed to terms with Shane Victorino on a three-year, $39MM contract.  The 32-year-old, a client of John Boggs & Associates, slipped this year to a .255/.321/.383 line for the Phillies and Dodgers, but still did well in free agency.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/red-sox-to-sign-shane-victorino.html#V3BzXIzVHVk6SlAb.99

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #5: December 05, 2012, 10:01:36 AM »
Not arguing this was a good signing for a good amount, but MLB Tonight says Victorino walked away from 4 years, $44MM from the Indians.

That almost proves my point, though. $5 million for a single season will be barely replacement level in 2016. Hell, Grady Sizemore got $5 million LAST SEASON for a single year, to not play baseball, after two years of, ahem, NOT PLAYING BASEBALL.

So it doesn't make any sense to refuse an extra year if it's only going to cost $5 million. If Victorino sucks by 2016, cut him for the 4th year of the contract and the Red Sox barely miss that extra $5 million on a $150 million+ payroll. At the very least, he'll probably still be a decent defensive replacement and platoon player against LHP.

But I'm sure people in the industry are already laughing at Cherington considering how closely together the Pagan and Victorino deals occurred. Way to get the older, less talented player for one less year at the same money, Ben.


Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #6: December 05, 2012, 10:11:10 AM »
I mean, I could talk about the Victorino decision all day.

Three Year Splits vs. LHP
Player A: .318/.396/.550 in 440 ABs (.701 OPS vs. righties)
Player B: .296/.398/.506 in 419 ABs (.692 OPS vs. righties)

Player A is Shane Victorino, who is a plus defensive CF and was NOT worth 1 year @ $5 million to Ben Cherington
Player B is Jonny Gomes, who is a DH and WAS worth 2 years @ $10 million...to Ben Cherington.

Online Slateman

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #7: December 05, 2012, 10:51:16 AM »
I mean, I could talk about the Victorino decision all day.

Three Year Splits vs. LHP
Player A: .318/.396/.550 in 440 ABs (.701 OPS vs. righties)
Player B: .296/.398/.506 in 419 ABs (.692 OPS vs. righties)

Player A is Shane Victorino, who is a plus defensive CF and was NOT worth 1 year @ $5 million to Ben Cherington
Player B is Jonny Gomes, who is a DH and WAS worth 2 years @ $10 million...to Ben Cherington.


Victorino is a better hitter against righties, has good speed, and plays centerfield, thus opening up the ability to trade Ellsbury for pitching.

EDIT - And he has an awesome nickname

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #8: December 05, 2012, 10:57:23 AM »
I think you're missing my point, which is that it was silly for Ben Cherington to not take an extra year of Victorino for $5 million (which is what the Indians were offering).

It's like if Rizzo was so deadset on only giving LaRoche 2 years that he offered 2 years/$32 million or something just to avoid 3/$36. At a certain point, if you have to raise the AAV so much just offer the extra year.

Offline welch

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #9: December 05, 2012, 01:13:02 PM »
Bosox probably overpaid. Victorino has had a good career, but $13million per year for three years starting at 32 or 33 years old?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #10: December 05, 2012, 01:52:19 PM »
I'd rather a 3 year contract with a guy who is 32 than a 5 year contract, but the $13MM/ year seems high. Also, with his
<----
splits, he is the 3d regular or semiregular they have brought in who does not hit righties well.  There are strong suggestions this may be a prelude to an Ellsbury trade and that the Red Sox will continue to pursue another corner outfielder.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #11: December 05, 2012, 01:56:53 PM »
I'm inclined to move a lot of the victorino stuff to winter meetings day 2 thread because that is the day he signed.  Either that, or the MLB general thread in out of town.  I'm not seeing the Nats angle other than making us grateful that we have Span.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #12: December 05, 2012, 01:57:55 PM »
BSFF

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #13: December 05, 2012, 04:14:02 PM »
overpay.  lol @ red sox.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #14: December 06, 2012, 10:17:35 AM »
I think you're missing my point, which is that it was silly for Ben Cherington to not take an extra year of Victorino for $5 million (which is what the Indians were offering).

It's like if Rizzo was so deadset on only giving LaRoche 2 years that he offered 2 years/$32 million or something just to avoid 3/$36. At a certain point, if you have to raise the AAV so much just offer the extra year.
NJ - I suppose what the Sox did makes it easier for them to trade Victorino in 2014 or 2015 if Bradley / Brentz / Jacobs develop.  After 2014, they will only have $13MM obligation on the contract for the 2015 season.  If they had gone 4/ $44MM, then they would have had $22MM left for 2015 and 2016.

Offline sph274

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Re: Victorino to the Sawx - 3/$39MM
« Reply #15: August 24, 2013, 09:52:20 PM »
I am reassessing last offseason. Victorino has a bWAR of 4.4 and an FWAR of 4. Cherington not looking the fool so far