Poll

Who would you rather keep?

Adam LaRoche
68 (60.7%)
Michael Morse
44 (39.3%)

Total Members Voted: 112

Author Topic: Morse or LaRoche  (Read 30919 times)

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Offline blue911

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #325: November 21, 2012, 05:42:02 PM »
I enjoy a lot of what Cameron writes, particularly his analysis of free agent contracts and extensions, but he's way off here.

Should we expect his 2011 season every year? No. Is he a "mediocre player who shouldn't start on a contender"? Of course not, that's a laughable notion.
 
He comes across as second rate when compared to Mike Fast or Collin Wyers. He seems exasperated with players that don't conform to the models and tends to get snarky instead of inquisitive. 

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #326: November 21, 2012, 06:51:36 PM »
It's easy to forget how fearsome Morse was in 2011. Put that bat at First Base, and 90% of teams are satisfied.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #327: November 22, 2012, 05:49:09 PM »
Yeah I usually agree with Cameron but he's off base here and I'm not a huge Morse lover. When Morse is healthy, he hits the ball hard which is what accounts for his perpetually high BABIP. My only problem with him is that he doesn't walk so if his bat declines at all (which is a significant chance with his injury history and age) he's not very valuable with the bat (and he's certainly a negative in the field).

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #328: November 22, 2012, 08:54:37 PM »
It's easy to forget how fearsome Morse was in 2011. Put that bat at First Base, and 90% of teams are satisfied.

Morse missed two months and had a slow start. He stll has 400 AB's and hit .290. What is everyone nagin' about? His HR's were down but it took him about a month to power up. I would be happy with him at first and would shut my eyes when a ball is hit into the corner with him in LF.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #329: November 23, 2012, 02:58:36 AM »
Morse missed two months and had a slow start. He stll has 400 AB's and hit .290. What is everyone nagin' about? His HR's were down but it took him about a month to power up. I would be happy with him at first and would shut my eyes when a ball is hit into the corner with him in LF.

Morse was slightly above average with the stick last year. He managed a .291 average but only a .321 OBP due to a horrendous walk rate. Combine that with his decreased power and a solid Adam Dunn impression in the field and you have a player that's not that valuable.

This is the Morse that people are most recently associated with. Sure he was awesome in 2011 and I really think he has it in him to repeat that but only if he can stay healthy which is not something I'm sure he can manage.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #330: November 23, 2012, 12:38:15 PM »
I think some interesting insights can be taken from his split page on B-R from last year.

Toss around the caveats for small sample size on all of this, but you can see that:
1) his post All Star Break OPS jumped from .739 (pre) to .817 (post) while his batting average only bumped .003. Not exactly slugger territory in the OPS even post ASB, but it demonstrates that all of that bump was in being able draw a bit more walks (.016 OBP) and to be able to begin to get back to normal on his SLG (.061). 

2) Acknowledging #1, that SLG was still low in the 2d half (.491) relative to what we had been getting from Mikey Mo in 2010 (.519)  and 2011 (.550).   July (.486) and Sep/Oct (.510) look better than August (.449) (Small Sample Size warning again).  I don't remember the exact dates, but I recall he had a wrist problem at some point in the second half.  I'm guessing it was August. 

3) the  second half demonstrates the BABIP-driven OBP, as July and Sep August had high average (.305/.302) / better OBP (.345 / 330) than August (.255 / .295).  That said, it looks like August, with a BABIP of .288, is the outlier when compared to his 1700 career PAs (.344) rather than July (.360) or Sep /Oct. (.348).   

I'm sticking with the belief that a healthy Mikey Mo is going to get you an abnormally high BABIP for a slowish guy who hits a fair number of ground balls, will hit his .295 or so with have an OBP rate that is satisfactory but not good of .325+, and will slug .520+.  That's a pretty good likelihood of an .850+ OPS.  That's roughly top 25% of MLB and probably conservative.

I'd like him out of left field, where he can hurt himself running, if I can.  If I'm a GM, looking for short term help, and can play him at DH or first, I look to acquire him without giving up the farm.  He's a very nice insurance policy for ALR.


Offline PC

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #331: November 23, 2012, 06:14:12 PM »
The difference between Morse 2011 and Morse 2012 is not that great.

He batted .303 in 2011 and .291 in 2012.  He's batted around .300 in almost every one of his seasons.  His batting average is actually very consistent from season to season.

He missed the first two months of the season so he didn't have spring training.  Rather, the third month of the regular season was his spring training.  If you take two months away and add a third month of working to get into playing form, his 2011 numbers would look roughly like his 2012 numbers looked.

Add to that he's playing for a contract next year, I expect a huge season from Morse this year.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #332: November 23, 2012, 06:35:01 PM »
The difference between Morse 2011 and Morse 2012 is not that great.

He batted .303 in 2011 and .291 in 2012.  He's batted around .300 in almost every one of his seasons.  His batting average is actually very consistent from season to season.

He missed the first two months of the season so he didn't have spring training.  Rather, the third month of the regular season was his spring training.  If you take two months away and add a third month of working to get into playing form, his 2011 numbers would look roughly like his 2012 numbers looked.

Add to that he's playing for a contract next year, I expect a huge season from Morse this year.

Hitting for a similar average is meaningless if he's getting on base less and hitting for less power. The fact that he's horrendous in left just exacerbates the problem. He's better suited at first.

Offline PC

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #333: November 23, 2012, 07:37:36 PM »
Hitting for a similar average is meaningless if he's getting on base less and hitting for less power. The fact that he's horrendous in left just exacerbates the problem. He's better suited at first.

He walked marginally less last year than the previous year and his batting average in meaningful because...batting averages are meaningful.  The additional meaningfulness of his batting average is the consistency.  It's always about the same, above average.  The fact that he's a middle of the order hitter further magnifies his batting average, ie he hits in a place in the batting order where he's supposed to drive in runs.  Walking to first base is significantly less valuable for him and the team because of where he hits in the batting order.  Conversely, it wouldn't be a bad thing if he walked slightly more but I'm not going to hold this against him.

Also, he's not "hitting for less power".  He hit for less power last season than the previous season.  That's all.  There's no indication of any kind that he's in some sort of declining power death spiral.  It was just one year.  Step back from the ledge.

He's not a good left fielder, I will admit.  He's also not the first power hitting, who's a below average fielder.  And, yes, he's better suited at first but Adam LaRoche is even better suited at first.  In short, I'm unwilling to sacrifice Morse's walk year for the other options available.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #334: November 23, 2012, 07:54:36 PM »
Hitting for a similar average is meaningless if he's getting on base less and hitting for less power.

In 2011, he hit for 1 HR every 18.5 PAs (575/31).  Second half of 2012 he hit for 1 HR every 20.5 PAs (288/14).  That's pretty close to his peak year, considering he played some with a hurt wrist.  In 2010 he had 1 HR every 19.5 PAs.  Project him for a healthy 600 PAs and he will be around 30 HRs. 

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #335: November 23, 2012, 08:16:32 PM »
I suppose the lack of doubles can be explained away with qualifiers, as well.

Having said that, I can use small sample size to make any claim I want.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #336: November 23, 2012, 08:39:10 PM »
In 2011, he hit for 1 HR every 18.5 PAs (575/31).  Second half of 2012 he hit for 1 HR every 20.5 PAs (288/14).  That's pretty close to his peak year, considering he played some with a hurt wrist.  In 2010 he had 1 HR every 19.5 PAs.  Project him for a healthy 600 PAs and he will be around 30 HRs.

I agree that a healthy Morse is a beast. His couple healthy months last season support this. But the guy has been injured most of his career it seems, and he's not very valuable when he's hurt and can't drive the ball.

Offline PC

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #337: November 25, 2012, 07:38:04 AM »
Don't know if this has been posted but a couple of weeks ago, our good friend Keith Law posted his free agents rankings.  This was LaRoche's.  FYI, Jackson was ranked 8th.


Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #338: November 25, 2012, 02:49:14 PM »
WAR does not take into account that Morse can be replaced if we are ahead in the 8th or 9th, and kept in the lineup if we are tied or down. 

Over the last two years Morse has accumulated 5.47 WPA at the plate.  Desmond is second on the team at 3.69.  Over the last two years, for RE24, Morse is first with 51.54 ahead of R. Zim in second at 41.32.  He has a career OPS over 1 in 198 plate appearances in high leverage situations as defined by fangraphs.  Maybe you think these statistics are too influenced by luck, but if they aren't...

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #339: November 25, 2012, 02:51:20 PM »
WAR also overrated espy's offensive ability.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #340: November 25, 2012, 02:53:54 PM »
WAR also overrated espy's offensive ability.

Yes.  Danny had negative RE24 and WPA in 2012. 

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #341: November 25, 2012, 02:58:06 PM »
but his glove is sick

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #342: November 25, 2012, 03:31:01 PM »

Online imref

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #343: November 26, 2012, 12:39:16 PM »
bleacher report's 5 alternatives to LaRoche:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1421899-washington-nationals-5-moves-they-can-make-to-replace-adam-laroche/page/2

1. James Loney (similar batting average, nowhere near the power, bats LH)
2. Nick Swisher
3. Chris Marrero
4. Michael Morse
5. BJ Upton (suggesting that we trade Morse and move Moore to 1B)

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #344: November 26, 2012, 12:40:03 PM »
Chris Marrero :spaz:

Online imref

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #345: November 26, 2012, 12:44:03 PM »
Chris Marrero :spaz:

He looked like had .280/20 HR potential before the injury.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #346: November 26, 2012, 12:45:51 PM »
When was this? Cause Marrero has never shown that type of potential in the majors.

Online imref

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #347: November 26, 2012, 02:56:02 PM »
When was this? Cause Marrero has never shown that type of potential in the majors.

.300 / 14 HRs in his last full season in AAA before his injury (at age 22).  yeah, he only batted .248 in September of that year, but I don't think it's unreasonable, given his minor league progression, to think .280/20HR was doable.

I'm still pretty concerned about his injury though, he had no power last year in his trek through the minors.

Online Vega

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #348: November 26, 2012, 02:59:54 PM »
From what I remember about his time in the majors, Merrero looked like a freaking slap hitter with zero power. Do not want.

Online imref

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Re: Morse or LaRoche
« Reply #349: November 26, 2012, 03:02:59 PM »
From what I remember about his time in the majors, Merrero looked like a freaking slap hitter with zero power. Do not want.

100 ABs isn't a large enough sample size to reach any conclusions.  He was averaging 14-18 HRs a year with around a .450 SLG at each level before he got hurt, but remember, he was only 22 when he got called up.

I wouldn't be as worried about pre-injury Marrero as I am with post-injury Marrero.