2012 WNFF Top 30 Prospect List: #1 Prospect

[JCA-CrystalCity]

curious how far down Giolito gets whacked due to the TJ.  Probably still has the highest upside of our pitchers, but the uncertainty is clearly the greatest, too.

RD - Meyer hits his peak, Giolito hits his peak, who is better?

[Upark25]

I voted Giolito number 1. I base my rankings on pure ceiling not where or how they are performing down in the minors.

[HalfSmokes]

I voted Giolito number 1. I base my rankings on pure ceiling not where or how they are performing down in the minors.

wouldn't that be purke (granted he's not going to actually get there with his injuries, but if you discount those...)

[Kevrock]

Rendon.

[Upark25]

wouldn't that be purke (granted he's not going to actually get there with his injuries, but if you discount those...)

I think he definitely would be top 5 but it's a pretty sure bet that Purke was a gamble we are going to lose.

[zimm_da_kid]

wouldn't that be purke (granted he's not going to actually get there with his injuries, but if you discount those...)

It would be giolito.  I'd say he has the highest upside in our system too

[tomterp]

I edited the poll to allow posters to change their votes if they want.  Else, why post arguments?

Linty, let me know if disagree, but generally it seems preferable in polls to allow folks to change if they find a counterargument persuasive.

[blue911]

I wonder what the list would look like if it was a countdown poll.

[sportsfan882]

curious how far down Giolito gets whacked due to the TJ.  Probably still has the highest upside of our pitchers, but the uncertainty is clearly the greatest, too.

RD - Meyer hits his peak, Giolito hits his peak, who is better?

Giolito. I'm considering him for #2 on this list.

[RD]

curious how far down Giolito gets whacked due to the TJ.  Probably still has the highest upside of our pitchers, but the uncertainty is clearly the greatest, too.

RD - Meyer hits his peak, Giolito hits his peak, who is better?

That's a great question. One I never really thought about. Hard to differentiate because both have power stuff to be legitimate aces. I don't know if I could really set the two apart if each reaches their potential.

I guess the only opinion I can offer is who I think is more likely to reach their potential. Hard to go against Meyer's early success, but I'd say Gio even with the TJ. He's much more advanced at an early stage, and won't have to constantly battle his body for his command. I also think his change is more likely to develop asba result, giving him a more well rounded repertoire.

But both could be similarly dominant with their skills if they reach their potential.

[zimm_da_kid]

I'd say Giolito has the higher upside and chance to reach it.  Meyer still could end up in the pen.  Giolito could have been the first high school righty taken number 1 overall.  They both have fastballs that hit triple digits so we'll call that a draw.  Both have plus breaking pitches, for meyer a slider and for giolito a curve.  Giolito has the plus change which separates him from meyer, who only has a fringe-average change with average potential.  What really puts Giolito at another level is his control, which meyer currently lacks.  If you couple that with Giolito's prototypical workhorse frame, then you have a guy who looks like the second coming of Verlander.

[RD]

A lot of the Gio talk was just hype. You're talking about an HS righty from Southern California that hit 100. That in itself generates a lot of hype. But also the talk about him making history as the first HS righty to go #1. just a lot more talk about Gio. I'm not saying the talk or hype isn't justified, just saying, he's a kid who's gotten a lot of talk.

Compared to a kid from Indiana who went to Kentucky for college ball ... Just not the same level of attention.

When you look at the stuff and talent, the two are VERY similar. You're talking two guys can consistently go 95-96 and gas it up to 100 on occasion. Gio goes straight over the top to make it hard to hit, while Meyer comes a bit lower, but from a 6'9 height. Their breaking balls are legitimate out pitches. Different pitches, but I'd say both are similar in effectiveness. Both need work on that 3rd pitch, the change. I wouldn't say Gios is a plus pitch. He hasn't used it enough IMO. I wouldn't say either is ever going to have a great change and both need work on it.

Hype aside, I think the skill sets are very similar. That's why I say it's hard for me to differentiate, assuming both reach their potential. Elite fastballs, great breaking balls, and good enough change to be dominant. Maybe Gio develops a better change, who knows.

I just think history suggests guys Meyer's size battle command issues, whereas, Gio has the prototypical frame, like you say. Youth is clearly on Gios side as well. He's MUCH further along than Meyer was coming out of HS. He could be in the bigs by the time he reaches Meyer's age.

But in a dream world, Meyer does develop consistent mechanics and release point and matches Gio on stuff as well. That's why I offered an opinion of who I think is more likely to reach his potential. Gios size makes it easier tobrepeat his deliverynwhich helps command, and will help with the change up.

[zimm_da_kid]

RD, i would care to disagree with you when it comes to giolito's change up.  I have read numerous times that his change is already above average to plus or is average and will develop into plus.

[HalfSmokes]

I'd disagree that youth is on his side,  every level that a prospect goes to is another potential road block,  Meyer has gone through more than Gio

[RD]

RD, i would care to disagree with you when it comes to giolito's change up.  I have read numerous times that his change is already above average to plus or is average and will develop into plus.

I dont pretend to have seen the kid pitch in person to get a feel for his change myself. But I do think internet scouting reports in general are always a little too glowing. In Giolito's case, we're talking about a kid who really didn't pitch much as a senior. You think he's thrown the change enough through his junior year of HS, for anyone to have a true feel for its advancement? I believe he's flashed a plus change at times, but consistency is the issue. A lot of people can throw a great pitch every now and then. I know I had a terrible curveball but every now and then Id buckle some knees. Maybe Im a bit cautious in assuming a kid with experience really only at the level of a HS junior doesn't have a great feel for a change. But, I have also read reports that say it needs work.

This article does talk about it's potential, but specifically mentions problems locating it:

The change-up he loves to throw was 82 here, usually 82-83, and it’s a straight change that often misses up where stronger hitters are going to maul it.

http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/02/27/lucas-giolito-update#more-15452

Another one that says there is potential there, but it's not a plus yet. 50 is average, and he's got him at 30 now, with room to get to 50:

Change-up (CH): Hasn’t needed it much in high school. Shows good feel for pitch when he throws it. Same arm slot as FB. Typically maintains FB arm speed well, but has some slowing at times. Pitch flashes occasional good sink w/ similar angle to FB. Potential average pitch at least, and possibly plus with considerable work and development by pro development staff. Grade – 30/50

http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/05/08/scouting-report-lucas-giolito-rhp/

This one just talks about how its not used much, which IMO, means its tough to grade:

Giolito throws a change up on rare occasions but that isn’t really a present consideration in evaluating him.

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=268321

I know there are others out there, but thats just a couple. I also know that there are some that say he has a plus change. I guess it all depends on who's doing the evaluating. And, the timing of the evaluation. Was this a one time thing? Was he caught on a good day? Bad day? Especially with an HSer, and a third pitch like a change up, the day you see him could give you two grades on opposite ends of the spectrum.

I tend to go with the cautious side in grading his change up, just because I don't believe he's used it enough to have the correct arm angle, speed, and command of it yet. That's a typical knock on HSers of course, so it's not a negative. Just saying, I don't think we can call his change up a plus or a positive just yet.  In reading multiple reports, Meyer seems to be in the same boat. Now of course, there is more concern for him to be three years older with college experience and still not having command of it, but Meyer is extremely raw and has height issues that have him behind the curve. So I wouldn't just ignore that in his evaluation. He's still got time and upside left in his change and development.