Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 74457 times)

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Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2775: December 08, 2012, 12:36:04 PM »
I think the Nats have enough injured young pitchers.  I wouldn't want to trade more to get another one. 

Here is the list of 2014 free agents - We might just end up picking from this list like we've done the past two seasons -

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html

Starting pitchers

Bronson Arroyo (37)
Scott Baker (32)
Nick Blackburn (32) - $8MM club option
A.J. Burnett (37)
Chris Capuano (35) - $8MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Chris Carpenter (39)
Bruce Chen (37)
Bartolo Colon (41)
Jorge De La Rosa (33)
R.A. Dickey (39)
Scott Feldman (30)
Gavin Floyd (31)
Jeff Francis (33)
Matt Garza (30)
Roy Halladay (37) - $20MM vesting option
Jason Hammel (31)
Aaron Harang (36) - $7MM+ mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Dan Haren (33)
Tim Hudson (38)
Phil Hughes (28)
Ubaldo Jimenez (30) - may void $8MM option for 2014
Josh Johnson (30)
Hiroki Kuroda (39)
Jon Lester (30) - $13MM club option with a $250K buyout
Colby Lewis (34)
Ted Lilly (38)
Tim Lincecum (30)
Paul Maholm (32)
Jason Marquis (35)
Ricky Nolasco (31)
Andy Pettitte (42)
Wandy Rodriguez (35) - $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Ervin Santana (31)
Johan Santana (34) - $25MM club option with a $5.5MM buyout
James Shields (32) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jason Vargas (31)
Edinson Volquez (30)
Tsuyoshi Wada (33) - $5MM club option
Barry Zito (36) - $18MM vesting option with a $7MM buyout


Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html#R8eAgIey49jfTRFY.99


I don't want any of those guys. Not for the money they're going to command.

Bauer isn't injured (got it wrong) but he has that long toss program that the DBacks don't like. He'll be 22 next year. He has options. Send him to Triple A, let Haren pitch the season. If someone is injured (knock on wood) we have a better option than Zach Duke. Worst case scenario, Bauer is 23 when he's ready to pitch a full season in the bigs. He gives us a cost effective number 3/4 starter and the youngest, best pitching staff in baseball.

I don't think Danny will ever figure it out and I think last year was a bit flukish for Ian Desmond. Either one of them would do for Bauer and another prospect.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2776: December 08, 2012, 12:48:13 PM »
If someone never figures it out and routinely posts 3.8 WAR they had the ceiling of a HOF.

Danny doesn't have that ceiling. But anyone that compares pre-breakout Desmond and Danny doesn't have a clue as to what they are talking about.

Desmond was routinely one of the worst rated SS's in baseball prior to his breakout. Danny is already a 1st division 2B, warts and all.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2777: December 08, 2012, 12:54:20 PM »
If someone never figures it out and routinely posts 3.8 WAR they had the ceiling of a HOF.
Either that or that is the best they can do. His defense is the only thing that is carrying him. His bat is horrid. Drop in slugging, drop in walk rate, increase in strikeouts. He's basically Rick Ankiel.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2778: December 08, 2012, 12:58:23 PM »
I know see where the troll comparison come from.

Rick Ankiel. :lmao:

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2779: December 08, 2012, 01:06:42 PM »
Poor average, low OBP, Some pop, a lot of strikeouts, and good defense. Who am I describing?

I just think Espinosa is one of those players that proves that WAR is a flawed measurement of a player. Espinosa is a bad hitter who has some power. He's a very good defender at second and an above average to good defender at shortstop, from what little we saw last  season.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2780: December 08, 2012, 01:11:02 PM »
Ankiel in 2011 had a wRC+ of 82, or 18% worse than an average hitter. Espinosa in his worst year with the bat was still at 94, 12% better thank Ankiel. Speed and defense makes up for his near league average offense.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2781: December 08, 2012, 01:15:20 PM »
Ankiel in 2011 had a wRC+ of 82, or 18% worse than an average hitter. Espinosa in his worst year with the bat was still at 94, 12% better thank Ankiel. Power, speed and defense makes up for his near league average offense.

And of our current starting lineup, who is the worst hitter? Espinosa. By a lot. If Rendon hadn't been hurt and had gotten time at second base, we'd all be talking about what we could get for Espinosa.

Espinosa for Bauer and, maybe, a small piece. Lombo starts the season at second, Rendon comes up in mid-season to challenge for rookie of year.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2782: December 08, 2012, 01:22:30 PM »
I think people underestimate just how much better Espinosa is than Lombo.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2783: December 08, 2012, 01:23:54 PM »
I don't. I know he's a better defender. Their bats are wildly different.

I think WAR overestimates how valuable Espinosa is.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2784: December 08, 2012, 01:26:22 PM »
Lombo's wRC+ was 83 last year, 11% worse than Espinosa's.

Just because he puts the bat on the ball doesn't make him better. He has no power and he doesn't walk.

In certain situations where the Nats need contact, he works, but over 600 PA's, Espinosa will prove more valuable with the bat.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2785: December 08, 2012, 01:31:27 PM »
Poor average, low OBP, Some pop, a lot of strikeouts, and good defense. Who am I describing?

I just think Espinosa is one of those players that proves that WAR is a flawed measurement of a player. Espinosa is a bad hitter who has some power. He's a very good defender at second and an above average to good defender at shortstop, from what little we saw last  season.
Ian Desmond circa a year ago.  It's a similar conversation.  DE strikes out a bit more, but plays better defense, but they're similar stat lines.

Offline blue911

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2786: December 08, 2012, 01:32:32 PM »
Espinosa's ISO decreased from .179 to .155 in 2012. Mostly due to his stint in the #2 slot in which he had 2 extra base hits and a .053 ISO. I think the "drop in power" is being grossly overstated. He had 56 extra base hits in 2012 which is 1 more than he had in 2011. Strangely he had the exact same amount of plate appearances.


Offline Vega

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2787: December 08, 2012, 01:34:04 PM »
What the Lego is wRC+?

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2788: December 08, 2012, 01:36:41 PM »
Debateable. All I know is when Lombo get's everyday playing time, he hits pretty well. Yes, a lack of power, but we have plenty of power on this team. With a legit leadoff hitter in Span, we need to figure out a way to get him over. Lombo's bat would be good in the two hole.

Against RH starters he hit .292/.334/.386. He and Danny OPS'd virtually the same. But Lombo didn't strike out almost 30% of the time.  Frankly, at the very least, Lombo is a better hitter against righties.

Regardless, I think our best trade option would be to partner with the Rangers and work a three team trade.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2789: December 08, 2012, 01:37:43 PM »
Runs created compared to league average. 100 is league average.


Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2790: December 08, 2012, 01:37:50 PM »
What the Lego is wRC+?

Weight Runs Created

The plus means it's park and league adjusted

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2791: December 08, 2012, 01:39:40 PM »
Ian Desmond circa a year ago.  It's a similar conversation.  DE strikes out a bit more, but plays better defense, but they're similar stat lines.

Interesting isn't it? One had a terrible WAR, the other has a good WAR. What's the difference? One plays defense well, the other doesn't.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2792: December 08, 2012, 01:41:26 PM »
.672 is in no way comparable to .717

I imagine if it was reversed you'd claim it was a massive disparity. And you'd be right.

Offline welch

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2793: December 08, 2012, 01:42:07 PM »
Either that or that is the best they can do. His defense is the only thing that is carrying him. His bat is horrid. Drop in slugging, drop in walk rate, increase in strikeouts. He's basically Rick Ankiel.

He is Don Lock: fine CF; enough homers to give fans some hope; a million K's; mediocre average. Maybe Espinosa is good enough, and certainly he fields well enough at 2B and SS to carry on the team. I'm not yet convinced he ought to start at 2B. (In the Don Lock comparison, Unser was an improvement.)

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2794: December 08, 2012, 01:44:01 PM »
Pre-breakout Desmond's BEST OPS was .700.

Danny's WORST OPS has been .717

As I said, anyone that compares the two really hasn't looked at their stats.

Offline Vega

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2795: December 08, 2012, 01:45:12 PM »
Pre-breakout Desmond's BEST OPS was .700.

Danny's WORST OPS has been .717

As I said, anyone that compares the two really hasn't looked at their stats hyper obscure weird stats that only Linty knows exist.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2796: December 08, 2012, 01:45:50 PM »
.672 is in no way comparable to .717

I imagine if it was reversed you'd claim it was a massive disparity. And you'd be right.
There are disparities on both sides of the argument.  the 189/139 number sticks out too.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2797: December 08, 2012, 01:47:55 PM »
OPS is an obscure stat now?

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2798: December 08, 2012, 01:48:55 PM »
Poor average, low OBP, Some pop, a lot of strikeouts, and good defense. Who am I describing?

I just think Espinosa is one of those players that proves that WAR is a flawed measurement of a player. Espinosa is a bad hitter who has some power. He's a very good defender at second and an above average to good defender at shortstop, from what little we saw last  season.

A more accurate description of Espinosa's offensive value would be:
Poor average, average OBP, great pop for his position, a lot of strikeouts, and excellent defense at both middle infield positions. If you don't see how that's worth 3+ wins than you are grossly overestimating the offensive capabilities of middle infielders around the league.

Espinosa is much better than pre 2012 Desmond both with his glove and bat. Desmond failed at everything except baserunning. The only thing Espi is truly bad at is making contact.

Offline Vega

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2799: December 08, 2012, 01:50:51 PM »
OPS is an obscure stat now?
I'm just mocking you in general. 8)