2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread

[zimm_da_kid]

I'm starting to really like pagan, especially if it's a 2 year deal

[Vega]

I was thinking Clippard plus something for Walden.

Why the Lego would we do that? Swapping one young-ish, solid late inning reliever for another makes no sense.

[Mattionals]

Stop playing the lefty/rightly game. IT DOES NOT MATTER IF THE RIGHTY CAN HIT LHP. I don't know how I can be more clear.
 
And why can't Werth lead off for the next 3 years?  Surely you're not expecting Goodwin with his over 25% K rate to do it. The only thing Werth can do is hit leadoff at this point. He's regressing as a hitter, he's slowing down, and his defense leaves much to be desired. But he can work a count. Leadoff or 8 hole hitter is where he is best utilized.

He put up a 26.9% K rate in only 42 games of AA and he skipped high A ball.  Surely it has nothing to do with him seeing highly competitive pitching for the first time in his life.  Werth is not going to be a lead off hitter for 4 more years.  He will be moved down in the order because.  Just because he takes a lot of pitches, well scouting reports say the same thing about Goodwin.  Goodwin is 22 and has tons of upside.  Werth is going to decline, you said it yourself.

Having too many right handed hitters is not an issue against lefties, that is a benefit.  It is good to have symmetry in the lineup because it keeps RHP on their toes.  They have a harder time finding a groove if the lineup changes right to left.  This is a mindfact, but many managers and GM's don't like to be RH or LH heavy.  This year's Nats were praised many times for having a nicely balanced L/R lineup.

[Kevrock]

Stop playing the lefty/rightly game. IT DOES NOT MATTER IF THE RIGHTY CAN HIT LHP. I don't know how I can be more clear.

As clear as this was, most righties can hit LHP.

He's regressing as a hitter, he's slowing down, and his defense leaves much to be desired. But he can work a count. Leadoff or 8 hole hitter is where he is best utilized.

Disagree completely, and assuming this is just a troll.

[hammondsnats]

i've always been convinced slateman is 110% a troll

[Slateman]

He put up a 26.9% K rate in only 42 games of AA and he skipped high A ball.  Surely it has nothing to do with him seeing highly competitive pitching for the first time in his life.  Werth is not going to be a lead off hitter for 4 more years.  He will be moved down in the order because.  Just because he takes a lot of pitches, well scouting reports say the same thing about Goodwin.  Goodwin is 22 and has tons of upside.  Werth is going to decline, you said it yourself.

Having too many right handed hitters is not an issue against lefties, that is a benefit.  It is good to have symmetry in the lineup because it keeps RHP on their toes.  They have a harder time finding a groove if the lineup changes right to left.  This is a mindfact, but many managers and GM's don't like to be RH or LH heavy.  This year's Nats were praised many times for having a nicely balanced L/R lineup.

Also had a 26% K rate in rookie ball. Posted a similar number in the AFL. I think we should come to the reality that Goodwin is going to be a high strikeout guy (much like Curtis Granderson). Then again, so is Werth. Myers, on the other hand, has posted a K rate higher than 22% once and still maintained a 10% or higher walk rate. He is heads and shoulders a better hitting prospect (and an overall better prospect) than Goodwin. His ceiling is higher. He's going to crush 30 home runs and he could easily hit .300. Basically, take Mike Morse's best season and add decent defense in LF.

Goodwin alone wouldn't net us Lester/Shields. Myers alone could get the Royals Lester/Shields.

Werth will decline but the last thing to go will be his batter's eye and abilty to work walks. He'll become a contact hitter. So basically, he'll hit leadoff or number 8.

[Tyler Durden]

Ibanez is an example of a similar player who never became a contact hitter.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml

[Tyler Durden]

Also, Goodwin has been compared to Bourn as much as anybody and he is a very solid leadoff hitter.

[Tyler Durden]

Vega - swapping Clippard for Walden would save a ton of cash.  I also think Clippard has possibly been overused over the last couple of years and may not be a good bet to continue being as good as he has been.

[Slateman]

Also, Goodwin has been compared to Bourn as much as anybody and he is a very solid leadoff hitter.

Oh yea he's just like Bourn. If Bourn werent' as fast. And could hit for power. And hit for a lower average. And struck out more. But other than that, he's just like him.

Vega - swapping Clippard for Walden would save a ton of cash. I also think Clippard has possibly been overused over the last couple of years and may not be a good bet to continue being as good as he has been.

Relievers have naturally short lifespans. I agree that Clippard is coming to the end of his. His stock will never be higher than it will be now. If he's capable halfway through the season (and the front office isn't stupid enough to try and turn Garcia in to a starter) then he should be some good trade bait.

[tomterp]

i've always been convinced slateman is 110% a troll

Yeah, he always posts all that "Lerners are cheap" stuff just to needlessly annoy other posters.

 

[Terpfan76]

I haven't seen much to make me think that Werth is a liability in the outfield, on the contrary, I think he's quite good out there, not GG caliber, but he's rarely gonna cost you a game. Is it also possible that his decrease in power numbers had to do with his injury and his new roll in the line up? Perhaps Davey suggested he work more on getting on base as opposed to attempting to drive runs in? Whatever the case may be, Davey deserves the benefit of the doubt in all things regarding the line up.

[Tyler Durden]

http://www.masnsports.com/byron_kerr/2011/08/boras-goodwin-reminds-him-of-michael-bourn.html

Here is the agent for both Goodwin and Bourn comparing the two. 

[cmdterps44]

I've heard people complain that Werth is slow. I just think it's his lanky form that makes it look that way.

[Slateman]

I haven't seen much to make me think that Werth is a liability in the outfield, on the contrary, I think he's quite good out there, not GG caliber, but he's rarely gonna cost you a game. Is it also possible that his decrease in power numbers had to do with his injury and his new roll in the line up? Perhaps Davey suggested he work more on getting on base as opposed to attempting to drive runs in? Whatever the case may be, Davey deserves the benefit of the doubt in all things regarding the line up.

UZR/DRS the last three years:
2010: -3.1/-2
2011: 1.0/-4
2012: -7.7/-7

Or we can go with the straight eyeball test which is that he's not good. His decrease in power is due more to playing away from Philly's Little League stadium. And he's always had nice high walk rates.

http://www.masnsports.com/byron_kerr/2011/08/boras-goodwin-reminds-him-of-michael-bourn.html

Here is the agent for both Goodwin and Bourn comparing the two.

A sports agent!?!?! Find me a real scout please. Not someone who is trying to get his client a crap ton of money.

[monkeyhit]

http://www.masnsports.com/byron_kerr/2011/08/boras-goodwin-reminds-him-of-michael-bourn.html

Here is the agent for both Goodwin and Bourn comparing the two.

So why pay a fortune for Bourne if you have a younger version a year or two away from replacing him?

[Tyler Durden]

Ha.  How about message board expert's opinion?  How much is that worth?

[HalfSmokes]

generally speaking I would expect people who follow a team closely to know more about that team's players and prospects than most general baseball media people. It's not like they have any proprietary data (and to the extent that they do - is it really better than publicly available info?). I'd trust Linty about Goodwin far more than most writers

[Slateman]

Ha.  How about message board expert's opinion?  How much is that worth?

More than someone's who is financially tied to the player in question. He's like Michael Bourn in that he's fast, black, and plays center field

http://baseballnewshound.com/?p=3456 -  Ray Lankford, Andy Van Slyke, Devon White, Michael Tucker
http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2856 - Projects him as at least a 15 homer guy, which puts him about 5 times as many homers as Bourn usually gets.
http://baseballdraftreport.com/tag/brian-goodwin/ - Compares to Bernie Williams
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1357788-the-next-mike-trout-byron-buxton-brian-goodwin-david-dahl-have-what-it-takes - Hell, that compares him to Trout

So why pay a fortune for Bourne if you have a younger version a year or two away from replacing him?

Because the Lerners are che- oh, wait

 

[hammondsnats]

tomterp i complain about the ownership not doing enough to provide the resources for a successful franchise.  i'm not the only one. 

even the biggest werth haters will tell you last year he was very productive.

big difference. 

[NationalHeat]

tomterp i complain about the ownership not doing enough to provide the resources for a successful franchise.  i'm not the only one. 

even the biggest werth haters will tell you last year he was very productive.

big difference. 

They went over slot to sign all these prospects and blue chip young players we have. Plus, they've locked up Gio and Zim for a long time. I really don't understand this argument anymore 

[Slateman]

They went over slot to sign all these prospects and blue chip young players we have. Plus, they've locked up Gio and Zim for a long time. I really don't understand this argument anymore 

Shhh ... don't bring in logic during a dogmatic arguement. Some people just like to keep banging the same drum all day.

[HalfSmokes]

They went over slot to sign all these prospects and blue chip young players we have. Plus, they've locked up Gio and Zim for a long time. I really don't understand this argument anymore 

if you want to make the argument, a 2012 pay roll at the bottom of the division may be a starting point (granted, we'll move into second next year). I still want to see us lock up Zimmermann, but I expect them to try this off season

[hammondsnats]

nationalheat ... it's not top 10 payroll, is it?

what about all the years of them putting out laughable payrolls with laughable rosters ...

and there is still work to be done to get some of our own guys locked up (plus add some pieces).  c'mon now.

[NationalHeat]

if you want to make the argument, a 2012 pay roll at the bottom of the division may be a starting point (granted, we'll move into second next year). I still want to see us lock up Zimmermann, but I expect them to try this off season

I look at it as spending money VERY wisely.

Outside of Greinke, is there any FA out there (big money player) who would absolutely, without-a-doubt make our team THAT much better? Including ALR on this, I've expressed my opinion on him so what beat a dead horse. Also going to assume Hamilton is not of interest to us, because he doesn't make sense positionally.

Unless we gear up to really try and sign Greinke, I'm perfectly cool with having a quiet offseason. No need to overpay for Bourn, ALR, hell even Sean Burnett. These, to me, are bit players, and we can do without them.