Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 93651 times)

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Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1800: November 16, 2012, 11:34:19 AM »
What does this have to do with anything?

Desmond isn't losing his job.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1801: November 16, 2012, 11:34:51 AM »
There was a two week period where he couldn't do crap. He was bunting because he couldn't swing.

Baseball players do go through slumps. The only slump I can see during this year was the beginning of June where he hit .195 in 42 PA's. He played another two months after that until he went down at the end of July. From the slump till that point, he hit .299 with a .347 OBP.

If anything, I think (hope) he might have found himself this year since he pretty much hit consistently throughout the year pre and post injury aside from a slump. But again, it was only one year so this 4th year will be interesting.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1802: November 16, 2012, 11:37:26 AM »
does it matter? If he regresses, deal with it then, no batter coming off a silver slugger year should have his place in danger

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1803: November 16, 2012, 11:40:12 AM »
does it matter? If he regresses, deal with it then, no batter coming off a silver slugger year should have his place in danger

Yep.

Offline GSW

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1804: November 16, 2012, 11:41:18 AM »
I thought that was  Espinosa, when he hit from the Left side?

Offline BigMeech

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1805: November 16, 2012, 01:52:49 PM »
Has Rizzo's lazy ass signed any elite players yet?

Offline imref

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1806: November 16, 2012, 03:47:53 PM »
Blue Jays going all out.

I could have lived with that deal and not re-signing Laroche ....

The Yankees are going to get Greinke and Hamilton now, I don't see them standing pat.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1807: November 16, 2012, 04:10:59 PM »
I'm not saying that won't happen, but the Yankees have serious luxury tax problems.

They're currently going to pay a 50% tax in 2013 (and every subsequent year) if they exceed the threshold. Under the new CBA, they'll reset to 17.5% if they get under the cap for one year. They'll also get money back from revenue sharing that they're currently penalized for being over the threshold as well.

So basically, if the cap's $190 million, the Yankees can either (a) get below $190 million and reset themselves or (b) stay up at at $215 million or so where they've been the last couple of years and really pay more like $250 million.

Even for the Yankees, $60 million (and probably $150+ million in chained benefits based on lower tax rates as they increase payroll again) is a substantial amount of money.

But there's not a whole lot they can do in the near-term to do to get below that threshold, unless they refrain from signing new players.

And as much as the Yankees would love to sign Josh Hamilton for 5/$125 million, Brian Cashman is smart enough to understand that Hamilton for 5/$275 million (what I'm approximating the cost is if signing Hamilton keeps them over the luxury tax threshold for the next five seasons) is a bad deal.

Online zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1808: November 16, 2012, 09:24:13 PM »
Quote
Giancarlo Stanton is still upset about the Marlins' sudden rebuild, telling Peter Gammons of MLB.com that "former Marlins come back and they warn us" about the club's history of firesales and that it is a constant source of discussion amongst current players.  "This is the 'winning philosophy?' Then to say it's not about money? What is the motivation? There comes a breaking point. I know how I feel. I can't imagine how the city and the fans feel," Stanton said.

Online tomterp

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1809: November 16, 2012, 09:52:16 PM »
I'm not saying that won't happen, but the Yankees have serious luxury tax problems.

They're currently going to pay a 50% tax in 2013 (and every subsequent year) if they exceed the threshold. Under the new CBA, they'll reset to 17.5% if they get under the cap for one year. They'll also get money back from revenue sharing that they're currently penalized for being over the threshold as well.

So basically, if the cap's $190 million, the Yankees can either (a) get below $190 million and reset themselves or (b) stay up at at $215 million or so where they've been the last couple of years and really pay more like $250 million.



To be clear, what you mean to say is that they would pay 50% on amounts OVER the threshold of $189m or whatever it is for 2013, not on the entire amount.

In your example, if the threshold is $190m and they are at $215m, they would pay 50% of the delta ($25m x  0.5= $12.5m), or $12.5m, for a total of $227.5m.   Doesn't seem much of a penalty to me, am I missing something?    :shrug:

Here's a discussion about the Yanks and the threshold situation, but it isn't clear either.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-effects-of-the-luxury-tax/

Online Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1810: November 16, 2012, 11:44:21 PM »
Melky on a one year deal would have been great.  Is it me who is naïve to think that Rendon will likely open 2014 at 3B with Zimm over at 1B?  I'd rather Zim stay a bit healthier and be an elite 1B than be a an injury prone elite 3B.  That is all again a mindfact that Rendon will break down less than Zimm, which is hard to pinpoint right now.

I'm actually ok with not getting another bat and utilizing one of our options as a platoon in either LF or at 1B.  LF would be Bernadina/Moore with Morse at 1B or a platoon on 1B that someone (JCA?) suggested with Moore and Tracy.  Brings a lefty bat into the lineup when needed, and against a lefty, brings up a strong right handed bat.

Online Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1811: November 17, 2012, 12:19:29 AM »
Melky on a one year deal would have been great.  Is it me who is naïve to think that Rendon will likely open 2014 at 3B with Zimm over at 1B?  I'd rather Zim stay a bit healthier and be an elite 1B than be a an injury prone elite 3B.  That is all again a mindfact that Rendon will break down less than Zimm, which is hard to pinpoint right now.

I'm actually ok with not getting another bat and utilizing one of our options as a platoon in either LF or at 1B.  LF would be Bernadina/Moore with Morse at 1B or a platoon on 1B that someone (JCA?) suggested with Moore and Tracy.  Brings a lefty bat into the lineup when needed, and against a lefty, brings up a strong right handed bat.

The back up plan to the Rendon/Zimmerman injury is that whoever is healthy moves tks third, Moore plays first, and Lombo/Bernie/ Goodwin take the open outfield spot


Offline blue911

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1812: November 17, 2012, 01:13:44 AM »
To be clear, what you mean to say is that they would pay 50% on amounts OVER the threshold of $189m or whatever it is for 2013, not on the entire amount.

In your example, if the threshold is $190m and they are at $215m, they would pay 50% of the delta ($25m x  0.5= $12.5m), or $12.5m, for a total of $227.5m.   Doesn't seem much of a penalty to me, am I missing something?    :shrug:

Here's a discussion about the Yanks and the threshold situation, but it isn't clear either.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-effects-of-the-luxury-tax/


She wrote another article on the 14th that explained that there are other penalties for exceeding the tax threshold.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1813: November 17, 2012, 03:49:50 AM »
Supposedly we've been talking to BJ Upton more than we have before.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1814: November 17, 2012, 10:27:09 AM »
Good to hear about Upton.  He's a solid player.  Kind of in the Espinosa mold - strikeouts, good defense, good power for his position.  It's looking like Goodwin might end up a similar type player if his AFL numbers are any indication.  I'd be fine with either LaRoche or Morse at 1B if we get Upton but we'd be very right-handed heavy with Morse.  Werth would need to lead off again.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1815: November 17, 2012, 10:30:32 AM »
K machines exacerbate slumps and are too streaky to be reliable- unless they also move Espinosa,  we already have enough ks

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1816: November 17, 2012, 10:43:36 AM »
I don't know - he'd be replacing another high K player in Morse or LaRoche but he'd be dramatically improving the outfield defense.  Nats could have one of the best defenses in the majors if we keep LaRoche and get a true CF like Upton or Bourn.  Great defense, great starting pitching, solid bullpen, and a good enough offense (could be better if Harper makes a Trout-like leap, Zim stays healthy, and a couple of other if's) - that sounds like a recipe for success to me.

Victorino or Pagan might work - less K's but less power as well.  3 years might be required for either of those guys.

Offline blue911

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1817: November 17, 2012, 11:58:23 AM »
Old-Timers used to say that Babe Ruth struck out too often, so strikeouts alone aren't the problem. What should be a real cause for concern is B.J.'s increasing rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, lower BB%,highest K% and an increase in his pop up%. Being primarily a fly ball hitter, he isn't going to get a lot of lucky bounce hits so it will be difficult for his average to make up for the lack of selectivity at the plate. Aging will cause his defensive range to diminish as well. He never put it together in Tampa with all of the hitter friendly,mediocre staffs, I can't see the NL East (well maybe Philly) being all that kind to his game.

Offline imref

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1818: November 17, 2012, 03:37:52 PM »
Supposedly we've been talking to BJ Upton more than we have before.

They reported it in MLB tv a little while ago (that we are talking to him)

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1819: November 17, 2012, 05:06:16 PM »
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/30898/where-will-michael-bourn-end-up

This was a good, in depth look at Bourn.  Looks at how CFs with speed age into their early 30's.  Also talks about how unique Bourn is as a guy with speed who gets on base a lot and steals lots of bases but still K's a lot.

Quote
The trouble with projecting Bourn's future is there really haven't been any players like him. I did search for all players since 1990 who, in their age 26 to 29 years, struck out at least 400 times, stole at least 100 bases and hit fewer than 35 home runs. There was only one: Bourn. We could compare Bourn to other fast, low-power guys such as Pierre, Ichiro Suzuki, Rafael Furcal, Chone Figgins and so on, but we get to the problem that none of them struck with near the frequency of Bourn.

Certainly, the Carl Crawford (a somewhat similar player) contract of two years ago will scare off many teams. Figgins was older (32) when he signed with Seattle, but that's another scary free-agent deal for a similar player. On the other hand, Ichiro compiled 23.5 WAR from age 30 to 33 and Kenny Lofton 19.2 WAR over that age.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1820: November 17, 2012, 05:32:13 PM »
I'm scared to touch Bourn. I'd rather BJ Upton or stick the course with Bryce in center.

Offline welch

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1821: November 17, 2012, 05:43:08 PM »
The team needs a starting pitcher, since Jackson is gone, but Harper will improve in CF, Bernadina fills in, and they need a spot for Moore. No great need for OF.

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1822: November 17, 2012, 08:59:56 PM »
stick the course with Bryce in center.


Online sportsfan882

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1823: November 18, 2012, 09:45:37 AM »
This has got to be the most boring offseason we have had in quite a long time. When's the Rule V draft?

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #1824: November 18, 2012, 10:33:08 AM »
This has got to be the most boring offseason we have had in quite a long time.
That's a good thing!