Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 69772 times)

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Online Kevrock

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #450: October 18, 2012, 09:57:39 AM »
Zimmerman has been healthy one season out of the last five. Oh, and the dude is having serious issues throwing to first.


This is such a nebulous claim. Where are you drawing the line for a "healthy" season? 146 games? Convenient drawing the line at 5 seasons as well.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #451: October 18, 2012, 09:58:45 AM »

Eh, I don't think he's going to be that much of a slugging threat. He'll have a low average and low walk rate. I'm thinking Ike Davis.


.513 this year puts him nicely between Jay Bruce and Ian Desmond, 31 homers in A ball in 2010, 31 in AA in 2011, and a .653 SLG when he was playing full time in AAA last year- I wouldn't bet against him at this point (unless you think he's already peaked)

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #452: October 18, 2012, 10:05:14 AM »
This is such a nebulous claim. Where are you drawing the line for a "healthy" season? 146 games? Convenient drawing the line at 5 seasons as well.


3 out of the last 7 isn't much better. It's been 4 years since he went a season without missing 5 or more games due to injury.

.513 this year puts him nicely between Jay Bruce and Ian Desmond, 31 homers in A ball in 2010, 31 in AA in 2011, and a .653 SLG when he was playing full time in AAA last year- I wouldn't bet against him at this point (unless you think he's already peaked)


This is what you call a small sample size. I think his peak is 25-30 home runs, average somewhere around .250s, 26-30% K rate, and a 5-7% walk rate.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #453: October 18, 2012, 10:07:43 AM »
Ike Davis is a good player.  I wouldn't even mind trading for him and putting him at 1B. 

Had a BABIP of .246 in 2012 that really dragged down his numbers.  Other than that, can take a walk and hits for power.  Strikes out a lot but so does LaRoche, Morse, and pretty much anyone else we'd put at 1B.  Davis is also a lefty and under team control for several years.

edit - fangraphs page - http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8433&position=1B

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #454: October 18, 2012, 10:09:23 AM »
I bet the Rays and some other smaller market teams would be interested in Moore. 

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #455: October 18, 2012, 10:16:17 AM »
This is what you call a small sample size. I think his peak is 25-30 home runs, average somewhere around .250s, 26-30% K rate, and a 5-7% walk rate.

his last three years are a small sample size?

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #456: October 18, 2012, 10:16:59 AM »
Ike Davis is a good player.  I wouldn't even mind trading for him and putting him at 1B. 

Had a BABIP of .246 in 2012 that really dragged down his numbers.  Other than that, can take a walk and hits for power.  Strikes out a lot but so does LaRoche, Morse, and pretty much anyone else we'd put at 1B.  Davis is also a lefty and under team control for several years.

edit - fangraphs page - http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8433&position=1B


Yea, if T-Mo walked like that, I'd be excited about him.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #457: October 18, 2012, 10:19:44 AM »
3 out of the last 7 isn't much better. It's been 4 years since he went a season without missing 5 or more games due to injury.

Which is still much better than what Rendon's been showing over his past two years... as well as his college years. Also, "serious" problems throwing to first is a hyperbole. I can't count how many times he's made amazing throws over to first. The only reason people remember Zimmerman's throwing issues are that they stand out because they are usually normal throws that are botched... and that doesn't happen as much as people thinks it does.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #458: October 18, 2012, 10:22:29 AM »
Which is still much better than what Rendon's been showing over his past two years... as well as his college years. Also, "serious" problems throwing to first is a hyperbole. I can't count how many times he's made amazing throws over to first. The only reason people remember Zimmerman's throwing issues are that they stand out because they are usually normal throws that are botched... and that doesn't happen as much as people thinks it does.

70% of his errors are throwing errors.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #459: October 18, 2012, 10:25:09 AM »
Which is still much better than what Rendon's been showing over his past two years... as well as his college years. Also, "serious" problems throwing to first is a hyperbole. I can't count how many times he's made amazing throws over to first. The only reason people remember Zimmerman's throwing issues are that they stand out because they are usually normal throws that are botched... and that doesn't happen as much as people thinks it does.

Zimm's throwing motion is a disaster and will continue to lead to routine plays being converted into errors.  His should may be messed up but a large part of his problem is in his head.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #460: October 18, 2012, 10:28:20 AM »
His should may be messed up but a large part of his problem is in his head.

if he was missing on the fast/athletic plays too, I'd call it the shoulder, but he seems to make those. Unless those are somehow less stressful on his shoulder, mental seems like the only explanation

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #461: October 18, 2012, 10:30:52 AM »
if he was missing on the fast/athletic plays too, I'd call it the shoulder, but he seems to make those. Unless those are somehow less stressful on his shoulder, mental seems like the only explanation

I have no idea how you followed that train of thought because reading it now that it's been quoted I have no idea what I was saying.  :lol:

But yes, his problems all seem to be psychological - he's afraid to let loose and make strong throws.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #462: October 18, 2012, 10:31:13 AM »
Since 2006, 8 players have logged at least 6000 innings at third base.

Ryan Zimmerman has 78 throwing errors in that time. The next closest is David Wright with 62. The average is 43.

Yes, his glove is fantastic. He has tremndous range. But the bottom line is that he has trouble throwing the ball.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #463: October 18, 2012, 10:35:14 AM »
Yes, his glove is fantastic. He has tremndous range. But the bottom line is that he has trouble throwing the ball.

Obviously, but since he has a minor flaw out of all of his tools, which rarely occurs, we should immediately move him to first and let some other injury prone guy - who hasn't even played a game in the majors - take over?

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #464: October 18, 2012, 10:37:18 AM »
Obviously, but since he has a minor flaw out of all of his tools, which rarely occurs, we should immediately move him to first and let some other injury prone guy - who hasn't even played a game in the majors - take over?

maybe if he's the best option we have at first and if it would correct that problem, and if the injury prone guy's bat will play in the majors.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #465: October 18, 2012, 10:41:31 AM »
Obviously, but since he has a minor flaw out of all of his tools, which rarely occurs, we should immediately move him to first and let some other injury prone guy - who hasn't even played a game in the majors - take over?

Rarely? Did you miss my stats? This crap happens all the time.

And Rendon's injury prone ness is due to his ankles. So do you think it will be worse for his ankles to play at third or at second? Hmmmmmm

Offline The Chief

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #466: October 18, 2012, 10:52:57 AM »
70% of his errors are throwing errors.

Talk about useless stats...

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #467: October 18, 2012, 11:00:35 AM »
It would be a disaster to start the season witih Zimmerman at first and Rendon at 3B. At best, like in the 10% world, that's a wash. Most likely its a loss of 2-3 wins. I don't see how you can project Zimmerman as more than a 4-win player at 1B based on his injury history, and I don't know how you project Rendon as more than a 2-win player. Before everyone goes crazy, remember than Zimmerman would lose 1.5 wins a season based on his positional adjustment at 1B as opposed to 3B.

There's no doubt about Tyler Moore being able to slug. When you carry a 250 ISO forward into the majors, that's never going to be a problem. Other teams are looking at him and seeing Mark Trumbo, and there's a lot more value in those kind of guys now that ISO has become scarcer and the offensive bar has been lowered a bit (average 2012 OPS 34 points lower than 2007). Look at how much more valuable LaRoche's output has become, just by being able to put up the same numbers in a different offensive environment.

It's hard to adjust your thinking, but most teams probably feel that a guy is a valuable commodity if he's under team control for 6 more years and probably has a floor of .250/.310/.480.

Personally, I'd like to see him get a shot in Toronto. He's a tailormade project for their "all ISO all the time" batting approach. I bet he'd hit 35 HRs there.


Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #468: October 18, 2012, 11:08:33 AM »
Rarely? Did you miss my stats? This crap happens all the time.

And Rendon's injury prone ness is due to his ankles. So do you think it will be worse for his ankles to play at third or at second? Hmmmmmm

I didn't say anything about Rendon playing second. I wouldn't mind moving him to first if we had too. My argument is about moving Zimmerman to first.

And when I say rarely happen, I mean out of all of his attempts at putouts and assists, he'll commit an error every now and then. That's still not enough to drastically move him out of his position. If the guy constantly threw balls away, couldn't react quick enough, and never made plays, then I would all be for moving him to first. But for seven years, I've been satisfied with his play and see no reason to move him to first because of a slight problem in throwing the ball.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #469: October 18, 2012, 11:12:56 AM »
Whenever I read a post that tries to attack Ryan Zimmerman I want to break things.

Ryan Zimmerman is arguably the best thing to ever happen to the Washington Nationals. He'll played 3B and bat #3 as long as he damn well pleases and we need to go to the ballpark everyday thankful to watch him play the game of baseball.

Zimmerman stayed with the Nats when we sucked. The Nats rewarded him with good contracts. If in the future as he grows older, the Nats better treat him perfectly. If he is ever shoved out of the door in a way that leaves a bad taste, I'll burn my Nationals gear and pray that Nationals Park by some act of God crumbles and instead of building a new one the team moves back to Montreal.

I was supporting Zimmerman when he sucked earlier this season and he paid us back big time. He always does. He's the Captain of this franchise.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #470: October 18, 2012, 11:28:02 AM »
Talk about useless stats...

It shows that Zimmerman struggles to throw the ball.

I didn't say anything about Rendon playing second. I wouldn't mind moving him to first if we had too. My argument is about moving Zimmerman to first.

And when I say rarely happen, I mean out of all of his attempts at putouts and assists, he'll commit an error every now and then. That's still not enough to drastically move him out of his position. If the guy constantly threw balls away, couldn't react quick enough, and never made plays, then I would all be for moving him to first. But for seven years, I've been satisfied with his play and see no reason to move him to first because of a slight problem in throwing the ball.

You want to put the guy who is barely 5'11" at first?

Whenever I read a post that tries to attack Ryan Zimmerman I want to break things.

Ryan Zimmerman is arguably the best thing to ever happen to the Washington Nationals. He'll played 3B and bat #3 as long as he damn well pleases and we need to go to the ballpark everyday thankful to watch him play the game of baseball.

Zimmerman stayed with the Nats when we sucked. The Nats rewarded him with good contracts. If in the future as he grows older, the Nats better treat him perfectly. If he is ever shoved out of the door in a way that leaves a bad taste, I'll burn my Nationals gear and pray that Nationals Park by some act of God crumbles and instead of building a new one the team moves back to Montreal.

I was supporting Zimmerman when he sucked earlier this season and he paid us back big time. He always does. He's the Captain of this franchise.

Zimmerman is the 4th best thing to happen to the Nationals

1. Bryce Harper
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. Jayson Werth's home run
4. Ryan Zimmerman

Could have had Braun .... :(

Zim didnt' stay with the Nats when we sucked. He didn't have a choice except retirement.

Offline The Chief

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #471: October 18, 2012, 11:28:58 AM »
It shows that Zimmerman struggles to throw the ball.

It doesn't show anything, that's common knowledge.  It was also irrelevant in the context of the post you were responding to...

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #472: October 18, 2012, 11:30:16 AM »
It doesn't show anything, that's common knowledge.  It was also irrelevant in the context of the post you were responding to...

k

Offline The Chief

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #473: October 18, 2012, 11:32:08 AM »
k

Pointing out that most of Zimmerman's errors are throwing errors in response to a post talking about Zimmerman's throwing errors.

"k" indeed :roll:

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #474: October 18, 2012, 11:35:13 AM »
You want to put the guy who is barely 5'11" at first?

Sure. Or at least let him try it out - as well as second - in the minors. That's what they are there for.

I also agree with the placement of Jayson Werth's homer. That was one of the best moments I have experienced in life.