Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 78060 times)

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Offline lastobjective

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #175: October 15, 2012, 10:45:54 AM »
His season was okay ... for a number 5. But it was really nothing special. He's by far the most replaceable pitcher we have.

What number 5 saves your ass in the playoffs, standing strong where the other starters faltered?  Detwiler has earned his spot in the rotation for his regular season and postseason performance. I think you can make a much better argument for Jackson being the most replaceable pitcher in the rotation.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #176: October 15, 2012, 10:50:03 AM »
Is number 5 this board's pc way of saying a starter sucks?

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #177: October 15, 2012, 11:00:14 AM »
I'm angry.  I want my pound of flesh.  And I'm taking it out on you.

Plenty to go around
I'd be surprised if any big moves are made. Seems like a stay-the-course offseason to me.

Largely, I agree with this. However, that seemed to be the case last season, so who knows.

What number 5 saves your ass in the playoffs, standing strong where the other starters faltered?  He's earned his spot in the rotation for his regular season and postseason performance. I think you can make a much better argument for Jackson being the most replaceable pitcher in the rotation.

Jackson and Detwiler are the same in this rotation. Just filler-get-me-to-the-6th starters. Oh and Derek Lowe saved the Sox in the 2004 ALCS. Wasn't even offered a decent contract that offseason.

John Lannan was an opening day starter and innings eater on this rotation until last year. No loyalty in this business. If you keep Detwiler in the rotation, you basically have to cut Lannan.

Is number 5 this board's pc way of saying a starter sucks?

A number 5 is a way of saying not a lot is expected of him. Number 5s are asked to get through the 5th inning giving up 4 runs or less. Lannan is a decent number 5. I'd say Detwiler was above average. I just feel that Detwiler's bullpen use was much more effective, considering that an average number 5 is easy to find. I'm also assuming we lose Mike Gonzalez and that Lanna would not be very useful in the pen as he's type of pitcher that needs to get in to a rhythm

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #178: October 15, 2012, 11:17:53 AM »
I agree with the notion that we won't do much this off-season... but I would really wish that we signed a Greinke or a Haren or traded for a Shields.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #179: October 15, 2012, 11:23:10 AM »
he had a 3.4 (3.58 as a starter) era- how is that only 'above average'?

Offline BigMeech

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #180: October 15, 2012, 11:23:26 AM »
Compare their 2011 seasons all you want, but Detwiler's 2012 season was better than anything Lannan could put together.  He seems that he's finally figuring it all out.  Why would you squash that and put him back in the bullpen?

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #181: October 15, 2012, 11:31:40 AM »
Slate, really?  Det in the pen?  Lannan number 5 over Det because Det is better in the pen?  JZimm was better in the pen.  Do you want to place him there as well?  Det has starter stuff and still has upside.  He would be the best number 5 in MLB with another frontline starter added in the offseason.  Grienke or Haren would complement this rotation and make the Nats the rotation to beat in the league.  I feel the best course of action is to sign one of Grienke/Haren and sign Madson to a one year pillow contract.  Madson provides a veteran arm in the bullpen that has playoff experience. Burnett could easily walk since he has more value on the open market then his option would give him.  Trade guys who have some value like Morse and Clippard for relief prospects as they seem to be the biggest need in the Nats system (that is until one of the "starters" that the Nats drafted don't develop at least three pitches).

Do what the Tigers did and strike while the iron is hot and go over the top.  The top pitchers will probably demand 80-100 million for four or five years.  It's those 7+ year deals that will always come with backlash, and we already have two of those in Werth and Zimm.  Spend for a front line guy and a reliever.  Look towards what it will take to retain someone like JZimm for three years.  If JZimm prices himself out of that, look to trade him next offseason and restock the system with higher end prospects, ala Oakland and Gio.

Offline NationalHeat

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #182: October 15, 2012, 11:41:43 AM »
I think, with the right tinkering, this team can win a championship without a major addition. Spending on Grienke could go to future extensions for Zimm, Strasburg, Desmond, etc.

Give me Madson and Pagan/Victorino.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #183: October 15, 2012, 11:44:12 AM »
I'd be surprised if any big moves are made. Seems like a stay-the-course offseason to me.

I have been saying this since early August.

Re-sign ALR

Let Jackson walk and find a # 5. Is Lannan or Duke the one?

Replace Gonzales ( non tender candidate) , Burnett (may opt for FA) Gorzelanny ( too expensive but keep him if he wants to stay) for lefty RP with Duke and possibly one other.

Add Garcia , Cole Kimball and HRod ( not my choice but the FO has invested too much in him to let him walk) for Righties.

I find the speculation about trading Morse for a top prospect as a losing proposition for us. How can you give up 30 HR's , 100 RBI's and close to .300 BA? Look how everyone pissed and moaned about Willingham.I recognize his defensive limitations. He is signed through 2013 and we can see if Goodwin , Moore , Brown or Hood are ready for 2014.

The "goon squad "is Tracy , Lombo . Bernie and Moore ( I am not sure what detrimental affect 200 PA's will have on him) if we don't have an injury to one of our OFs' or ALR

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #184: October 15, 2012, 11:58:01 AM »
I think, with the right tinkering, this team can win a championship without a major addition. Spending on Grienke could go to future extensions for Zimm, Strasburg, Desmond, etc.

Give me Madson and Pagan/Victorino.


I forgot about Pagan - he was worth about 5 wins last year and is still only 31. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2918&position=OF

What about Chris Young from the D'backs?  He's a speed/power guy with lots of strikeouts.  A lot like BJ Upton.  Also plays good d.  We'd have to trade for him, unlike Upton.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/youngs-time-in-arizona-likely-coming-to-an-end/


Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #185: October 15, 2012, 11:58:50 AM »
No more high K hitters, they are streaky and that killed up in the playoffs

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #186: October 15, 2012, 12:04:57 PM »
he had a 3.4 (3.58 as a starter) era- how is that only 'above average'?
Compare their 2011 seasons all you want, but Detwiler's 2012 season was better than anything Lannan could put together.  He seems that he's finally figuring it all out.  Why would you squash that and put him back in the bullpen?

ERA is a poor judge of a pitcher's ability. Lannan posted a 3.70 last year. His FIP was slightly above 4. And when you compare Lannan's 2011 with Detwiler in 2012, they are remarkably similar:
Lannan: 10-13, 184 innings, 3.70 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 5.17 K/9, 3.70 BB/9, 54.1% GB, .73 HR/9
Detwiler: 10-8, 164 innings, 3.40 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 5.75 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, 50.8% GB, .82 HR/9

Detwiler was better, but not by a whole lot. Frankly, I think the gain of having a better bullpen offsets it. Especially since I think Lannan will be improved in 2013. He showed improvement in limited starting time this season. I also think Detwiler over-achieved this season. His BABIP against was .263, which was the 10th best in baseball. I don't see him sustaining that long term, especially as the NL gets more scouting on him and realizes he's basically a one pitch pitcher.

Slate, really?  Det in the pen?  Lannan number 5 over Det because Det is better in the pen?  JZimm was better in the pen.  Do you want to place him there as well?  Det has starter stuff and still has upside.  He would be the best number 5 in MLB with another frontline starter added in the offseason.  Grienke or Haren would complement this rotation and make the Nats the rotation to beat in the league.  I feel the best course of action is to sign one of Grienke/Haren and sign Madson to a one year pillow contract.  Madson provides a veteran arm in the bullpen that has playoff experience. Burnett could easily walk since he has more value on the open market then his option would give him.  Trade guys who have some value like Morse and Clippard for relief prospects as they seem to be the biggest need in the Nats system (that is until one of the "starters" that the Nats drafted don't develop at least three pitches).

Do what the Tigers did and strike while the iron is hot and go over the top.  The top pitchers will probably demand 80-100 million for four or five years.  It's those 7+ year deals that will always come with backlash, and we already have two of those in Werth and Zimm.  Spend for a front line guy and a reliever.  Look towards what it will take to retain someone like JZimm for three years.  If JZimm prices himself out of that, look to trade him next offseason and restock the system with higher end prospects, ala Oakland and Gio.

I posted what I think it would take to get Price. It's pretty hypothetical, but it's at least enough to get the Rays to listen instead of laugh and hang up.

JZ has 1 inning in relief in which he was clearly amped.  He's also one of the better starters in the league, so I expect him to look really good. And I wouldn't be against signing Greinke and converting JZ to a closer role if we needed a closer.

I seriously doubt Madson would come here, even if he's looking for a one year, proof of worth deal. Why would he? His only chance of closing is if Storen gets hurt. Meanwhile, there are several teams that will be looking for a closer this season and be willing to spend. God knows the Angels need bullpen help. White Sox may be looking for a closer for the next two or three years until Addison Reed is ready. And the Tigers .... well, I seriously doubt they bring back Valverde. Those are three teams that are not only competitive, but will offer big money AND give him the closer role. One of these things the Nats won't do .... :stir:

The Tigers have been in their peak for a year now. The Nationals are just entering theirs. Oh and the Tigers went and gave Fielder exactly the kind of deal you don't want the Nationals to give out.

There is no way Grienke sings for less than 100 million dollars. Cole Hamels got a 7/150+ extension. It will take that to get Grienke. The Angels have an option on Haren. We'll see if they decline it, but I think he signs for Buehrle type money. I'd much rather give that money to JZ. Certainly don't want to trade him in his prime when we're competing. Which we will be. Teams that are in the hunt for the World Series don't trade away their front line starters.


Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #187: October 15, 2012, 12:16:15 PM »
I have been saying this since early August.

Re-sign ALR  -  Not if you intend to keep Morse

Let Jackson walk and find a # 5. Is Lannan or Duke the one?  If Lannan and/or Duke are my choices, I'll take Edwin back.

Replace Gonzales ( non tender candidate) , Burnett (may opt for FA) Gorzelanny ( too expensive but keep him if he wants to stay) for lefty RP with Duke and possibly one other.  How about Lannan?  Lannan can be a spot starter too?

Add Garcia , Cole Kimball and HRod ( not my choice but the FO has invested too much in him to let him walk) for Righties.  I don't ever want to see HRod again.  Give him back to Oakland and take two shares of the Golden Gate Bridge in return.

I find the speculation about trading Morse for a top prospect as a losing proposition for us. How can you give up 30 HR's , 100 RBI's and close to .300 BA? Look how everyone pissed and moaned about Willingham.I recognize his defensive limitations. He is signed through 2013 and we can see if Goodwin , Moore , Brown or Hood are ready for 2014.  I'd like to keep Morse over LaRoche but wouldn't be disappointed if we kept LaRoche - but I don't think you can keep them both.  Moore needs a shot in LF.
 
The "goon squad "is Tracy , Lombo . Bernie and Moore ( I am not sure what detrimental affect 200 PA's will have on him) if we don't have an injury to one of our OFs' or ALR  Don't really care about Tracy but I think Lombo and Bernie are good fill-ins for injuries and Moore needs to be starting.  I'd be down with re-signing Tracy; he's about a decent a bench player as you can ask for.

My two cents.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #188: October 15, 2012, 12:16:44 PM »
I bet there will be a starter left hanging in January/February.  It might be Jackson again.  Might be Lohse or Marcum.  One of those guys can be had on another 1 year deal.  If, for whatever reason, that doesn't happen, just bring Lannan back as the #5.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #189: October 15, 2012, 12:42:42 PM »
I don't like the idea of downgrading our rotation by essentially replacing Jackson with a Lannan/Duke/Garcia. Our rotation is what made us so awesome and the likelyhood of us being that good again are slim to none. To counteract that I really want to get a Haren or Shields type. And doing that shouldn't be any reason not to extend JZimm as well.

We should hopefully be getting a new lucrative TV deal soon, not to mention the extra money from improved attendance. Money SHOULDN'T be an issue. I'm nervous that it will be however and that we'll mostly be quiet this offseason.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #190: October 15, 2012, 12:49:27 PM »
My two cents.

Tracy is already re-sgned.

I do not know why you can't have both Morse and ALR.

I don't want Jackson. He was a losing pitcher on a championship team. Yeah, he got his share of ND on great games pitched but did he also benfit from games that he wasn't great and the offense carried him?

I don't thnk we have a vote on HRod.

Lannan or Duke are possibilities for the # 5 not limited to.

Lannan cannot be a relief pitcher. Takes too long to warm up.

I mentioned the need for Moore to start.

I am not sure we are different in our wants or thoughts except for Morse / ALR.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #191: October 15, 2012, 01:04:21 PM »
Garcia will not hold up as a starter.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #192: October 15, 2012, 01:13:13 PM »
I am not sure we are different in our wants or thoughts except for Morse / ALR.

That and Jackson.  I'm o.k. with Jackson.  He's improving with time and he's a converted OFer - I just happen to think he'll "get it" at some point and I'd like to benefit from that.  Plus, there's nothing wrong with him as a #5 which converts to long reliver in the playoffs - he does eat innings.

I don't think you can keep LaRoche and Morse because Morse is a mess in LF.  He plays 1B more than competently and it makes no sense to have a bat like Morse's on the bench (then again, it really doesn't make sense to have a bat like Moore's on the bench either).  I think you can let LaRoche walk and be no worse for the wear - or, if you want LaRoche then you can use Morse as a trade chip.  I just happen to like Morse's bat better than LaRoche's; albeit not by much.  Either way, Moore needs to be in LF and playing.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #193: October 15, 2012, 01:18:27 PM »
Jackson as a five would be fine, but he's going to be looking for multiple years with decent money, and I think some team will be willing to do it- that's not something you give a number five

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #194: October 15, 2012, 01:23:36 PM »
ERA is a poor judge of a pitcher's ability. Lannan posted a 3.70 last year. His FIP was slightly above 4. And when you compare Lannan's 2011 with Detwiler in 2012, they are remarkably similar:
Lannan: 10-13, 184 innings, 3.70 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 5.17 K/9, 3.70 BB/9, 54.1% GB, .73 HR/9
Detwiler: 10-8, 164 innings, 3.40 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 5.75 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, 50.8% GB, .82 HR/9

Detwiler was better, but not by a whole lot. Frankly, I think the gain of having a better bullpen offsets it. Especially since I think Lannan will be improved in 2013. He showed improvement in limited starting time this season. I also think Detwiler over-achieved this season. His BABIP against was .263, which was the 10th best in baseball. I don't see him sustaining that long term, especially as the NL gets more scouting on him and realizes he's basically a one pitch pitcher.

I posted what I think it would take to get Price. It's pretty hypothetical, but it's at least enough to get the Rays to listen instead of laugh and hang up.

JZ has 1 inning in relief in which he was clearly amped.  He's also one of the better starters in the league, so I expect him to look really good. And I wouldn't be against signing Greinke and converting JZ to a closer role if we needed a closer.

I seriously doubt Madson would come here, even if he's looking for a one year, proof of worth deal. Why would he? His only chance of closing is if Storen gets hurt. Meanwhile, there are several teams that will be looking for a closer this season and be willing to spend. God knows the Angels need bullpen help. White Sox may be looking for a closer for the next two or three years until Addison Reed is ready. And the Tigers .... well, I seriously doubt they bring back Valverde. Those are three teams that are not only competitive, but will offer big money AND give him the closer role. One of these things the Nats won't do .... :stir:

The Tigers have been in their peak for a year now. The Nationals are just entering theirs. Oh and the Tigers went and gave Fielder exactly the kind of deal you don't want the Nationals to give out.

There is no way Grienke sings for less than 100 million dollars. Cole Hamels got a 7/150+ extension. It will take that to get Grienke. The Angels have an option on Haren. We'll see if they decline it, but I think he signs for Buehrle type money. I'd much rather give that money to JZ. Certainly don't want to trade him in his prime when we're competing. Which we will be. Teams that are in the hunt for the World Series don't trade away their front line starters.

First off, Det is not a one pitch pitcher.  He throws tons of fastballs, but he controls his fastball and sinker all over the zone.  He also has a nice changeup and the last few outings, his curveball showed promise of being a good pitch.  All ground ball pitchers have high FIP numbers as well.  It is inherent because they don't strike out a ton of guys, but put the ball in play and let the defense do the work.  Yes, there is no way to say that a good GB pitcher can sustain a very low BABIP, mostly because it does show good luck on the pitchers part that those ground balls are going right at infielders and results in outs.  This could change to becoming base hits through gaps.  Ross though as he emerges as a GB pitcher can learn how to place his sinkers (he is already starting to do this) in certain spots in the zone to direct a pitch towards a defender, which is how the defensive shift can work so well.  Not saying he is a #1 here, nor am I debating that ERA is a flukey stat, but you are also putting a bit too much faith into the advanced SABR stats to identify the worth of a pitcher.  Guys like Lannan and Det will be SABR nightmares, Lannan even more so.  What Ross has is that pure scouts love that he is a lefty who can throw a 96 mph sinker.  This is something you just can't teach, and Det is harnessing the sinker to his advantage by learning to make it a high precision control pitch.  If he can do that, he becomes an elite GB pitcher in the game.

I wasn't trying to say that the Nats should give up a 9 year contract to a guy like the Tigers did with Prince, but they did spend because they want to win.  If you can lure a guy like Grienke to take a four or five year deal with more AAV, then you should do it.  I also disagree that he will get 7/150 or even 6/120.  Grienke has a CY, but he also has swings from year to year that don't put him in a class with guys like Hamels or Lincecum (this year non-withstanding).  My guess is that his new agent will target this type of deal, but I don't see any team willing to fork over that kind of money for him.  5/100 or 4/85 would be more than enough to get it done I think, but I'm not a GM or an agent.  I think you target him anyway and try and make it worth his while to come here as he would be a very nice piece to this rotation, and arguably would be the fourth best pitcher on the team.

As for JZimm, I know you would never intend to put JZimm in the pen.  I was trying to stretch out an example of why not to put Det back in the pen.  His use as a starter has far greater value than as a one or two inning guy in the pen as he isn't a high leverage reliever like a set-up guy or closer.  I know that you would want to keep JZimm here for a long time, but as others have said, after the Gio deal and after calling up Harper, Lombo, and Moore, the farm system is a little light.  In order to build a true "dynasty" that I think many want, you need to sometimes let a really good guy go in order to refill parts of the system.  Yes, this team has the ability to contend for years, but looking at the facts, you will need lots of free cash to sign guys like Strasburg and/or Harper long term.  Those will be potential 30 Mil a season contracts, add in guys like Zimm and Werth for the last years of their respective contracts, try to hold onto guys like Desmond and now you end up with a payroll that escalates quickly.  JZimm at his current going rate is going to be looking like an 18-20 mil a year guy when you start adjusting for inflation as well.  As much of a blow as it would be, he could be traded for prospects to restock the system and by 2014 or so, you may have the ability to bring up Meyer as a starter.  Purke and Solis if they are healthy and develop could be up there as well (moreso with Solis).

Just saying there are lots of ways to look at this in the future, and as much as I think we all want to sign up all the young guys, it may make more sense to let one of these guys go in order to be productive for many many years.

Offline NationalHeat

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #195: October 15, 2012, 01:42:59 PM »
First off, Det is not a one pitch pitcher.  He throws tons of fastballs, but he controls his fastball and sinker all over the zone.  He also has a nice changeup and the last few outings, his curveball showed promise of being a good pitch.  All ground ball pitchers have high FIP numbers as well.  It is inherent because they don't strike out a ton of guys, but put the ball in play and let the defense do the work.  Yes, there is no way to say that a good GB pitcher can sustain a very low BABIP, mostly because it does show good luck on the pitchers part that those ground balls are going right at infielders and results in outs.  This could change to becoming base hits through gaps.  Ross though as he emerges as a GB pitcher can learn how to place his sinkers (he is already starting to do this) in certain spots in the zone to direct a pitch towards a defender, which is how the defensive shift can work so well.  Not saying he is a #1 here, nor am I debating that ERA is a flukey stat, but you are also putting a bit too much faith into the advanced SABR stats to identify the worth of a pitcher.  Guys like Lannan and Det will be SABR nightmares, Lannan even more so.  What Ross has is that pure scouts love that he is a lefty who can throw a 96 mph sinker.  This is something you just can't teach, and Det is harnessing the sinker to his advantage by learning to make it a high precision control pitch.  If he can do that, he becomes an elite GB pitcher in the game.

I wasn't trying to say that the Nats should give up a 9 year contract to a guy like the Tigers did with Prince, but they did spend because they want to win.  If you can lure a guy like Grienke to take a four or five year deal with more AAV, then you should do it.  I also disagree that he will get 7/150 or even 6/120.  Grienke has a CY, but he also has swings from year to year that don't put him in a class with guys like Hamels or Lincecum (this year non-withstanding).  My guess is that his new agent will target this type of deal, but I don't see any team willing to fork over that kind of money for him.  5/100 or 4/85 would be more than enough to get it done I think, but I'm not a GM or an agent.  I think you target him anyway and try and make it worth his while to come here as he would be a very nice piece to this rotation, and arguably would be the fourth best pitcher on the team.

As for JZimm, I know you would never intend to put JZimm in the pen.  I was trying to stretch out an example of why not to put Det back in the pen.  His use as a starter has far greater value than as a one or two inning guy in the pen as he isn't a high leverage reliever like a set-up guy or closer.  I know that you would want to keep JZimm here for a long time, but as others have said, after the Gio deal and after calling up Harper, Lombo, and Moore, the farm system is a little light.  In order to build a true "dynasty" that I think many want, you need to sometimes let a really good guy go in order to refill parts of the system.  Yes, this team has the ability to contend for years, but looking at the facts, you will need lots of free cash to sign guys like Strasburg and/or Harper long term.  Those will be potential 30 Mil a season contracts, add in guys like Zimm and Werth for the last years of their respective contracts, try to hold onto guys like Desmond and now you end up with a payroll that escalates quickly.  JZimm at his current going rate is going to be looking like an 18-20 mil a year guy when you start adjusting for inflation as well.  As much of a blow as it would be, he could be traded for prospects to restock the system and by 2014 or so, you may have the ability to bring up Meyer as a starter.  Purke and Solis if they are healthy and develop could be up there as well (moreso with Solis).

Just saying there are lots of ways to look at this in the future, and as much as I think we all want to sign up all the young guys, it may make more sense to let one of these guys go in order to be productive for many many years.

More reason to not go and psned on Grienke.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #196: October 15, 2012, 01:48:49 PM »
First off, Det is not a one pitch pitcher.  He throws tons of fastballs, but he controls his fastball and sinker all over the zone.  He also has a nice changeup and the last few outings, his curveball showed promise of being a good pitch.  All ground ball pitchers have high FIP numbers as well.  It is inherent because they don't strike out a ton of guys, but put the ball in play and let the defense do the work.  Yes, there is no way to say that a good GB pitcher can sustain a very low BABIP, mostly because it does show good luck on the pitchers part that those ground balls are going right at infielders and results in outs.  This could change to becoming base hits through gaps.  Ross though as he emerges as a GB pitcher can learn how to place his sinkers (he is already starting to do this) in certain spots in the zone to direct a pitch towards a defender, which is how the defensive shift can work so well.  Not saying he is a #1 here, nor am I debating that ERA is a flukey stat, but you are also putting a bit too much faith into the advanced SABR stats to identify the worth of a pitcher.  Guys like Lannan and Det will be SABR nightmares, Lannan even more so.  What Ross has is that pure scouts love that he is a lefty who can throw a 96 mph sinker.  This is something you just can't teach, and Det is harnessing the sinker to his advantage by learning to make it a high precision control pitch.  If he can do that, he becomes an elite GB pitcher in the game.

I wasn't trying to say that the Nats should give up a 9 year contract to a guy like the Tigers did with Prince, but they did spend because they want to win.  If you can lure a guy like Grienke to take a four or five year deal with more AAV, then you should do it.  I also disagree that he will get 7/150 or even 6/120.  Grienke has a CY, but he also has swings from year to year that don't put him in a class with guys like Hamels or Lincecum (this year non-withstanding).  My guess is that his new agent will target this type of deal, but I don't see any team willing to fork over that kind of money for him.  5/100 or 4/85 would be more than enough to get it done I think, but I'm not a GM or an agent.  I think you target him anyway and try and make it worth his while to come here as he would be a very nice piece to this rotation, and arguably would be the fourth best pitcher on the team.

As for JZimm, I know you would never intend to put JZimm in the pen.  I was trying to stretch out an example of why not to put Det back in the pen.  His use as a starter has far greater value than as a one or two inning guy in the pen as he isn't a high leverage reliever like a set-up guy or closer.  I know that you would want to keep JZimm here for a long time, but as others have said, after the Gio deal and after calling up Harper, Lombo, and Moore, the farm system is a little light.  In order to build a true "dynasty" that I think many want, you need to sometimes let a really good guy go in order to refill parts of the system.  Yes, this team has the ability to contend for years, but looking at the facts, you will need lots of free cash to sign guys like Strasburg and/or Harper long term.  Those will be potential 30 Mil a season contracts, add in guys like Zimm and Werth for the last years of their respective contracts, try to hold onto guys like Desmond and now you end up with a payroll that escalates quickly.  JZimm at his current going rate is going to be looking like an 18-20 mil a year guy when you start adjusting for inflation as well.  As much of a blow as it would be, he could be traded for prospects to restock the system and by 2014 or so, you may have the ability to bring up Meyer as a starter.  Purke and Solis if they are healthy and develop could be up there as well (moreso with Solis).

Just saying there are lots of ways to look at this in the future, and as much as I think we all want to sign up all the young guys, it may make more sense to let one of these guys go in order to be productive for many many years.

It's HIGHLY unlikely that a GB pitcher sustains a low BABIP. Detwiler has the lowest amongst any starter in baseball with a 50% or more ground ball percentage. It's simply too hard. His fastball and his sinker are basically the same pitch. He has minimal control over his curveball and he rarely throws a change up. Opposing hitters will figure it out and his numbers will increase. Unless he gets a lot better at controling his curve and change, this will be the high water mark for Detwiler's career. He doesn't sit at 96 with his fastball. That's it's peak. He averages around 92 or 93. And his numbers are pretty easy to duplicate.

Grienke has one "bad" year in the last five. And that bad year was actually pretty decent. The other  years he was great, including winning a Cy Young. Since 2008, he's been one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball. Only Verlander  doesn't have 7/150 or greater type deal. And his contract was signed in 2010, the year before he become a future HoFer. Grienke should get a monster deal because he's that good. He's at the same level as CC, Cliff Lee, and Felix Hernandez. He turns 29 this year and he is in his prime. He'll easily perform up to what he's accomplished in his career thus far. The Hamels extension would be the bare minimum.

Offline raleighnat

  • Posts: 158
Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #197: October 15, 2012, 04:09:25 PM »
My 2 cents:

1)  The team won 98 games - best in baseball.  Aside from minor tweaks, keep all the major components together.
2)  Don't trade Morse - Keep Harper in CF for another year
3)  Extend LaRoche (2 year max, if not, its Moore's turn)
4)  Don't sell the farm
5)  Don't sign free agents that will prevent paying the young core as they become more expensive over time
6)  If the Lerners are willing (I hope they are), replace Jackson with a front line, free agent starter.  If this conflicts with #5, then resign Jackson (or preferably a more consistent, but similarly priced alternative)
7)  Have another great draft to keep the pipeline full
8)  Get Davey back, begin planning for his successor

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 2676
Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #198: October 15, 2012, 04:11:24 PM »
It's HIGHLY unlikely that a GB pitcher sustains a low BABIP. Detwiler has the lowest amongst any starter in baseball with a 50% or more ground ball percentage. It's simply too hard. His fastball and his sinker are basically the same pitch. He has minimal control over his curveball and he rarely throws a change up. Opposing hitters will figure it out and his numbers will increase. Unless he gets a lot better at controling his curve and change, this will be the high water mark for Detwiler's career. He doesn't sit at 96 with his fastball. That's it's peak. He averages around 92 or 93. And his numbers are pretty easy to duplicate.

Grienke has one "bad" year in the last five. And that bad year was actually pretty decent. The other  years he was great, including winning a Cy Young. Since 2008, he's been one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball. Only Verlander  doesn't have 7/150 or greater type deal. And his contract was signed in 2010, the year before he become a future HoFer. Grienke should get a monster deal because he's that good. He's at the same level as CC, Cliff Lee, and Felix Hernandez. He turns 29 this year and he is in his prime. He'll easily perform up to what he's accomplished in his career thus far. The Hamels extension would be the bare minimum.

Understood.  I don't know if I trust Det in the pen though if he can't control that curve.  He needs KO stuff and really doesn't have it.  I guess maybe as a long relief guy and obviously as you stated before he gains the added velocity.  If he wants to be an effective starter or a quality relief guy, he has to develop the change and figure out the curve.  He had an excellent season and he'd be fine in my eyes as a number 5 and has the potential to be greater.

On Grienke, I'm not convinced he gets Hamels money due to him being a righty but I understand that it takes mega bucks to get him.  Still, I'm a LAC guy so I'd rather them pony up the money to have him and the Nats go into next season with the best rotation, even better than the Rays.  If Gio can settle down and the kid gloves are off with Stras, there is no reason to think that with Grienke in the rotation the first four starters can't go 6 or 7 innings every time out. 

Offline NationalHeat

  • Posts: 482
Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #199: October 15, 2012, 04:13:44 PM »
My 2 cents:

1)  The team won 98 games - best in baseball.  Aside from minor tweaks, keep all the major components together.
2)  Don't trade Morse - Keep Harper in CF for another year
3)  Extend LaRoche (2 year max, if not, its Moore's turn)
4)  Don't sell the farm
5)  Don't sign free agents that will prevent paying the young core as they become more expensive over time
6)  If the Lerners are willing (I hope they are), replace Jackson with a front line, free agent starter.  If this conflicts with #5, then resign Jackson (or preferably a more consistent, but similarly priced alternative)
7)  Have another great draft to keep the pipeline full
8)  Get Davey back, begin planning for his successor

5 and 6 probably contradict. Choose between Zimm or Grienke.