Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 74336 times)

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Offline Displaced Bucco

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #75: October 13, 2012, 06:49:44 PM »
Here's my 2 cents:

1B – Resign LaRoche.  I don’t think it would take a king’s ransom.

2B – I’d stick with Danny for now.  It’s only really his second full season.  Let’s see how he learns from this season before we pull the plug.  We do have options, but I’m ok with a good fielding, light hitting 2B if the SS hits as well as Desmond.

SS – We’re set.  Desi’s growth is part of the reason I think we can give Espi more time.  Even if Desi gets hurt, we’re in decent shape with solid back ups in the middle infield

3B – Again, we’re set.  Although it wouldn’t surprise me if Zim has surgery on his shoulder this offseason.

OF – Need an upgrade in lf.  Morse is plodding at best.  If we can’t keep Adam move him to first.  Mindfacting that he just isn’t a clutch hitter, as his career RISP is near .300, but it just seems like his big hits are when the game is already on ice or we’re way behind.  I don’t think his bat makes up for his awful defense.  Bryce is doing ok in center, but I’d go for a good CF and more Bryce to a corner.  Werth is good to go in my book.

C – Lots of “middling” depth here.  I’d stick with Suzuki as the starter, but not sure about backup.  His really seems to work well with the pitchers and his bat isn’t a complete liability.  Ramos could be the backup, if he can ever learn how to catch a ball thrown from the outfield.  Everybody else is trade bait.

Starting Pitching – Gio and Straus 1 and 2, don’t know which is which.  JZimm 3…and what a nice #3 starter.  Det #4.  I think that’s one of the strongest 1 – 4 in baseball.  Jackson isn’t bad for a #5 really and if that’s our 1-4, you can leave him out of the playoff rotation if you get there.  I guess I’d be ok if you could keep him for a reasonable price, but Lannan could be #5 as well.

Bullpen – Our biggest weakness.  We need some truly reliable relievers.  Maybe Drew and Clip grow up some as a result of this season and playoffs, but maybe they don’t.  We were getting by all season by rolling the dice, but you could see the playoff meltdown coming down the stretch.

Bench – Pretty solid.

So I keep Espi and sign Adam.  Keep Jackson if he’s cheap, otherwise he walks (maybe with a qualified offer) and go with Lannan.  I see what we can get for Morse, Flores, and a couple of the guys in the pen.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #76: October 13, 2012, 06:56:37 PM »
Pretty much agree with you.  I'd keep Espinosa on a fairly short leash, and I want a true CF.

Two points of major disagreement: 1. Suzuki should back up Ramos - Ramos is a far better game-caller and hits a bit better, and 2. overall, Jackson seems like a good #5, but the way he fell apart down the stretch and in the playoffs really turns me off.  If "Bad Edwin" is so thoroughly bad, then we need another #5 who can be a bit more serviceable.

Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #77: October 13, 2012, 06:57:14 PM »
Trade for Cole Hammels or Cliff Lee. 

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #78: October 13, 2012, 07:01:11 PM »
And the D-Backs want to trade away Upton, not Parra.
bunch of stuff about not spending money to me sounds like typical SSS/LANC blind following......

Just kidding
 


I present to you awesome trade speculation from some unreliable source #1 for the 2012 Hot Stove Season! http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/diamondbacks-weighing-trade-of-kubel-or-parra.html

I'd actually rather have Upton anyway.  On maybe a four year deal I think he nets us just enough insurance until one of the youngins down on the farm can take over full time.  My bet is on Goodwin by 2015 (give him a full year at AA next year and a full year at AAA in 2014 and he should be ready) and when that happens, maybe you consider trading Upton.  I am a believer that a change of scenery will do him well and I know he isn't a lead off guy and strikes out a lot, but some of that has to come from the inefficient Rays lineup.  Some of his biggest potential bad tendencies can be mirrored over by placing him in a better lineup.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #79: October 13, 2012, 07:11:05 PM »
I present to you awesome trade speculation from some unreliable source #1 for the 2012 Hot Stove Season! http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/diamondbacks-weighing-trade-of-kubel-or-parra.html

I'd actually rather have Upton anyway.  On maybe a four year deal I think he nets us just enough insurance until one of the youngins down on the farm can take over full time.  My bet is on Goodwin by 2015 (give him a full year at AA next year and a full year at AAA in 2014 and he should be ready) and when that happens, maybe you consider trading Upton.  I am a believer that a change of scenery will do him well and I know he isn't a lead off guy and strikes out a lot, but some of that has to come from the inefficient Rays lineup.  Some of his biggest potential bad tendencies can be mirrored over by placing him in a better lineup.


They just signed Kubel, so they won't be trading him. Parra ... maybe, but I'm betting they're more likely to move Young or Upton.

It will take a lot to get Upton. Like Rendon + others to get him.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #80: October 13, 2012, 07:15:07 PM »
They just signed Kubel, so they won't be trading him. Parra ... maybe, but I'm betting they're more likely to move Young or Upton.

It will take a lot to get Upton. Like Rendon + others to get him.

I'd give up Rendon and Hood and others to get Upton. Only problem is that it leaves us with not much competition at 2B.

I'd also take Kate Upton.

Offline imref

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #81: October 13, 2012, 07:19:22 PM »
i think we need SP depth, if one of our big 3 go down, who do we turn to?  Maya?  It's not likely we get 200 innings out of everyone next year.  Maybe we can keep Duke?  But otherwise we really need a SP who can fill in if someone has issues.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #82: October 13, 2012, 07:20:16 PM »
Can someone explain to me what the deal is with trades and contracts? Is it like basketball with a salary cap?

As much as a love Morse id like to see a bit more speed in the outfield. Other than that I dont see why we should make drastic changes. We had the best regular season record which could have been 100+ wins if we had more luck.

I may be talking complete crap so excuse my rookie opinions!

NickNats - you are probably familiar with the American professional team sports practice of swapping players rather the sort of signings and transfers common in soccer / football.  Unlike basketball, there is no hard cap or budget limit.  What baseball does is sets a level of spending above which you will be taxed by the league and the money redistributed to other teams.  It is somewhere around $175 - $180 MM, I think.  The tax ranges up to 40% of the exceedance of the "luxury tax threshold," as it is commonly called.  The Yankees regularly exceed that threshold, every year for at least the past decade, by tens of millions of dollars, while Philadelphia, Boston, Detroit, and the Los Angeles Angels have exceeded the threshold for 1 or more times, often by a few million.  The luxury tax is not an issue for the Nats because they have regularly been one of the lowest budget teams.

The pay rules work so that players typically get paid less early in their career, so players like Desmond, Mattheus, and Espinosa have been making around $400,000.  A guy like Harper or Strasburg have higher initial contracts as part of their agreeing to come to the team, but even those are small change compared to their value.   These young players are not allowed to become free agents and sell themselves to the highest bidders until they have been in the majors 6 years and their contracts lapse, or the team refuses to re-sign a player.

We talk a lot about Adam LaRoche because the Nats signed him in before 2011 for two years and an mutual option for 2013.  Both the team and LaRoche would need to agree that the 2013 deal is reasonable for him not to become a free agent, which is unlikely.  That is why we talk about the need for a lefty hitter, preferably a first baseman or left fielder, if we cannot reach agreement with LaRoche. 

In contrast to LaRoche, Michael Morse is under contract for next year.  If LaRoche signs with another team, we could move Morse to first because he played much better defensively last year at first than he did this year in left field.  We would then look to backfill in left with a major star like Josh Hamilton, who would command a large contract, or could go with Bernadina and Moore "platooning" (splitting playing time depending mostly on whether the opposing starting pitcher throw right handed or lefty), or some in between option.

If LaRoche returns, we could just play Morse in left, or we could look to swap his contract to another team for players, either in the majors or in the minor leagues, who better fit our organization. You can only trade players under contract or early enough in their experience to not have hit 6 years in the majors. 

Last year, we acquired Gio Gonzalez in a trade for four players who had little or no major league experience.  Gio had less than 6 years experience but was near enough to that limit that he was likely either to leave his old team or to cost them a lot of money, while the four players we sent would be cheap for many years.  That is a common trade, sometimes called a "salary dump," which is not unlike a smaller football club agreeing to a transfer to a big club, except instead of getting money back, the team dumping the salary got players they could develop, control for multiple years, and pay them little money.  Kurt Suzuki was also picked up on a salary dump because he is due over $7MM in 2013 (counting a temination fee or "buyout" of 2014).  In a quirk, one of the players we sent to Gio's old team, Derek Norris, is the guy who replaced Suzuki (suzuki and Gio played for Oakland).

Another common trade motivation is to trade surplus to fill gaps.  The surplus is referred to as trade chits or tradeable surplus.  Danny Espinosa is a trade chit because we have Lombardozzi and two minor leaguers who could  fill in for him eventually in Anthony Rendon and Jeff Kobernus (there are even more potential replacements we control).  Espinosa, despite striking out a lot, is an excellent defensive player with pretty good power for his position and is a good base runner, so teams that value that might find him attractive.  Another player viewed as a trade chit is Tyler Clippard, who has shown he can close. Some teams value that highly.  For example, Boston to traded Oaklan, Gio's and Suzuki's old team, a player named Josh Reddick, who was not a regular with Boston (seen as surplus) but who became an All Star when he played for Oakland this year.

Just mentioning all these Oakland moves probably gives you a sense that they are a low budget team that made a number of good moves this year. You are right. That's how they made the playoffs. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #83: October 13, 2012, 07:23:33 PM »
I'd give up Rendon and Hood and others to get Upton. Only problem is that it leaves us with not much competition at 2B.

I'd also take Kate Upton.

Don't let Vega hear you say that. It'll probably make him sick


Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #84: October 13, 2012, 07:29:37 PM »
They just signed Kubel, so they won't be trading him. Parra ... maybe, but I'm betting they're more likely to move Young or Upton.

It will take a lot to get Upton. Like Rendon + others to get him.

Not Justin.  I'm actually more for B.J. Upton over Parra, but I would love Justin over either but he will come WAY too expensive in trade commodities.  B.J. Upton only costs money.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #85: October 13, 2012, 07:37:36 PM »
Can someone explain to me what the deal is with trades and contracts? Is it like basketball with a salary cap?

As much as a love Morse id like to see a bit more speed in the outfield. Other than that I dont see why we should make drastic changes. We had the best regular season record which could have been 100+ wins if we had more luck.

I may be talking complete crap so excuse my rookie opinions!
No salary cap,  generally players are team controlled for three years in the majors (500k per year approximately)  then arbitration eligible for three years then free agents unless they sign an extension at some point, there are tons of exceptions and nuances,  but that's the basic formula

Edit JCA beat me to it- the part about looking luxury tax is really important since it chance in the new cba and us onerous enough that most teams are expected to attempt to avoid it

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #86: October 13, 2012, 07:40:02 PM »
and much more succinct than my treatise.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #87: October 13, 2012, 09:36:15 PM »
Speaking of the Cubs, I gotta imagine they'd be open to offers about Jeff Samardzija .... not sure what it would take though

Offline Vega

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #88: October 13, 2012, 09:39:41 PM »
Don't let Vega hear you say that. It'll probably make him sick


Meh. If we were to acquire an SI swimsuit model, I'd prefer Cintia Dicker. By the way, I updated the Lego thread to help cheer you guys up.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #89: October 13, 2012, 09:53:56 PM »
Meh. If we were to acquire an SI swimsuit model, I'd prefer Cintia Dicker. By the way, I updated the Lego thread to help cheer you guys up.

Does it include Kate Upton?

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #90: October 13, 2012, 10:20:45 PM »
Or Justin Masterson. Move him and that heavy sinker over to the NL and let our infield eat up the ground balls

Offline imref

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #91: October 13, 2012, 11:19:00 PM »
Speaking of the Cubs, I gotta imagine they'd be open to offers about Jeff Samardzija .... not sure what it would take though

we could let him use Werth's walk-up music.

Offline 0ricky0

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #92: October 14, 2012, 01:32:50 AM »
Ah-ha, I've got it! We do what ever it takes to lure back Todd Coffey; a rack-of-lamb and a crumb donut, gift certificate for an all you can eat dinning experience at the local Sizzler, whatever it takes! With his girth and experience, we can coast into the playoffs next year with a decent shot at the WS!!

Offline PC

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #93: October 14, 2012, 02:31:55 AM »
Sign Ryan Madson.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #94: October 14, 2012, 06:56:51 AM »
$5 mil is a lot of money for insurance, it doesn't make sense to me to pay that much money if he's not in our long term plans.

stop trolling - they paid like 1 million for DeRosa to sit on the bench, 1 million for Lidge to suck, and I think at least 1 million for 5 games of Izturis.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #95: October 14, 2012, 07:32:28 AM »
Sign Ryan Madson.

I'm down with that, but it would have to be on the cheap.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #96: October 14, 2012, 08:23:44 AM »
I'm down with that, but it would have to be on the cheap.

why?  Plus, he's going to be looking for a closers job, I'd imagine.

Offline spidernat

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #97: October 14, 2012, 08:48:52 AM »
and I think at least 1 million for 5 games of Izturis.

Probably typed that with a straight face.  :lmao:


Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #98: October 14, 2012, 08:55:39 AM »
Sign Ryan Madson.

One bad game and Storen is no longer the closer?

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #99: October 14, 2012, 09:43:51 AM »
One bad game and Storen is no longer the closer?

Panic monkeys.