Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 70663 times)

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Online Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #525: October 19, 2012, 08:47:33 AM »
Been away for a few days, but man what is going on in here?  Why would you move Zimmerman to first when he would be a barely league average bat at 1st?  Especially if you have someone like T-Mo who is still young enough and has the potential of being a league plus bat with home runs, and may also provide fairly good average with acceptable amounts (read high) of strikeouts?

Yes Zimmerman has issues throwing the ball.  Remember that in 2010 he was throwing to Dunn all season.  I understand that if Zimm throws a bad ball that is called as an error because it pulls a guy of the bag or it's over his head or low, but honestly how much of Adam Dunn-ness gets factored in here?  Zimm also gets to more balls than your league average 3B, and he and Wright are the only guys that really make those insane plays.  Wright just throws better.

Cliff notes version here is until you know that Rendon provides better defense and a MLB ready bat at 3B, there is no point to move Zimmerman over there when you have options internally with Moore or Morse.  My bet is on trying to resign LaRoche and trading Morse.  If you don't sign LaRoche, I'd still trade LaRoche and play Moore everyday at 1st.

Team needs pitching.  Get more of that.

Actually, Zim's OPS this season was .824. That would be good enough for 12th amongst first basemen with 500 PA or more. And post-cortisone shot, he OPS'd .967. His bat would carry at first. We move Zimmerman to first because Rendon is probably not a second baseman and we need his bat in the lineup. Whether it's this year or in 2014 remains to be seen. I don't see a plus bat in Tyler Moore. I see Ike Davis with fewer home runs.

Zimmerman has averaged a throwing error about ever 10-12 games in his career. Adam Dunn or Adam Laroche hasn't made a difference. It's not like Ian Desmond where he throws it in the dirt and they have a shot at getting scooped. When Zim's throws go bad, they're usually about 15 feet over the first baseman.

I agree with the notion that we certainly have options. But when Rendon's bat is ready (and for the record, we're talking about a .300 20+ homer bat) he's going to need some place to play. That day could be as early as next season, so it's worth discussing. Zimmerman has stated previously he's open to the idea.

And I assume you meant trade Morse, not Laroche

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #526: October 19, 2012, 08:50:59 AM »
Having Granderson would be almost like having Adam Dunn's bat back in the lineup.  But playing CF this time around.

It would be interesting to see, anyway.

I think I'd prefer a more traditional CF with better defense.  Maybe Victorino on a 2 or 3 year deal.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #527: October 19, 2012, 08:54:34 AM »
Been away for a few days, but man what is going on in here?  Why would you move Zimmerman to first when he would be a barely league average bat at 1st?  Especially if you have someone like T-Mo who is still young enough and has the potential of being a league plus bat with home runs, and may also provide fairly good average with acceptable amounts (read high) of strikeouts?

Yes Zimmerman has issues throwing the ball.  Remember that in 2010 he was throwing to Dunn all season.  I understand that if Zimm throws a bad ball that is called as an error because it pulls a guy of the bag or it's over his head or low, but honestly how much of Adam Dunn-ness gets factored in here?  Zimm also gets to more balls than your league average 3B, and he and Wright are the only guys that really make those insane plays.  Wright just throws better.

Cliff notes version here is until you know that Rendon provides better defense and a MLB ready bat at 3B, there is no point to move Zimmerman over there when you have options internally with Moore or Morse.  My bet is on trying to resign LaRoche and trading Morse.  If you don't sign LaRoche, I'd still trade LaRoche and play Moore everyday at 1st.

Team needs pitching.  Get more of that.


It's only one person arguing in favor of moving Zim to first and starting a rookie at 3B.  Rendon has played a total of 43 games in his professional career and only half of those at AA.  The rest have come in rookie ball and A ball.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rendon001ant

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #528: October 19, 2012, 08:56:28 AM »
but a lot of people exaggerating a nuanced position

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #529: October 19, 2012, 08:58:10 AM »
ZDK -
Quote
This year his BABIP was a career-low .260 which is a full .045 points below his career line.  In 2011, his BABIP was .035 points higher than in 2012 and his AVG. was .030 points higher than in 2012.  In 2010, his BABIP was .017 points higher than in 2012 and in turn, his AVG. in 2010 was .015 points higher than in 2012.  He might have just turned into a low average high power guy as a Yankee, but the stats indicate that there is a strong chance that he is merely unlucky.  Just my two cents.     

I would not buy his career BABIP as what to expect going forward.  I think he is a different hitter since Kevin Long started to work with him.  Jump in K% since moving to the Yankees without an increase in walks.  Much more swinging for the fences.  That may have even started a year earlier.  Before that, he was either 1:1 in GB to FB, or more often GB:FB ratio of 1+:1.  From 2009 (last year with the tigers) on, he was 1:1.5 GB:FB.  With a change in the GB:FB ratio, you'd expect the BABIP to come down.  He's been below .305 BABIP for the last 4 years, when he had not been below .316 before that.

Online Kevrock

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #530: October 19, 2012, 08:58:52 AM »
It's only one person arguing in favor of moving Zim to first and starting a rookie at 3B.  Rendon has played a total of 43 games in his professional career and only half of those at AA.  The rest have come in rookie ball and A ball.

Slate is already backtracking by throwing 2014 out there. When Zim is moved to 1B in 2018 we're going to see the "I told you so" thread.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #531: October 19, 2012, 09:34:20 AM »
Actually, Zim's OPS this season was .824. That would be good enough for 12th amongst first basemen with 500 PA or more. And post-cortisone shot, he OPS'd .967. His bat would carry at first. We move Zimmerman to first because Rendon is probably not a second baseman and we need his bat in the lineup. Whether it's this year or in 2014 remains to be seen. I don't see a plus bat in Tyler Moore. I see Ike Davis with fewer home runs.

Zimmerman has averaged a throwing error about ever 10-12 games in his career. Adam Dunn or Adam Laroche hasn't made a difference. It's not like Ian Desmond where he throws it in the dirt and they have a shot at getting scooped. When Zim's throws go bad, they're usually about 15 feet over the first baseman.

I agree with the notion that we certainly have options. But when Rendon's bat is ready (and for the record, we're talking about a .300 20+ homer bat) he's going to need some place to play. That day could be as early as next season, so it's worth discussing. Zimmerman has stated previously he's open to the idea.

And I assume you meant trade Morse, not Laroche

Alright, well I'll just say I don't agree with moving Zimmerman to first, at least at this point in his career.  If you are willing to say that you see an Ike Davis with Moore but also are saying to move Zimm to first because he makes too many throwing errors and we should bring up a rookie to play the hot corner everyday, I think you are just willing to overlook lots of things.

Zimm makes errors.  He is also well regarded by many statistics and players as one of the best defensive third baseman in the game.  He makes bad throws on routine plays, but also more often than not is turning double plays that usually don't get turned, stopping balls with well timed leaps from going into LF, and taking bunt hits away from teams.  If you can't see his defensive value at 3rd is close to the top and he also provides a league top bat at the position, then you probably never will.

To me, Rendon either plays 2nd for this team if Espinosa continues to falter, or he gets traded away to bring back future pieces.  I go off of what I see as well rather than straight up numbers so I can't say that I've watched enough of Rendon to say he is going to be better, the same, or worse than Zimmerman at 3B, but this team has a guy who played some low minor ball and a small amount of AA.  Is his bat ready or is it still in Aluminum bat mode?  Zimm hasn't had ankle issues, but throwing shoulder and abdominal issues.  Rendon HAS had ankle issues and it makes me wonder if he can stay healthy enough through his career to even play the hot corner.

Also, I did mean Morse, not LaRoche.  Typo on my part. :|

Offline WhiteWhale

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #532: October 19, 2012, 09:41:40 AM »
this thread is so going to destroy last year's on total posts

Do we have a read on the success rate - and what is considered success - with the Surgery Zn will be having on the shoulder? Post Surgery is he going to be a legit 3B again, or is he going to be a run him out there 3B for a year, and then a 1B who does not need cortizone?

Sorry if I am asking for info already posted - too much to go through

Online Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #533: October 19, 2012, 10:00:28 AM »
Alright, well I'll just say I don't agree with moving Zimmerman to first, at least at this point in his career.  If you are willing to say that you see an Ike Davis with Moore but also are saying to move Zimm to first because he makes too many throwing errors and we should bring up a rookie to play the hot corner everyday, I think you are just willing to overlook lots of things.

Zimm makes errors.  He is also well regarded by many statistics and players as one of the best defensive third baseman in the game.  He makes bad throws on routine plays, but also more often than not is turning double plays that usually don't get turned, stopping balls with well timed leaps from going into LF, and taking bunt hits away from teams.  If you can't see his defensive value at 3rd is close to the top and he also provides a league top bat at the position, then you probably never will.

To me, Rendon either plays 2nd for this team if Espinosa continues to falter, or he gets traded away to bring back future pieces.  I go off of what I see as well rather than straight up numbers so I can't say that I've watched enough of Rendon to say he is going to be better, the same, or worse than Zimmerman at 3B, but this team has a guy who played some low minor ball and a small amount of AA.  Is his bat ready or is it still in Aluminum bat mode?  Zimm hasn't had ankle issues, but throwing shoulder and abdominal issues.  Rendon HAS had ankle issues and it makes me wonder if he can stay healthy enough through his career to even play the hot corner.

Also, I did mean Morse, not LaRoche.  Typo on my part. :|

I figure wait and see how the surgery goes. As for a rookie playing the hot corner, Zim was a rookie and did just fine. And, like I said, it's his bat that I'm more concerned with. He was projected to go number 1 overall for a reason. We took him at 6 for a reason. All I ever read is how amazing his swing is. It was rated higher than Harper's. If the bat is legit, we try and play him wherever. I'm just not sure he can last at second. Though, if he puts up Robinson Cano type numbers, who really cares?

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #534: October 19, 2012, 10:22:01 AM »
When we're talking about grabbing a bat this offseasn, I think the deciding factor in all of this is Adam LaRoche. Everything seems to revolve around him. If he gets an extension then the dominos fall towards Morse. If he doesn't, then the dominoes fall towards which slot we fill (LF or CF)... etc

I wonder when we'll hear a decision on LaRoche. We don't want to wait too long since we may miss out on some options.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #535: October 19, 2012, 11:44:19 AM »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2012/10/19/nationals-positional-review-part-5-bullpen/

Kilgore's review of the bullpen.  Talks about potentially trading Clippard, bringing HRod back for another look in the spring, and possibly signing Ryan Madson.

Clippard plus Morse is an attractive trade package to a contending team.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #536: October 19, 2012, 11:49:59 AM »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2012/10/19/nationals-positional-review-part-5-bullpen/

Kilgore's review of the bullpen.  Talks about potentially trading Clippard, bringing HRod back for another look in the spring, and possibly signing Ryan Madson.

Clippard plus Morse is an attractive trade package to a contending team.


Clippard and Morse could net us something big, or at least be the start of a package for something bigger. Madson would be nice. I don't trust Hrod anymore. I want to see what Cole does when he's healthy and ready.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #537: October 19, 2012, 11:59:07 AM »
Our biggest hole by far is bullpen.  So why would we trade Clippard, arguably our best bullpen arm?

Also I hope we do give HRod one more chance this year. 

Online Kevrock

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #538: October 19, 2012, 12:05:50 PM »
Also I hope we do give HRod one more chance this year. 

Please no.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #539: October 19, 2012, 12:07:41 PM »
Please no.

We were all losing our minds during the LA series this year, but I think we lost our minds much more during G5 a week ago.  We have a good enough team to lose a few regular season games giving HRod one more chance.  His skills are insane if he can work out his head issues. 

Online Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #540: October 19, 2012, 12:32:22 PM »
I too was wondering about Clippard. He can close. And I think Garcia is ready for the 8th inning role. I was really impressed with him in the playoffs.

Henry will get a chance no matter what. His performance can easily be blamed on not being mentally ready for the closer's role and his injury issues. He has flashed brillance. We get HRod back to where was at the end of the 2011 and beginning of 2012 and the bullpen could be pretty devestating.


Offline lastobjective

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #541: October 19, 2012, 12:40:08 PM »
Henry will get a chance no matter what. His performance can easily be blamed on not being mentally ready for the closer's role and his injury issues. He has flashed brillance. We get HRod back to where was at the end of the 2011 and beginning of 2012 and the bullpen could be pretty devastating.

Which is why I'm completely OK with giving him a second chance, I'm hoping that at least half of his problems were medical. I'd love to see him come into his best form.

And hell, we gave Clippard quite a few chances after his mental/physical meltdowns in the latter half of 2012 and after some tweaking and confidence boosting he was back to good form for the playoffs. Players can get past their mental blocks. And with H-Rod healthy I hope he has the chance to.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #542: October 19, 2012, 12:42:14 PM »
The reason you trade Clippard is because he isn't the best bullpen arm the Nats have and he also doesn't have the best stuff, just a really quirky delivery.  He had a bad year from the All-Star break on forward and I'm convinced by this point that Garcia or Mattheus are better options as 8th inning guys.

Clippard and Morse will not net as big of a haul as people think they will.  As fans we all tend to overrate our players, but to be honest we have a great Set-Up man with a wonky delivery and a good change-up who has let the ball fly out of the park a few times and a great hitter who hits to all fields, tends to have a high K rate, and isn't mobile enough to be a plus defender at any one position except for maybe first base.

The Nats will not use Morse at 1st as long as LaRoche plays here, and unless you are Slate, Moore can be a potential Morse like bat at a younger age.  Clippard also has a handful of other relievers who  may be better suited to setting up Storen.  I think the smartest thing is to dangle them to see what you get for them (no one is trading them to get an MLB piece back like a stud CF who can lead off or a Trevor Rosenthal) and fill positions with some guys within the organization and the potential FA signing.

2012 Nats gone in 2013 - Morse LF, Clippard SU, Mike Gonzalez LHP, DeRosa U, Flores C, Lannan LHP, Jackson RHP.

2013 Nats not on team in 2012 - Madson RHP, B.J. Upton CF, Greinke RHP.

Offline cmdterps44

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #543: October 19, 2012, 12:42:36 PM »
I was about to give him an injury when he blew the Reds game by himself. As well as all 40 of the other games he blew.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #544: October 19, 2012, 12:42:44 PM »
There was never anything physically wrong with HRod. He is what he is.

Any surgery he had was a routine cleanup and would have been held to the end of the season had he not completely fell apart.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #545: October 19, 2012, 01:01:38 PM »
Morse plus Clippard to the Red Sox for Ellsbury?

Clippard has pitched a ton of innings over the past few years.  I don't think he's a good bet to continue to hold up.  His value is also relatively high right now.  To me, that makes him a good trade candidate.

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #546: October 19, 2012, 01:07:16 PM »
I figure wait and see how the surgery goes. As for a rookie playing the hot corner, Zim was a rookie and did just fine. And, like I said, it's his bat that I'm more concerned with. He was projected to go number 1 overall for a reason. We took him at 6 for a reason. All I ever read is how amazing his swing is. It was rated higher than Harper's. If the bat is legit, we try and play him wherever. I'm just not sure he can last at second. Though, if he puts up Robinson Cano type numbers, who really cares?

Zimmy was also highly regarded for his glove when he was drafted more so than his bat.

Online Kevrock

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #547: October 19, 2012, 01:16:19 PM »
We were all losing our minds during the LA series this year, but I think we lost our minds much more during G5 a week ago.  We have a good enough team to lose a few regular season games giving HRod one more chance.  His skills are insane if he can work out his head issues.

Not sure my heart can take it.

Online Kevrock

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #548: October 19, 2012, 01:17:33 PM »
The reason you trade Clippard is because he isn't the best bullpen arm the Nats have and he also doesn't have the best stuff, just a really quirky delivery.

Clippard has excellent stuff.

Offline spidernat

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #549: October 19, 2012, 01:19:19 PM »
HRod will end up Storening himself in game 7 of the NLCS.