Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 71946 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2875: December 10, 2012, 01:19:50 PM »
Let's put it this way: in the previous 5 seasons, there have been exactly 5 player seasons where a player (a) was 35 or older, (b) had 600 plate appearances, and (c) played 75% of his games at 1B.

3 of those players had good seasons - Carlos Delgado at age 36 in 2008, Paul Konerko at age 35 in 2011, and Todd Helton at age 35 in 2009. Kevin Millar was terrible for Baltimore in 2008, and we know what happened to Carlos Lee this year.

So not only are you arguing that we should project Adam LaRoche to do something that not very many people ever do, but also that we project him to be valuable, similar to 3 much better hitters.

I'm sticking with my position that a 1B should not expect any money as a FA in his mid-30s. In all likelihood, even if Adam LaRoche can still put up a mid-700s OPS (which is a question in itself) there will likely be a minor league hitter who can do the same thing for $500,000 in 2015, no matter what team you're talking about.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2876: December 10, 2012, 01:42:36 PM »
As far as where LaRoche ranks as a hitter with those guys:

Career OPS+ through age 32 season
Todd Helton 145
Carlos Delgado 142
Kevin Millar 121
Carlos Lee 117
Paul Konerko 116
Adam LaRoche 114

Other ways to view it: LaRoche ranks 16/19 in career OPS+ among 1B accumulating 4000 or more plate appearances through their age-32 seasons from 1995 to current. In general, it's fair to say these guys do NOT age well (in order going down, Pujols, Bagwell, Helton, Fielder, Delgado, Vaughn, Gonzalez, Howard, Teixeira, Olerud, Pena, Morneau, Lee, Sexson, Konerko, LaRoche, Clark, Casey, Travis Lee).

I guess you can cling to Konerko, otherwise you have to head pretty far up that list to warrant LaRoche having significant value at age 35.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2877: December 10, 2012, 01:44:29 PM »
Excellent breakdown, NJ Ave!

Thank LaRoche for his services, but he was paid well for those services.  Time to wish him well as he moves on to another team.  Nats are fine at 1B with Morse next year and Rendon/Moore down the road.

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2878: December 10, 2012, 02:18:13 PM »
Excellent breakdown, NJ Ave!

Thank LaRoche for his services, but he was paid well for those services.  Time to wish him well as he moves on to another team.  Nats are fine at 1B with Morse next year and Rendon/Moore down the road.

I'm not interested in overpaying for LaRoche, but I'm also not going to write him off just because he'll be 35 three years from now. It may just be an issue of money at that point and considering the LAC/LANC crowd, who cares if we have to pay him in 2015? It's not like we'd be locking ourselves into an Arod situation for crying out loud. And then you're assuming that Rendon will move to 1st and/or Moore will pan out. Neither of those are any more promised than LaRoche being done at 35.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2879: December 10, 2012, 02:31:20 PM »
I think we're mixing up arguments here. I'm answering the question, "why should Adam LaRoche hold out so hard for an extra year, won't he still have value 2 years from now?"

My response is no, if we're judging from history.

I do agree that if he settles for 2/$25 or so, there's not a huge risk and he likely gives us value in those two seasons (and that even if he does not, Tyler Moore likely gives us something close).

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2880: December 10, 2012, 03:18:20 PM »
Konerko really took off after age 32. Dang.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2881: December 10, 2012, 03:25:25 PM »
Yeah, he was in a normal aging curve with a 112 OPS+ in his 31-33 years and then put up an OPS+ of 143 for his 34-36 years.

He probably has a 20% shot at 500 homeruns, which is just weird (422 heading into his age-37 season, 26 last year).

Offline welch

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2882: December 10, 2012, 03:38:58 PM »
Let's put it this way: in the previous 5 seasons, there have been exactly 5 player seasons where a player (a) was 35 or older, (b) had 600 plate appearances, and (c) played 75% of his games at 1B.

3 of those players had good seasons - Carlos Delgado at age 36 in 2008, Paul Konerko at age 35 in 2011, and Todd Helton at age 35 in 2009. Kevin Millar was terrible for Baltimore in 2008, and we know what happened to Carlos Lee this year.

So not only are you arguing that we should project Adam LaRoche to do something that not very many people ever do, but also that we project him to be valuable, similar to 3 much better hitters.

I'm sticking with my position that a 1B should not expect any money as a FA in his mid-30s. In all likelihood, even if Adam LaRoche can still put up a mid-700s OPS (which is a question in itself) there will likely be a minor league hitter who can do the same thing for $500,000 in 2015, no matter what team you're talking about.


This first baseman died a couple of years ago, but he certainly hit some after he turned 32:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vernomi01.shtml

That's our own Mickey Vernon, who had quite a career just for the eight seasons that start when he turned 33. Not shabby before that, either: AL batting champ in 1946 with a .353 average.

Why not keep both LaRoche and Morse? Depth helped last season.

Offline Squab

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2883: December 10, 2012, 03:42:25 PM »
Why not keep both LaRoche and Morse? Depth helped last season.
I wish, it probably wouldn't be good to have Morse on sitting on the bench and playing occaisonally/PHing until someone got hurt though, I'm sure he wants to play every day.

Offline comish4lif

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2884: December 10, 2012, 04:09:07 PM »
Stability for his family. Three years in one city is better than two years.
So, then he just needs a 1 year deal to stay in DC.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2885: December 10, 2012, 04:33:39 PM »
Yeah, he was in a normal aging curve with a 112 OPS+ in his 31-33 years and then put up an OPS+ of 143 for his 34-36 years.

He probably has a 20% shot at 500 homeruns, which is just weird (422 heading into his age-37 season, 26 last year).

Given the age in which we live, rightly or wrongly, this probably puts him under suspicion of getting chemical help.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2886: December 11, 2012, 10:36:16 PM »
We should have been in on Bauer somehow :(

Online zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2887: December 11, 2012, 11:10:56 PM »
We should have been in on Bauer somehow :(

Towers just really like Gregorius and if that's who he really wanted then we couldn't have done anything about it.

Offline NationalHeat

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2888: December 12, 2012, 09:15:53 AM »
Towers just really like Gregorius and if that's who he really wanted then we couldn't have done anything about it.

Had they offered Bauer for Espi, would you have done it?

Even I would've said yes to that and I :az: him.

Online PC

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2889: December 12, 2012, 03:01:04 PM »
So, the reason we haven't signed a lefty reliever is?

Online zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2890: December 12, 2012, 03:29:01 PM »
So, the reason we haven't signed a lefty reliever is?

LAC

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2891: December 12, 2012, 03:29:23 PM »
So, the reason we haven't signed a lefty reliever is?

Strasburg is going to throw lefty when he isn't starting.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2892: December 12, 2012, 03:42:38 PM »
So, the reason we haven't signed a lefty reliever is?
Rick Ankiel?

Personally I'd offer a $2M deal to Francisco Liriano and let him think about relieving for a living.

Offline Squab

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2893: December 12, 2012, 03:49:52 PM »
Rick Ankiel?
I'd be so psyched to see if him try and pitch again. I bet he could still crank it up to 90 or so.

Offline BIGDADDYEMPIRE

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2894: December 12, 2012, 04:07:15 PM »
I'd be so psyched to see if him try and pitch again. I bet he could still crank it up to 92 or so.

Remember that guy's curve.  It was one of the best I've ever seen before the yips got him.

Offline Squab

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2895: December 12, 2012, 04:44:24 PM »
Remember that guy's curve.  It was one of the best I've ever seen before the yips got him.

Here's some video of him, completely wild:
http://youtu.be/TERGgnFzAcM
http://youtu.be/KntQ1K70mHY
But there is a nice curveball here:
http://youtu.be/TERGgnFzAcM?t=2m43s
He throws a few other ones.

Here he is later in the series out of the pen:
http://youtu.be/rTSNi9v4hLo
Painted a 95 mph fastball at 3:44, beautiful curve at 4:30. He was still completely wild, but better.

Poor guy.

Offline BrandonK

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2896: December 12, 2012, 06:24:18 PM »
Rick Ankiel?

Personally I'd offer a $2M deal to Francisco Liriano and let him think about relieving for a living.

I like Liriano, because it then gives another SP in a pinch.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2897: December 12, 2012, 07:07:52 PM »
I think HRod has been more wild than that.

Anyone think of giving HRod a shot in CF?

Offline imref

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2898: December 13, 2012, 10:04:45 AM »
DeRosa wants to return to the Nats.  I'd offer him a minor league deal and see if he'd be willing to play at Syracuse as an injury replacement standby.

Offline Rasta

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2899: December 13, 2012, 04:30:25 PM »
Jayson Stark ‏@jaysonst
Clubs pursuing Mike Adams say he could sign in next couple of days. Among teams linked to him: Nats, Jays, Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, Brewers

He would be a nice addition to the bullpen.  He had a bit of a rough year last year but his numbers outside of Texas were still good.  For his career, he's been good against lefties and righties.  Not sure if last year was a Texas ballpark thing or if he's starting to wear down with age.

Philly is supposedly really interested.  Not sure he would do well in that ballpark though.