Author Topic: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread  (Read 73625 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2012/13 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #2625: December 05, 2012, 11:30:29 AM »
Does anyone else really not get the all-out rush for Greinke? Not that he's not a "good" player, but there's talk that he might eclipse CC Sabathia's 7/$161 contract.

Going into that contract, CC Sabathia was heading into his age 28 season and had just ended a 3-year run where he pitched 230 innings per season with a 3.03 ERA (145 ERA+), including an unbelievable 17-start run with Milwaukee where he went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 7 complete games.

Meanwhile, Greinke is a year older and is ending a 3-year run where he's pitched 201 innings per season with a 3.83 ERA (106 ERA+).

Stats people have pretty much acknowledged that some pitchers (Matt Cain is the best example) consistently outperform their metrics. What if Greinke consistently UNDERPERFORMS his metrics? After all, conventional wisdom says that Greinke's .306 BABIP this year was a bit unlucky, and should really be in the .290 range (part of the reason his ERA was higher than his FIP this year). But what do we make of the fact that his CAREER BABIP is .308, or that it's been .303 or higher ever year since 2004?

All I'm saying is that I wouldn't give $150+ million to a guy who doesn't have a great record of ACTUAL performance, in addition to a great record of EXPECTED performance. And Greinke only has the 31st best pitcher WAR over the past three seasons if you start with actual runs allowed (the baseball-reference version). He's right between Shawn Marcum and Gavin Floyd.