Willy Taveras in Coors was 1.5 defensive wins better than Dexter Fowler according to both Total Zone and UZR. So if you're going by that, and Taveras is a 1 win defensive player outside of Coors, Fowler is likely to be slightly below average.
And I distrust defensive metrics as well. So go ahead and find me a single scouting mention of Fowler having decent defense. Everything I read is below average.
If you apply ESPN's park factors to bring Fowler's Coors Field numbers down to a neutral offensive environment (which Nationals Park is, roughly), you get a slash line of .260/.362/.405. I think that would be a reasonable expectation. You're getting like a Denard Span or Michael Brantley. Not to say that's not valuable, but why is it more valuable than what we have now? I mean, if you want that, just put Roger Bernadina in LF and have him lead off. Don't waste an asset when Colorado is going to be looking for a lot more than Skole or Moore for him.
Tavaras posted negative UZR and DRS. He wasn't any better in CF yet magically, he plays elsewhere and he's a defensive stud.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=451594Colorado won't be getting a whole lot more than Skole/Moore for him and they know it.
