Author Topic: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS  (Read 6721 times)

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Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #200: October 15, 2012, 09:17:04 PM »
That's such apologist bullcrap.  I can buy into the argument that shutting down Stras was the best move for his long  term development and therefore the best move long term for the team, I don't agree with this since there is no medical science to back it up, but at least I understand the argument.  The idea that Stras would have had no impact on the outcome of the series is officially on the list of dumbest statements in Nats message board history.  Voluntarily shutting down one of our top performers had nothing whatsoever to do with the series loss???  The logic on this one is absolutely mystifying.

Except The Strasburg "Mistake" implies we would have won if he wasn't shut down. That's impossible to know; he could have crapped the bed as bad as Storen for all we know. Discussion of the topic is fine but the title is very leading as it is. The Strasburg "Decision" is much more appropriate.

Offline spidernat

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #201: October 15, 2012, 09:18:26 PM »
Except The Strasburg "Mistake" implies we would have won if he wasn't shut down. That's impossible to know; he could have crapped the bed as bad as Storen for all we know. Discussion of the topic is fine but the title is very leading as it is. The Strasburg "Decision" is much more rational and appropriate.

"sanity"  :clap:

Offline Fan037

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #202: October 15, 2012, 09:45:39 PM »
Except The Strasburg "Mistake" implies we would have won if he wasn't shut down. That's impossible to know; he could have crapped the bed as bad as Storen for all we know. Discussion of the topic is fine but the title is very leading as it is. The Strasburg "Decision" is much more appropriate.

Thank you!

Offline The Chief

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #203: October 15, 2012, 10:03:17 PM »
I'm not arguing in favor of one title or the other, but I don't think it should be changed against MorseTheHorse's will at this point.  He made his argument, people responded.  Continued discussion on the matter shouldn't necessitate a title change unless OP wishes to change it himself.

Online Kevrock

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #204: October 15, 2012, 10:16:44 PM »
Shouldn't it be merged into whatever master "Strasburg Shutdown" thread emerged as the champion of the 938475938475345 threads on this subject?

Offline The Chief

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #205: October 15, 2012, 10:32:20 PM »
Nah.  We're backing off on merging for now, it's just a waste of time until everyone gets the collapse out of their systems.  Besides, I think this thread IS that thread.

Online Kevrock

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #206: October 15, 2012, 10:39:22 PM »
Nah.  We're backing off on merging for now, it's just a waste of time until everyone gets the collapse out of their systems.


Okay. I do think the title is ridiculous and unproveable, but that reflects on the OP.

Quote
Besides, I think this thread IS that thread.


The ones I was speaking of:

Strasburg in October: http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=26252.msg1109615#msg1109615
Should Strasburg be Shutdown?: http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=27488.msg1118265#msg1118265
Strasburg has been Shutdown: http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=27659.msg1130178#msg1130178

Offline The Chief

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #207: October 15, 2012, 10:45:09 PM »
All of those threads ran their course, IMO.  Two of them haven't been posted to in months, the other was somewhat necro'd.  Besides, this is a distinctly different argument centering around the same decision.  But still a different argument.

Online Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #208: October 15, 2012, 10:56:28 PM »
How about the "Is Rizzo the new Kevorkian" thread?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #209: October 16, 2012, 09:08:38 AM »
I think near the top of this thread I explained why I do not think this thread should be merged and why it is not a dead issue.  http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=27948.0;msg=1143364

those prior threads were more or less about the plan for Stras's season and the news he would be shut down.  this thread is more dealing with the aftermath of the decision.  There will be year's of discussion about this.  MtH's view, pretty clear in the OP, is that this was a clear error.  Others disagree. That's what threads are for.

Offline shoeshineboy

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #210: October 16, 2012, 09:29:54 AM »
Except The Strasburg "Mistake" implies we would have won if he wasn't shut down. That's impossible to know; he could have crapped the bed as bad as Storen for all we know. Discussion of the topic is fine but the title is very leading as it is. The Strasburg "Decision" is much more appropriate.

This is correct. He could have had two lights out starts and had a major impact. He also would have likely cancelled Det's start, so that would have been lost. So, who knows. He also could have had a bad start (a la Wainright) and then put the morale of the team in the toilet. It is simply impossible to know what would have happened. Saying that if he had not been shutdown we would have won is hogwash, because we don't know if it would have happened or if not shutting him down could have had the opposite impact where he faltered in remaining starts and we ended up losing out to the Braves and/or losing worse in the playoffs.

Again, the only argument is whether they should have opted to protect the player or roll the dice. It's a question of priorities.


Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #211: October 16, 2012, 09:35:19 AM »
This is correct. He could have had two lights out starts and had a major impact. He also would have likely cancelled Det's start, so that would have been lost. So, who knows. He also could have had a bad start (a la Wainright) and then put the morale of the team in the toilet. It is simply impossible to know what would have happened. Saying that if he had not been shutdown we would have won is hogwash, because we don't know if it would have happened or if not shutting him down could have had the opposite impact where he faltered in remaining starts and we ended up losing out to the Braves and/or losing worse in the playoffs.

Again, the only argument is whether they should have opted to protect the player or roll the dice. It's a question of priorities.

Priorities and probabilities, in my opinion the probability of Stras making a positive impact on the Nats playoff performance was very high, the probability of 4-5 extra starts having a negative long term affect on his career was very low.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #212: October 16, 2012, 10:22:03 AM »
Except The Strasburg "Mistake" implies we would have won if he wasn't shut down.

I disagree this is what it means.  The Decision was a question of priorities and the title implies I thought we prioritized the wrong things (long term health over a better chance at a playoff run this year).

I will also say I find many of the analysis about how Stras would have impacted the series laughably simplistic (it's hard to do much mroe than a simplistic analysis, but to then conclude as many did, "See Stras wouldn't have changed anything" is just silly).  Everything is different with Stras on the lineup, and I mean in a butterfly flapping its wings chaos theory type way.  The whole atmosphere of the series is different.

A few more things

1) Even if we stick to simplistic analysis (which to be fair is all the can really be done) If Stras plays, then Detwiler is in the bullpen.  Detwiler in the bullpen G5 could have been the difference. 

2) I was at Game 5, and had the feeling even when we were up 6-0 of this (going to the NLCS) can't really be happening.  Maybe it's being a DC sports fan all these years, but when it comes to sports I think I'm a bit terrified of success.  But another part of it goes back to the atmosphere created by the shutdown.  The atmosphere created was that the playoffs this year were treated as gravy, and I'm just worried in a few years we will really regret that.

3) All this said, there is much more to blame for the series loss then the Stras shutdown.  Storen, Davey, Danny, Edwin and more come to mind for me.  This isn't a thread about that tho, but I just want to be clear

Online Ray D

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #213: October 16, 2012, 10:29:43 AM »
If Stras plays, then Detwiler is in the bullpen. 

Are you sure about that?  If Strasburg had been on the roster, then someone who was actually on the roster wouldn't have been. Presumably a pitcher.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #214: October 16, 2012, 10:33:06 AM »
Changed the thread title.  After reading the complaints, I looked around at other threads on this board and they seem to be neutrally-titled, so I thought I'd try to do the same here. 

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #215: October 16, 2012, 10:34:52 AM »
Are you sure about that?  If Strasburg had been on the roster, then someone who was actually on the roster wouldn't have been. Presumably a pitcher.


I would think so.  Generally speaking starting pitchers>>relief pitchers.  Lance Lynn, Zim and Edwin all came out of the pen this series.  Especially with his history as a reliever, there is no question Det would have made the roster ahead of one of the other relievers. 

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #216: October 16, 2012, 10:49:11 AM »
Are you sure about that?  If Strasburg had been on the roster, then someone who was actually on the roster wouldn't have been. Presumably a pitcher.

He would have replaced Gorzelanny. No loss there


Offline blue911

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #217: October 16, 2012, 10:51:20 AM »
He would have replaced Gorzelanny. No loss there



No, he would have replaced Garcia.

Online Ray D

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #218: October 16, 2012, 10:56:52 AM »
No, he would have replaced Garcia.

No matter, I get the point, Detweiler would have replaced one of them.

Online Ray D

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #219: October 16, 2012, 11:00:43 AM »
Changed the thread title. 

You succumbed to the pressure.  Wish you hadn't.   I am a firm supporter of the Strasburg decision, but I really do not like thread title changes.  if the thread title reflects the bias of the poster who initiates the thread, so what?


Offline The Chief

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #220: October 16, 2012, 11:01:17 AM »
You succumbed to the pressure.  Wish you hadn't.   I am a firm supporter of the Strasburg decision, but I really do not like thread title changes.  if the thread title reflects the bias of the poster who initiates the thread, so what?

100% Agree with this.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #221: October 16, 2012, 11:05:10 AM »
No, he would have replaced Garcia.

Not at all. It wouldn't make sense to have 4 lefties in the bullpen vs. a team with no lefty power hitters. He would have replaced Gorzelanny or Gonzalez.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #222: October 16, 2012, 11:07:48 AM »
Heh can't ever win=)

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #223: October 16, 2012, 11:09:37 AM »
I disagree this is what it means.  The Decision was a question of priorities and the title implies I thought we prioritized the wrong things (long term health over a better chance at a playoff run this year).

I will also say I find many of the analysis about how Stras would have impacted the series laughably simplistic (it's hard to do much mroe than a simplistic analysis, but to then conclude as many did, "See Stras wouldn't have changed anything" is just silly).  Everything is different with Stras on the lineup, and I mean in a butterfly flapping its wings chaos theory type way.  The whole atmosphere of the series is different.



Horse - Some good points in your comments and i wanted to address this one.  If Stras started and the atmosphere became more intense with a bigger spotlight and more pressure, would that have necessarily been a good thing?  The Nats already had a bunch of young guys facing that kind of intensity for the first time.  For the most part, they generally wilted - JZ, Gio, Storen, etc.

Offline Fan037

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Re: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS
« Reply #224: October 16, 2012, 11:14:24 AM »
Changed the thread title.  After reading the complaints, I looked around at other threads on this board and they seem to be neutrally-titled, so I thought I'd try to do the same here. 

Not that you had to but I think it makes good sense that you changed the title.  Stating it was a "mistake" to shut  down Strasburg is something none of us will ever know.