Author Topic: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS  (Read 6616 times)

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Offline OldChelsea

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #100: October 11, 2012, 10:53:50 AM »
Could you imagine what these execs and fans would say if the Nats were to pitch him and he had another season-ending or even worse, career ending injury

Exactly. You can't win with some people - doesn't matter what you do or say, either way they start  bellyaching.


Offline GSW

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #102: October 11, 2012, 11:14:58 AM »
And the Nats scored 0 runs today. How is Strasburg relevant?

If Strasburg had pitched the 2nd game....... we will never know..... could have been 4 / 3 not 12 / 4

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #103: October 11, 2012, 11:18:26 AM »
Quote
Many posters have pointed out Strasburg struggled at the very end so he wouldn't have been useful anyways.  A few points:

1) Such posts always have the luxury of picking how many games back to look.  The most common place to pick is 3 games back, b/c his 4th to last start was 6IP 4H 1R 1BB 10K.  Not exactly struggling there.

2) Such posts make the jump from he had a few bad outings to he was wearing down physically.  I'm not sure I buy it.  For one thing, there was the completely believable narrative that Stras struggled b/c he was getting so upset mentally about the impending shut down.  Davey even offered this narrative up as an explanation.  If he was truly wearing down physically I just don't think he could put up starts like he did on Aug 21st and Sep 2.  His end of season seems much more just normal ups and downs of a pitcher to me. 

Four out of his 5 worst starts on xFIP came from 7/20 onwards.  Same for SIERA.

If you use K/BB as an indication of command, while his best 3 starts are after 7/20, his next 7 best were before that date, and overall, 14 out his top 18 were before 7/20.

He had one start after 6/20 where his average fastball was over 96 MPH.  Before and including that date, he had had 6.

His swinging strike percentage was less than 9% 3 times from 7/20 and prior. After 7/20, it was less than 9% 4 out of his final 9 starts.

His stuff and command sure looks like it deteriorated right around the time it was predicted to happen in his recovery process.  It isn't just picking a few starts.


Offline comish4lif

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #104: October 11, 2012, 11:19:41 AM »
If Strasburg had pitched the 2nd game....... we will never know..... could have been 4 / 3 not 12 / 4

Or it could have been even worse. Not sure what the point is there... Maybe Stras would have inspired the team to victory, or he is worn down and wouldn't have pitched well, or he would have felt great and overthrown, or he maybe makes one mistake to Craig and we lose 1-0.

My point, they shut him down for his own long term benefit. And the team has to play without him. Instead, they are laying down, and now, some chuckleheads in the lockerroom are blaming the team's handling of Stras. Freak those guys, Stras wasn't grounding into DPs or hitting lazy fly balls yesterday...

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #105: October 11, 2012, 11:21:51 AM »
freak it.  Activate him and put him in LF and hit him 5th.  He can't be any worse than Morse right now anyway.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #106: October 11, 2012, 11:23:05 AM »
I wonder if high BB/high K players just aren't as good at low k high average players in the playoffs (i.e against presumably better pitchers)

Offline GSW

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #107: October 11, 2012, 11:39:20 AM »
My point, they shut him down for his own long term benefit. And the team has to play without him. Instead, they are laying down, and now, some chuckleheads in the lockerroom are blaming the team's handling of Stras. Freak those guys, Stras wasn't grounding into DPs or hitting lazy fly balls yesterday...

Our point is they, didn't need to shut him down,,,,, IF ,,,, they started him in May not April...

OR REST him for 2 or 3 starts in JUNE, JULY, AUG OR EVEN SEPT !!!!!!!!!!

Thanks Mr. Rizzo  :shrug:

Online welch

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #108: October 11, 2012, 11:44:06 AM »
I wonder if high BB/high K players just aren't as good at low k high average players in the playoffs (i.e against presumably better pitchers)

My suspicion, as well. Pitchers make fewer mistakes, unless they are Jordan Z and Edwin J.

Lombo mambo.

Online wpa2629

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #109: October 11, 2012, 12:19:30 PM »
I don't think they like the audacity of Rizzo to claim the Nats will be winning the East multiple times in the coming year and that there's no need to take any chances with Strasburg because we don't need him to win in the playoffs.

And frankly I don't like it either. I'm glad they won the division. And the future looks promising. But winning the NL East is no easy task. It takes having a great team and a lot of luck.



Come on, he never said anything such thing, Rizzo said time and time again that shutting Stras down was for the long term benefit of the player and the team. He never guaranteed future playoff appearances and he never said that Stras was not needed for the playoffs. Stras was not going to be available, there's a huge difference.

He has always said that the Nats are young and are good and the he hopes to be good for a long time. He has never guaranteed or assumed anything

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #110: October 11, 2012, 12:22:13 PM »
It is a bit of an assumption of promised continued good health and results.

Online wpa2629

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #111: October 11, 2012, 12:25:26 PM »
My point, they shut him down for his own long term benefit. And the team has to play without him. Instead, they are laying down, and now, some chuckleheads in the lockerroom are blaming the team's handling of Stras. Freak those guys, Stras wasn't grounding into DPs or hitting lazy fly balls yesterday...

Our point is they, didn't need to shut him down,,,,, IF ,,,, they started him in May not April...

OR REST him for 2 or 3 starts in JUNE, JULY, AUG OR EVEN SEPT !!!!!!!!!!

Thanks Mr. Rizzo  :shrug:

Rizzo and Davey said time and time again that they wanted him on a set routine to build up arm strength. The also cited how ineffective Jordan was when he had extended rest during his rehab. ( He still has problems with extended rest)

The Yankees tried skipping starts with Hughes to stretch him out after he came back from injury and it was a disaster. There's no guaranteeing it would have helped it may have even cost the Nats the division.

Who knows.

I just find it so impossibly pathetic that GMs would wish harm on the Nats for trying to protect their own. Blows my mind.

The vitriol is disgusting.

Online wpa2629

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #112: October 11, 2012, 12:28:36 PM »
It is a bit of an assumption of promised continued good health and results.

I suppose, but it's still done in the vein of the best interest of the player - and ultimately the team. I just don't understand the vitriol, it's so pathetic

Regardless, Rizzo has never guaranteed future playoffs or division championships or anything like that. He wants to protect Stras now so he can pitch into the future.

People are acting like the Nats put Stras in front of a firing squad.

It's sickening

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #113: October 11, 2012, 12:36:20 PM »
Quality Post JCA.  I'd be curious if you could look at similar stats for Gio or Verlander or some other high-end pitcher who hasn't worn done at the end of this year, just to get a sense of what normal wear-down is like for some other all-star pitchers.  Quality post tho

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #114: October 11, 2012, 12:47:03 PM »
Sure.  I'm really trying not to cherry pick.  I think I've seen that many fastball pitchers gain velocity over the season, but I probably should check. Maybe look at the top 10 fastball starters on fangraphs, go into their game logs, and look at the distribution of their peak velocity games.  more work than I can do now; i hope to be watching Nats games through most of the month so may not get to it for a while.

By the way, the argument that he was deteriorating is different from the argument that he was shut down because he was deteriorating.  The limit was set before he even pitched, so it was not a call based on his deterioration.  The deterioration would be more to confirm that, given the plan to use him every turn without skipping or shorting him innings, he was burning out consistent with that projection.  We can sit here and say, he needed to be shut down when he was, and the deterioration shows he was not able of pitching more innings than that.  What it does not answer is whether the plan was off from the get go and he should have had skipped starts, time in the pen, short starts, more use of Lannan and 6 man rotation turns, etc...

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #115: October 11, 2012, 12:49:36 PM »
Absolutely right.  I might be willing to concede that given where he was when we shut him down that was the only option left based on some of the evidence you posted.  But there were a whole lot ways to avoid us being in that situation with Stras in the first place. 

Online wpa2629

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #116: October 11, 2012, 01:10:38 PM »
Absolutely right.  I might be willing to concede that given where he was when we shut him down that was the only option left based on some of the evidence you posted.  But there were a whole lot ways to avoid us being in that situation with Stras in the first place. 

The only way to avoid it was for Stras to not get injured in the first place.

Anything else has either already been raised and refuted ad nauseum or it's all purely conjecture anyway.

It's very easy for people who have no skin in the game to flap their over-reactive yaps on the subject. I'm sure some rival NL East GM would love for the Nats to pitch Stras into the ground.  It means nothing to them, so they think the have the right to be all high and mighty and sanctimonious. Be more transparent next time jerk

Screw them whoever they are, the Nats are in the post-season and their not, so they can just freak off

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #117: October 11, 2012, 01:14:23 PM »

Anything else has either already been raised and refuted ad nauseum or it's all purely conjecture anyway.


it's been refuted to the liking of people who accept everything out of the front office, some people still haven't seen anyone refute starting him later or giving him a longer rest in the middle of the season. The only refutation I've heard of the starting him later idea is that he's such a mental midget that he'd be sad if he was still at spring training when the team left. I think the success just snuck up on Rizzo and he didn't see a reason to plan a head for October baseball.


Online Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #118: October 11, 2012, 01:15:41 PM »
\natitude/

Screw them whoever they are, the Nats are in the post-season and their not, so they can just freak off


Online wpa2629

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #119: October 11, 2012, 01:21:20 PM »
it's been refuted to the liking of people who accept everything out of the front office, some people still haven't seen anyone refute starting him later or giving him a longer rest in the middle of the season. The only refutation I've heard of the starting him later idea is that he's such a mental midget that he'd be sad if he was still at spring training when the team left. I think the success just snuck up on Rizzo and he didn't see a reason to plan a head for October baseball.



sigh




Online wpa2629

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #120: October 11, 2012, 01:21:53 PM »
\natitude/



There's a typo in my post - spelling Nazi is not going to be pleased :nono:

Offline shoeshineboy

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #121: October 11, 2012, 01:34:23 PM »
it's been refuted to the liking of people who accept everything out of the front office, some people still haven't seen anyone refute starting him later or giving him a longer rest in the middle of the season. The only refutation I've heard of the starting him later idea is that he's such a mental midget that he'd be sad if he was still at spring training when the team left. I think the success just snuck up on Rizzo and he didn't see a reason to plan a head for October baseball.



- Start him later in the season and miss the playoffs by a few wins = complaints that they started him too late
- Start him later in the season, make the playoffs and then have the playoff starts be the ones where the extra month of pitching led right up to him having struggles due to fatigue = complaints that they didn't start him late enough.

Without a crystal ball, those arguments are just plain silly. Same thing goes for shutting him down mid season and starting him back up, which is arguably worse. And the notion that you can simply skip a couple of starts or, even more laughable, pull him out of games earlier to preserve innings, perpetuates the myth that innings pitched was the magic number. That's ass backwards. The number of innings acrued was simply going to logically coincide with some level of ultimate stress on the arm - a huge percentage of which comes from throwing pitches that are never counted in game stats.

The only legitimate argument is simply whether you shut him down at all or pitch him regardless. There are legitimate arguments on both sides of that one. The Nats simply went with the desire to abide by the recommended recovery plan, instead of going with the idea that despite that recommended plan, there is nothing definitive and it is better to roll the dice, the future is now, yada yada . . .

To me, those two sides have legitimate arguments with no right answer. It is a decision you make based upon priorities. The idea that there was some magic regimen of late starting and rests that would knowingly bring about both a successful playoff berth and a healthy Strasburg in top form for the duration is fool hardy.

Online wpa2629

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #122: October 11, 2012, 01:37:26 PM »
SSB is so eloquent -


Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #123: October 11, 2012, 02:08:51 PM »
Sorry, SSB, and WPA, but there were other very credible approaches. 

Go back to the Stark article.  Not that they are perfect, but the Red Sox run their pitching program pretty closely with Andrews disciples, and in the Stark article they talk about the possibility of skipped starts.  Not a cold shut down for a month, which is sort of an straw argument, but just an occasional skipped start.  There are folks willing to put their name on that approach in Stark's article as how they would treat their own players.   there may be other approaches, such as building in more starts with an extra day's rest when games piled up, that are pretty conventional. I'm not doing research now on what has been written on that.

There's no way there were only two credible choices - burn through his innings and shut him down in early September or pitch him continuously despite medical science. 

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #124: October 11, 2012, 02:52:48 PM »
- Start him later in the season and miss the playoffs by a few wins = complaints that they started him too late
- Start him later in the season, make the playoffs and then have the playoff starts be the ones where the extra month of pitching led right up to him having struggles due to fatigue = complaints that they didn't start him late enough.

Without a crystal ball, those arguments are just plain silly. Same thing goes for shutting him down mid season and starting him back up, which is arguably worse. And the notion that you can simply skip a couple of starts or, even more laughable, pull him out of games earlier to preserve innings, perpetuates the myth that innings pitched was the magic number. That's ass backwards. The number of innings acrued was simply going to logically coincide with some level of ultimate stress on the arm - a huge percentage of which comes from throwing pitches that are never counted in game stats.

The only legitimate argument is simply whether you shut him down at all or pitch him regardless. There are legitimate arguments on both sides of that one. The Nats simply went with the desire to abide by the recommended recovery plan, instead of going with the idea that despite that recommended plan, there is nothing definitive and it is better to roll the dice, the future is now, yada yada . . .

To me, those two sides have legitimate arguments with no right answer. It is a decision you make based upon priorities. The idea that there was some magic regimen of late starting and rests that would knowingly bring about both a successful playoff berth and a healthy Strasburg in top form for the duration is fool hardy.

Didn't Earl Weaver used to start off guys as long relievers? I know the twins did with Santana and Liriano before switching them mid season