Author Topic: Strasburg and the 2012 NLDS  (Read 11754 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Strasburg Mistake
« Reply #100: October 11, 2012, 11:18:26 AM »
Many posters have pointed out Strasburg struggled at the very end so he wouldn't have been useful anyways.  A few points:

1) Such posts always have the luxury of picking how many games back to look.  The most common place to pick is 3 games back, b/c his 4th to last start was 6IP 4H 1R 1BB 10K.  Not exactly struggling there.

2) Such posts make the jump from he had a few bad outings to he was wearing down physically.  I'm not sure I buy it.  For one thing, there was the completely believable narrative that Stras struggled b/c he was getting so upset mentally about the impending shut down.  Davey even offered this narrative up as an explanation.  If he was truly wearing down physically I just don't think he could put up starts like he did on Aug 21st and Sep 2.  His end of season seems much more just normal ups and downs of a pitcher to me. 

Four out of his 5 worst starts on xFIP came from 7/20 onwards.  Same for SIERA.

If you use K/BB as an indication of command, while his best 3 starts are after 7/20, his next 7 best were before that date, and overall, 14 out his top 18 were before 7/20.

He had one start after 6/20 where his average fastball was over 96 MPH.  Before and including that date, he had had 6.

His swinging strike percentage was less than 9% 3 times from 7/20 and prior. After 7/20, it was less than 9% 4 out of his final 9 starts.

His stuff and command sure looks like it deteriorated right around the time it was predicted to happen in his recovery process.  It isn't just picking a few starts.