I think this is a must win. We need at least one win out of our RHP starts this series.
Jackson has a nice pitching line for the year at home: 99.1 IP, 3.35 ERA, .226 / .283 /.385. .283 wOBA, 3.58 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP, 3.25 FIP. 50+% GB. September was a little off, more HRs, higher battting average due to a spike in BABIP, but still sub 4 on FIP.
While Jackson's last start v. St. L in St. L was a disaster, his last home start v. the Cards on 8/30 might have been his best start of the year (8 IP, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 10K). Jackson has had the most trouble over his career
with Yadier (8 for 14, 2 HR, 2 BB), Holliday (5 for 19, 1 HR, 1 2b, 1 BB), and Jay (2 for 6 with a 2B). Over his career, the current Cards have a.798 OPS against him, even higher if Schumaker is not in the line up.
Espinosa, Harper, Flo, Moore, and Lombo have not faced Carpenter
. Of the 6 likely line up guys who have faced him, in 56 PAs, they have 2 HRs (werth, ALR), and are 17 for 52, with 1 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SH, 1 SF (.345 OBP, if I did it right), and .500 SLG. That's pretty good. Other bench players have not done much (Bernie, Tracy,