You don't think the Nats will hang on to the division? At this point it would be embarrassing to go in as a wild card.
I think the Braves will come close to winning out. They're playing good baseball, so they should demolish teams like the Mets, Pirates, and Marlins.
OTOH, the Nats are playing some of their worst baseball and going up against two good teams in historically tough match-ups.
Honestly, I think it's a toss-up, but I could easily see the Nats blowing the division and I'm willing to avatar bet anyone who's overconfident about it.