Author Topic: Is it too much to ask for this team to win a season against the Marlins?  (Read 1052 times)

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Online wpa2629

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Not true.  It would take losing a few series.   Assuming no sweeps, if we lose the series to the Mets and the Braves win the series against the Brewers (both certainly possible), the lead is down to 4.5.  If the Braves win the series against us, the lead is down to 3.5.  A 3.5 game lead is not a very big lead with two weeks left to play.

And again, I assumed no sweeps.  If sweeps come in, we could be in second place at the end of the Braves series and sweeps are not out of the question.  It's not out of the question for the Mets to sweep the Nationals (if the Nationals can lose the way they lost to Ricky Nolasco yesterday, they can lose to any pitcher) and the Braves to sweep the Brewers (despite the fact that the Brewers are playing fairly well now) and for the Braves to sweep the Nationals (primarily because of the desperation of the Braves and the lack thereof of the Nationals).

 :panic:    OMG THE HUMANITY




Online PC

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The Nats just went 8-3, that's outstanding. 

Are you seriously going to have a heart attack after every loss?  In the meantime, you're missing the ride. The Nats have the BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL. That's AMAZING. How many body parts would you have been willing to give up if someone told you at the beginning of the year that on September 10th, the Nats would have the best record in baseball? 

The Braves are chasing us - They've been chasing us since APRIL

What we're watching is completely awesome, try to enjoy it a little

In the last 11 games, the Braves are 7-4, also very good and the Braves didn't just get utterly and completely dominated by Ricky Nolasco.  Nolasco's ERA, against everyone else is 4.79 and we didn't get a hit through him until the 5th inning.

Ricky Nolasco is not a good pitcher with not particularly good stuff.  You can lose to these kinds of pitchers but you can't get dominated by them...twice in a row.  Yesterday's performance was disturbing in the depth and breadth of the futility.

Offline mimontero88

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In the last 11 games, the Braves are 7-4, also very good and the Braves didn't just get utterly and completely dominated by Ricky Nolasco.  Nolasco's ERA, against everyone else is 4.79 and we didn't get a hit through him until the 5th inning.

Ricky Nolasco is not a good pitcher with not particularly good stuff.  You can lose to these kinds of pitchers but you can't get dominated by them...twice in a row.  Yesterday's performance was disturbing in the depth and breadth of the futility.

Name me one team that has ever won a World Series and didn't have an equally disturbing loss.  Go.

Offline Obed_Marsh

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You can lose to these kinds of pitchers but you can't get dominated by them...twice in a row.

A loss is a loss. 8-3 and with a stinker or two is better than 7-4. More Wins = Better, particularly with this team putting the fish in the rear view mirror.

Online mitlen

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Name me one team that has ever won a World Series and didn't have an equally disturbing loss.  Go.

1960 Pirates had a lot of them, including in the World Series, and still won it all.    It's all good.

Offline mimontero88

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Goliath had David.  We have the Marlins.  Just how it goes.

Online Ray D

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  It's not out of the question for the Mets to sweep the Nationals

Right, it is quite possible. And, though there wasn't a "sense of urgency" yesterday, you can bet there will be a sense of urgency if that happens. And we either respond or we don't. If we do, we'll be ok. If we don't, then we won't.   But I'm betting we would respond in force, just as we did after the five-game losing streak that had everyone jumping off a cliff. 

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Quote
The importance of this week for the Nationals

Posted by James Wagner on September 10, 2012 at 7:00 am

The Washington Nationals began this past weekend’s three-game series against the Miami Marlins with a 7 1/2-game lead on the Atlanta Braves in the National League East standings. And after dropping two games — one narrowly, the recent one a whooping, and the Braves winning five straight — the Nationals’ lead dropped to 5 1/2 games.

This is no cause for alarm. They finished an 11-game homestand 8-3. Their lead is the second-largest margin of any division leader in baseball: the Cincinnati Reds hold a 8 1/2-game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals, and the San Francisco Giants hold a 5 1/2-game heads-up on the Los Angeles Dodgers. But the two losses add a tad more importance to the three-game series at the New York Mets beginning Monday.

While implausible given how well the Nationals have played the Mets all season, there’s less room for error against them now. Imagine this scenario: if the Braves sweep their upcoming opponent, the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Nationals lose the series to the Mets by dropping two games, then more significance is added to the Nationals-Braves series starting on Friday. Let’s say that happens, then the Nationals lead would shrink to 3 1/2 games to start a three-game series in Atlanta.

But, of course, this is just a possibility to consider. The Nationals have a firm grasp of the division and have handled the Mets this season, beating them 11 of 15 times and outscoring them 69-48, both indications of what may come. The Braves swept the Brewers earlier this season, outscoring them 19-13. If the Nationals play worse than their established low for the season, the Braves would have to go on a tear to finish tied.

The Nationals’ lead in the division is sizable but not comfortable for them given how well the Braves have played of late. And it shows how big of a win Saturday’s dramatic 7-6 walk-off win over the Marlins in the long rain delay actually was. Dropping the series final, 8-0, stung a little.

“We could have lost all three of these games,” Adam LaRoche said. “And [Saturday] turned into a big win for us to force extra innings there. Take it for what it is, move on, keep doing what we do.”

Added Kurt Suzuki: “I don’t think it’s ever easy to shrug a game off, especially when you’re in a pennant race. So this was definitely a tough one, but at the same time you got to go back on it tomorrow and get ready to go.”

In other words, the Nationals understand that this pennant race rests solely in their hands. They’re on a 99 win pace, hold the best record in baseball and have enough of a cushion to withstand even a mini tough stretch or a Braves run. The Nationals are well aware of where they stand and what remains.

“Yeah, we don’t need to watch what [the Braves] are doing,” LaRoche said. “… We’re not relying on them to meltdown. We’re relying on ourselves to continue to do what we’ve done all year. And if we do that, it won’t matter if those guys stay as hot as they are now. So, again, this isn’t a sit and wait for Atlanta to fall apart. I don’t think guys care what they do; when they lose it; pick up a game, great; but we need to get locked in and be focused going into October.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2012/09/10/the-importance-of-this-week-for-the-nationals/


Offline LostYudite

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Yeah, but it was 7.5 up on Friday.

And it was 5.0 a week before that.

Look - this is a pennant race.  It's a RACE - it's going to get tight at times.  I'll worry if we go into the Braves series at 3.5 or less.  Now that we got that bum Strasburg out of the rotation, we should be in good shape.  ;)

Offline LostYudite

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This is no cause for alarm.
This is no cause for alarm.
This is no cause for alarm.

 :roll:

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Keep Calm and Carry On  :uk:

Online PC

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This is no cause for alarm.
This is no cause for alarm.
This is no cause for alarm.

 :roll:

There's a cloud at the end of every silver lining.  :mg:


Online wpa2629

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In the last 11 games, the Braves are 7-4, also very good and the Braves didn't just get utterly and completely dominated by Ricky Nolasco.  Nolasco's ERA, against everyone else is 4.79 and we didn't get a hit through him until the 5th inning.

Ricky Nolasco is not a good pitcher with not particularly good stuff.  You can lose to these kinds of pitchers but you can't get dominated by them...twice in a row.  Yesterday's performance was disturbing in the depth and breadth of the futility.

Right, just like that 9 run melt down against the Braves was the beginning of the end for the Nats ... Oh wait

In 4 games, the Nats hung 31 runs on the desperate to make the playoffs Cardinals, and then hit 21 homeruns in a 5 game stretch ...

You're making way too much out of one game.

Offline OldChelsea

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[...]Look at the remaining schedule also, the Braves have an easier schedule than the Nationals.

Braves remaining schedule (all 3-match series, no doubleheaders):

10th-12th - Brewers away
14th-16th - Nationals home
17th-19th - Marlins away
21st-23rd - Phillies away
25th-27th - Marlins home
28th-30th - Mets home
1st-3rd - Pirates away

Offline Tyler Durden

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And it was 5.0 a week before that.

Look - this is a pennant race.  It's a RACE - it's going to get tight at times.  I'll worry if we go into the Braves series at 3.5 or less.  Now that we got that bum Strasburg out of the rotation, we should be in good shape.  ;)

I remember we fell into 2nd place a couple of times earlier this season and some people were convinced that we'd never see first place again.  I'm going to guess PC was one of those.

Yesterday was not fun, but it was just one game.

Online PC

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I remember we fell into 2nd place a couple of times earlier this season and some people were convinced that we'd never see first place again.  I'm going to guess PC was one of those.

Yesterday was not fun, but it was just one game.

Untrue.  I never thought, months ago, that if we dropped out of first, we'd never get back but it's much later now.  As a matter of fact, it's the Fierce Urgency of Now, now.

As I posted earlier in this thread, the Braves are in full out desperation mode.  Every game is the 7th game of the World Series for the Braves.  It's a terrible strategy, even if you somehow end up winning the division, you'll likely be so burned out that you'll lose in the first round but you will have won the division.

That's my ultimate concern.  The Braves are willing to burn themselves out to win the NL East and, from appearances, the Nationals don't appear to be willing to do so....and I made that argument entirely without using the words "Stephen Strasburg".


Offline Slateman

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Who cares? We can take every series left on the schedule. No biggie. No reason tks hit the panic monkey button yet. It's the Marlins, they always own us but suck against everyone else.

Online tomterp

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The urgency is that the Braves are playing like their hair is on fire.  They are in FULL desperation mode.  Long term, this is a terrible strategy but it's the perfect strategy for making up 7.5 games with about 3+ weeks to play.

I mentioned it in the GDT that Gonzalez used Kimbrel in a situation that most managers (especially Fredi Gonzalez) never use their closers.  In the middle of June, in a tie road game in the 9th, your closer waits in the bullpen until your team gets a lead and then he closes the game.  If the lead doesn't come, the closer doesn't play.  Davey Johnson is famous for this "strategy".  Kimbrel went in the 9th in a tie game, knowing full well that the last at-bat would be the Mets and another pitcher would have to close the game, assuming the Braves scored. 

As it turned out, it almost blew up in their faces because the Mets came close to scoring in the bottom of the 10th against Moylan after the Braves took the lead in the top of the 10th.

The Braves made up 2 games this weekend and they seem to be willing to do anything (ANYTHING!) to win this division.  That's the urgency.

Sound strategy by the Braves.  I've never liked the practice of only using your closer for save situations, it's a waste of a precious resource.  Use your best relievers for the highest leverage situations, period.  Who cares if they collect those little reward tokens? 

Online Minty Fresh

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Who cares? We can take every series left on the schedule. No biggie. No reason tks hit the panic monkey button yet. It's the Marlins, they always own us but suck against everyone else.

Relief pitchers?  They get paid for stats not situations.  Another reason that all stats are useless.   

:couch:

Online tomterp

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Relief pitchers?  They get paid for stats not situations.  Another reason that all stats are useless.   

:couch:

Minty, why'd you quote Slate?  He didn't even mention relievers in his post.

 :lol:

Online Minty Fresh

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Minty, why'd you quote Slate?  He didn't even mention relievers in his post.

 :lol:

Now I have to go and complain in the "Deleted Posts" thread.   

Offline Kevrock

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  It's not out of the question for the Mets to sweep the Nationals (if the Nationals can lose the way they lost to Ricky Nolasco yesterday, they can lose to any pitcher) and the Braves to sweep the Brewers

Your whole post is funny, but the opposite of what you post here is more likely.

Online PC

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Your whole post is funny, but the opposite of what you post here is more likely.

I don't know about more likely (Nationals sweeping the Mets is more likely) but, absolutely, the Brewers could sweep the Braves.  The Brewers have been playing well and are very tough at home.

...but the reverse sweeps are possible too.

Online wpa2629

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I don't know about more likely (Nationals sweeping the Mets is more likely) but, absolutely, the Brewers could sweep the Braves.  The Brewers have been playing well and are very tough at home.

...but the reverse sweeps are possible too.

Anything is "possible"

Try not to sweat it so much ...

Online Ray D

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I'm having difficulty sorting this out.  Which is more likely: Braves sweeping Brewers, or Brewers sweeping Braves?