Message #1122319

[tomterp]

Cubs shut down Samardzija

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18316

The Shark vs. Strasburg Shutdown
 
by John Perrotto, Baseball Prospectus
 
The ace of the Nationals' pitching staff got shut down for the season, and it was the most-debated topic in baseball since the American League adopted the designated hitter rule for the 1973 season. The Cubs shut down their No.1 starter and seemingly nobody noticed or cared.
 
Of course, the Nationals have the best record in the major leagues, while the Cubs have the second-worst mark. And Stephen Strasburg was the most-hyped college pitching prospect in history at San Diego State, while Jeff Samardzija was better known for catching touchdown passes as a wide receiver at Notre Dame.
 
Every angle of the Nationals' decision to end Strasburg's season at 28 starts and 159 1/3 innings in his first full season after undergoing Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery in September 2010 has been examined. Most baseball executives and scouts I've spoken with say they either would have let Strasburg keep pitching or set up his schedule at the beginning of the season so he could have pitched through October. However, general manager Mike Rizzo—with a lot of nudging from agent Scott Boras—made his decision and it is old news now, at least until the Nationals are eliminated from the postseason.
 
However, it is instructive to see what went into the Cubs' decision to shut down Samardzija, who transitioned from reliever to starter this season. Samardzija carried a heavily workload as a reliever in 2011, appearing in 75 games and pitching 88 innings. The Cubs also had the 27-year-old begin an aggressive throwing program a month before spring training opened in order to build up enough stamina to get through a full season—or close to it—as a member of the rotation.
 
There has been a sea change in how the Cubs make decisions this year with club president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer in their first season on the job. Epstein, of course, was famous for relying on statistical analysis to make decisions with the Red Sox and being the brains behind their Carmine computer system. Meanwhile, under former GM Jim Hendry, the Cubs relied more on gut instinct and scouting acumen than processing numbers.
 
In Samardzija's case, the Cubs used a little bit of statistical analysis and a little bit of scouting to figure out how long to let him pitch. Last Saturday, they decided to wrap his season up at 28 starts and 174 1/3 innings.
 
"Basically, it was common sense," Cubs manager Dale Sveum said. "We didn't have a magic number of innings in mind. We knew at some point we had to limit his innings, but we didn't have a hard limit on how many innings that would be. We kept an eye on him and watched how we was throwing. When it got to the point where he had almost doubled his innings from last year, it just made sense to shut him down."
 
Samardzija finished on a high note; he pitched his first career complete game, holding the Pirates to three runs—two earned—and four hits while striking out nine. He ended the season with a solid 3.60 FIP.
 
"I knew what I needed to do, and I knew I had a lot of question marks around myself coming into the year," Samardzija said. "I knew where I was going as a pitcher and the direction I was going, and wanted to keep improving and get that experience late in games. You really want the staff and everyone to know they can trust you and keep giving you the ball."
 
The Cubs believe he can be a key part of their future along with shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo.
 
"He's a guy we can definitely count on for next season, someone who would be in the mix to be the Opening Day starter depending on what our roster looks like," Sveum said. "He pitched very well and showed at times he can be dominant. I think he can develop into a No. 1 or a No. 2 starter."
 
However, one question remains. If the Cubs were in the Nationals' position, would they have shut down Samardzija on Labor Day weekend? "I don't know, I honestly can't answer that question," Sveum said. "I just hope we're in that situation some day."