Author Topic: Nationals @ Diamondbacks, Game 2  (Read 7664 times)

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Offline Sharp

  • Posts: 3583
Re: Nationals @ Diamondbacks, Game 2
« Reply #525: August 12, 2012, 12:38:41 AM »
After seeing another one run win, does anyone know "why" winning more than about 50% of your one run games is unsustainable?

To me, it would seem that great teams will win more one run games if they tend to be up two or three in the late innings than vice versa.
It's not.  Well, not totally, anyway.  Obviously a good team should win more one-run games than a bad team, and a team with really superb pitching (particularly bullpen pitching) should also be expected to win a higher percentage of one-run games.  That said, a really imbalanced record in one-run games that's not proportionate to your overall victory percentage is usually a sign of unsustainable luck, because one-run games can so easily go either way.  Given that the last time I checked Nats were leading the league in run differential, I wouldn't worry too much about it either way.