Author Topic: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats [but who gives gives a rat's ...]  (Read 9090 times)

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Offline lastobjective

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #275: August 22, 2012, 11:05:40 AM »
Ryan Z is probably the only irreplaceable guy in the lineup.

Chad Tracy seems to be fine at 3rd. Not the whiz kid that Zimm is but he's an OK backup.

Offline welch

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #276: August 22, 2012, 11:57:07 AM »
Chad Tracy seems to be fine at 3rd. Not the whiz kid that Zimm is but he's an OK backup.

I keep forgetting that Tracy can play 3B.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #277: August 22, 2012, 11:59:10 AM »
I keep forgetting that Tracy can play 3B.

If we're lucky to the level Chipper is at. As in, can't move... but if he's positioned correctly, he should be able to make the play.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #278: August 22, 2012, 12:07:35 PM »
If we're lucky to the level Chipper is at. As in, can't move... but if he's positioned correctly, he should be able to make the play.

Hey now, I saw that Spry Cat dive for a ground ball, pop to his feet and make the play to first - Goon Squad's not all about the stick my boi ...

I was impressed ;)

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #279: August 22, 2012, 12:10:23 PM »
I keep forgetting that Tracy can play 3B.

Lombo could play there for a spot start as well.

Offline PC

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #280: September 04, 2012, 07:59:03 AM »
Swydan's latest missive at espn (behind insider wall):

Quote
Washington Nationals
The Nationals, of course, have been a dangerous group all season, as they have almost completely transformed their squad since last year, when only their relievers' FIP ranked in the top 15. Better performance in 2012 was expected from the rotation, which featured heavy doses of Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis and John Lannan last season.

Certainly importing Edwin Jackson and Gio Gonzalez had the desired effect of improving the rotation, as did the return of Stephen Strasburg. However, just as important has been the defensive improvement from players who carried over from last year, particularly the infield trio of Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa.

Last season, Zimmerman, Desmond and Espinosa combined to post a minus-7.5 UZR. This season, that number has blossomed to 18.0 (as of Sunday). That's essentially a three-win improvement. Add in Bryce Harper, as well as more playing time for super-sub Stephen Lombardozzi, and Washington's only major defensive negative at the moment is Michael Morse. And while Morse isn't the stud at the dish that he was last year, he's still hitting enough to justify his place in the lineup -- as is everyone on the current roster outside of the catchers and Mark DeRosa. Washington won't be as lethal once Strasburg is shut down, but the Nats might be deep enough to make a long playoff run without him.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #281: September 04, 2012, 10:52:26 AM »
Nats Fans Believe ESPN Will Catch Paul Swydan and Laugh

Offline welch

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #282: September 04, 2012, 11:53:22 AM »
Swydan can paddle his canoe down the Potomac and try to make Newport News. Good luck to him.

The Nats infield fields about the same as it did last year: strong. If UZR has such a profound zig-zag, then the raw data that feeds UZR is probably flawed.

Further: how does adding up player stats amount to additional wins? And why ignore the hitting of Espi, Lombo, and Desmond?

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #283: September 04, 2012, 12:21:34 PM »
The Nats infield fields about the same as it did last year: strong. If UZR has such a profound zig-zag, then the raw data that feeds UZR is probably flawed.

Are batting numbers flawed because Desmond zig-zagged the past few years? Are they flawed because Pujols zig-zagged too?
Quote
Further: how does adding up player stats amount to additional wins? And why ignore the hitting of Espi, Lombo, and Desmond?
It adds to extra wins because in general 9-10 runs is worth an extra win. Therefore increasing by 30 runs defensively is worth about 3 wins.

Desmond has been awesome hitting. But Espinosa declined in hitting and Lombo is a mediocre below average hitter.


Offline PC

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #284: September 04, 2012, 12:27:56 PM »
But Espinosa declined in hitting and Lombo is a mediocre below average hitter.

Wrong on both counts.  Espinosa's hitting has actually improved over last year and Lombardozzi is an average to slightly above average hitter.  He doesn't hit for power but his ability to put the bat on the ball, ie hitting, is quite high.  For a "utility" player, he's well above average.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #285: September 04, 2012, 12:31:05 PM »
Wrong on both accounts.  Espinosa's hitting has actually improved over last year and Lombardozzi is an average to slightly above average hitter.  He doesn't hit for power but his ability to put the bat on the ball is quite high.

Espinosa's K's are up, BB's are down. His OBP, and Slugging% are lower. His wOBA is 5 points lower. His BABIP is way higher so he got luckier. At best, he is the same hitter as last year. His hitting is not the reason we improved this season.

Lombo is not a good hitter. .326 OBP fueled by his BA. He has no power. Overall his wRC+ is 88 which means he is lower 12% lower than the league average hitter.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #286: September 04, 2012, 12:36:50 PM »
What GMU said.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #287: September 04, 2012, 12:40:11 PM »
What PC said.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #288: September 04, 2012, 12:40:45 PM »
Wait?

What he'd say?

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #289: September 04, 2012, 12:43:26 PM »
Wait?

What he'd say?

That's what she said

Offline tomterp

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #290: September 04, 2012, 12:44:04 PM »
Wait?

What he'd say?

Not sure but there wasn't a single misspelling.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #291: September 04, 2012, 12:45:09 PM »
Woot!

Spelling Nazi is pleased :thumbs:

Offline PC

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #292: September 04, 2012, 12:45:49 PM »
Espinosa's K's are up, BB's are down. His OBP, and Slugging% are lower. His wOBA is 5 points lower. His BABIP is way higher so he got luckier. At best, he is the same hitter as last year. His hitting is not the reason we improved this season.

Lombo is not a good hitter. .326 OBP fueled by his BA. He has no power. Overall his wRC+ is 88 which means he is lower 12% lower than the league average hitter.

Again, on both counts, BATTING AVERAGE COUNTS especially when you refer to them as "hitters".  Hell, when you refer to "hitting", batting average count more than anything.  It's actually the only thing that counts for a "hitter".

A "hitter" doesn't "fuel" his OBP with his batting average.  A "hitter" fuels his OBP with walks, Dan Uggla, for example. Dan Uggla is a terrible hitter (ask any Braves fan) but he has a .340 OBP.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #293: September 04, 2012, 12:46:37 PM »
I really hope tom agrees again.

:rofl:

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #294: September 04, 2012, 12:48:30 PM »
Again, on both counts, BATTING AVERAGE COUNTS especially when you refer to them as "hitters".  Hell, when you refer to "hitting", batting average count more than anything.  It's actually the only thing that counts for a "hitter".

A "hitter" doesn't "fuel" his OBP with his batting average.  A "hitter" fuels his OBP with walks, Dan Uggla, for example.

If you want to count everything, then use wOBA. It weighs every batting event properly. Based on that, Espinosa is down from last year.


Guys can get a high OBP based on BA. For example Ichiro or Tony Gwynn.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #295: September 04, 2012, 12:51:01 PM »
I really hope tom agrees again.

:rofl:

Totally agree, PC's on fire today!

GMU observes that Lombo's OBP is fueled by his high average.  Outrageous!   

What's next, slugging fueled by an inordinately high home run rate?    :rofl:

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #296: September 04, 2012, 12:54:25 PM »
So, just to be sure, you agree the only way to judge a hitter is their AVG?

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #297: September 04, 2012, 12:57:05 PM »

Offline tomterp

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #298: September 04, 2012, 01:02:54 PM »
So, just to be sure, you agree the only way to judge a hitter is their AVG?

Nothing I've ever said since the inception of the board would lead you to that conclusion.

Offline welch

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #299: September 04, 2012, 01:11:14 PM »
I agree with PC.

- Espi is getting important hits this year, driving in runs or scoring runs when it counts. I hate strikeouts, just on principle, since runners do not advance, but the K's do not feel as damaging as they did last year. I suspect that Espi's hitting has improved since the All Star break.

- Lombo is hitting well -- average is good -- and he was even better when he played regularly

- My original point was about fielding. Hard to see a difference between this season and last season in the infield play. Why would UZR change so much?

- Swydan seems to have missed the difference between this year's hitting and last year's hitting. Desmond, Espi, Lombo compared to last year's Desmond/Espi/Cora/Hairston. OF in general: Werth/Ankiel/Gomes-Nix against 2012 Werth/Harper/Bernadina/Morse/Lombo/Moore. He seems to have spotted the improvement in the starters...hard to miss, when the Nats added Gio and Jackson, have had Zimmermann and Strassburg, and Detwiler has been improving.