Author Topic: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats [but who gives gives a rat's ...]  (Read 9434 times)

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Offline RL04

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #200: August 13, 2012, 04:03:34 PM »
It doesn't matter what athletes say.  "Full-court press"?  That term doesn't mean anything to me.


It doesn't mean much more than that jocks only know how to speak in clichés.

Quote
The Braves and Nationals meet next week in Washington, for three of their six remaining head-to-head games


This is it.  I think the NL East will mostly result in the outcome of the head-to-head games.




Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #201: August 16, 2012, 03:56:28 PM »
@ben_lindbergh: Atlanta is really good at baserunning. The Nats are really bad. Up @baseballpro (http://t.co/D8rM3cMZ) and @ESPN_MLB (http://t.co/XXbsdbNC)."

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #202: August 16, 2012, 04:03:19 PM »
@ben_lindbergh: Atlanta is really good at baserunning. The Nats are really bad. Up @baseballpro (http://t.co/D8rM3cMZ) and @ESPN_MLB (http://t.co/XXbsdbNC)."


Are they a worse baserunning team or a team that hits fewer balls to right field?

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #203: August 16, 2012, 04:08:13 PM »
Stole my thoughts.

Another interesting stat... Nats are by far and away the worst base running team in baseball according to the base running stats (which doesn't include SB/CS... and only focuses on taking extras bases on singles, doubles etc.)

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

Here's the definition of how it's calculated.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ultimate-base-running-ubr/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ultimate-base-running-primer/



Offline welch

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #204: August 16, 2012, 05:13:14 PM »
I see a need for a different base-running stat. Watching the Nats, you can see opposing fielders hurry their throws because:

- Bernie, Harper, somebody is running fast
- Need a DP against fast National runner
- Need to field a bunt cleanly
- Ball takes odd hop, say, high in the air, and fielder needs to be almost perfect against Harper, Bernie, the rest.

For one or several of those reasons, the fielder either makes an error, or fails to make a close play that they should have made, but are not given error. (Example...failed to turn DP because Nats runner has gone on hit&run or takes out pivot man).

I don't see that UBR counts those plays, but they are often game-changers.

Offline welch

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #205: August 16, 2012, 05:22:37 PM »
And, to Lindbergh's points, I watched the last two Nats/Braves games up close. The Braves seemed to fold under pressure. In the Lannan come-back game, and even more in the Detwiler walloping. I was sitting close to 1B during the Detwiler game, and watched a Nats player slam a ball into the dirt in from of home, with runner on probably 1B and 2B. Ball bounced high in the air, and I think P, 2B and 1B nearly collided trying to get it. They were slow, the ball slipped, and, even worse, I think somebody forgot to cover first.

We saw that in the SF series when SF pitcher grabbed a SF bunt but could not get a grip to throw to first. (Can't remember if the Nats won, but my sense is that I've seen opposing teams fumble a play like that far more often than the Nats do.)

For those old enough to remember the '78 WS, think of game 3 when Graig Nettles stretched three or four times to take hits away from the LAD. Or all the DP's that Dent and Brian Doyle (last minute replacement for Willie Randolph, who had pulled a muscle) made, leaping over the Dodgers at second, while the Dodgers complained that it was "hard" to turn a DP with so many people at Yankee Stadium yelling at them (Lopes or Russell...can't remember).

Winning teams make those plays.

Offline saltydad

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #206: August 19, 2012, 10:14:24 PM »
I rememer '78 with joy!.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #207: August 19, 2012, 10:52:36 PM »
I'm hoping for 2 of 3. A six-game lead would give them little hope. I mean, I'm REALLY hoping for a sweep, of course...but...

Offline PC

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #208: August 20, 2012, 08:11:02 AM »
Remember the "full court press edition" of 3 to Watch from last week?

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/19785664/3-to-watch:-the-'full-court-press'-edition

There's a new 3 to Watch this week and it seems so different from just a week ago.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/19831520/3-to-watch-the-biggest-series-braves-nats-in-79-years-edition

A week ago it was:

Quote
They began that 17-game stretch 4 1/2 games behind the Nationals. They ended it 4 1/2 games behind the Nationals, who had an eight-game winning streak snapped on Sunday afternoon against the Diamondbacks. And sure enough, when the Nationals finally lost, the Braves lost, too, Sunday night against the Mets, so they begin this week 4 1/2 games behind the Nats.

The Braves and Nationals meet next week in Washington, for three of their six remaining head-to-head games. The Braves lead into that series with seven home games against the Padres and Dodgers, while the Nationals play three games in San Francisco and three at home against the Mets.

The Braves would love to come to Washington with maybe two games separating the two teams atop the NL East.


This week it's:

Quote
And yet . . . this series really is more crucial for the Braves than it is for the Nats.

The Braves begin the series five games back, knowing that if they don't start closing that gap soon, the Nationals may never really feel any pressure.

The Braves know that they have gained a full game on the Nationals on just one of the first 19 days of August. They know that after Wednesday, they'll have just three head-to-head chances to make up ground, and they know that at this point it's hard to count on the Nationals losing too many games against anyone else.

Offline R-Zim#11

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #209: August 20, 2012, 12:53:37 PM »
Baserunning? Really? They're trailing by 5 games with 41 to play...and baserunning is going to make the difference? Is it just me or are people pining for the Braves to pass the Nats?

Quote
On Wednesday night, the Atlanta Braves shut down the Padres behind another strong start by deadline trade target Paul Maholm. Thanks to a 27-13 run since the start of July, Atlanta's record stands a season-high 19 games above .500.

While the Braves have nipped at the first-place Washington Nationals' heels -- at times this month, just two games have separated the National League East's top teams -- they haven't been able to close the gap completely. The Nats, which won their game Wednesday on the strength of six precious innings from Stephen Strasburg's dwindling supply, have matched them win for win.

...

But the real prize -- a first-place finish and a guaranteed ticket to the divisional round of the playoffs -- remains at stake. The Nats have the better pitching staff and defense, and both teams are evenly matched on offense. But the Braves do have a sizeable advantage in one often-overlooked area: baserunning.


What I find particularly funny is this reference:

Quote
Not since the 2009 Baltimore Orioles has a team finished a season with a BRR as low as the Nats' current number, and not since the 2004 Boston Red Sox has a team run as poorly and still made the playoffs.


Man...why does that 2004 Red Sox team ring a bell...I just can't put my finger on it...

Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8274476/mlb-atlanta-braves-superior-baserunning-help-catch-washington-nationals

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #210: August 20, 2012, 12:56:37 PM »
Baserunning? Really? They're trailing by 5 games with 41 to play...and baserunning is going to make the difference? Is it just me or are people pining for the Braves to pass the Nats?

What I find particularly funny is this reference:

Man...why does that 2004 Red Sox team ring a bell...I just can't put my finger on it...

Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8274476/mlb-atlanta-braves-superior-baserunning-help-catch-washington-nationals


The Nationals are one of the worst baserunning teams in the last 5+ years according to stats on Fangraphs. The little things do tend to add up.

Having said that, I think the Nats are the better team, and will continue to prove it this week.

Offline OldChelsea

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #211: August 20, 2012, 01:03:54 PM »
[...]Is it just me or are people pining for the Braves to pass the Nats?[...]

I'm sure the Lords of Baseball are - they don't want good baseball...they want ratings, and unfortunately the remnants of the Braves' SuperStationTBS-era fandom are still quite considerable. Besides, a lot of people want a nice send-off for Chipper Jones, the latter-day Ripken.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #212: August 20, 2012, 01:12:57 PM »
Is it just me or are people pining for the Braves to pass the Nats?


Just being a fan.

The media isn't really out to get the Nats. Just seems that way because we all see things through Nationals tinted glasses.

Offline welch

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #213: August 20, 2012, 01:33:29 PM »
The Nationals are one of the worst baserunning teams in the last 5+ years according to stats on Fangraphs. The little things do tend to add up.

Having said that, I think the Nats are the better team, and will continue to prove it this week.

I don't think the Fangraphs base-running stat really tells us if a team runs well. For instance, it counts taking an extra base, but I've often seen that bad defense lets a runner get the base.

Example, from '86 - '88 Strawberry...who could do many individual things well, but not always at the right time. Runner on second, single to RF. Strawberry fires perfect no-hop throw to Carter, who catches it belt high center of the plate...but the runner was already a step or three past home. Hitter takes second because Strawberry made the dazzling throw rather than hit the cut-off man. In the FG stat, that would show as a plus for the batter, when it was really Strawberry's mistake.

Similarly, because Strawberry was so disappointing in those days, he seemed to steal second at times when the Mets didn't need a steal...big lead late in the game. Wally Backman (and maybe the real Len Dykstra) were usually the guys who caused commotion by running aggressively.

The Fangraphs stat seems "unfinished" because it does not count fielding mistakes that are forced by hard running. My instinct says that Harper, Bernadina, Lombardozzi, Espinosa, and Desmond run hard enough that other teams don't field as well as they should. Might not show up as errors if it's a DP not made, or if the scorer is generous to the hitter.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #214: August 20, 2012, 01:46:39 PM »
Yeah, I'm never under the impression that we're on the ropes because our base running is not aggressive. It seems to me our runners are putting a lot of pressure on the other team all the time.

Now other teams stealing bases on the Nats? Yeah, that's a different story.

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #215: August 20, 2012, 01:48:11 PM »
I blame our pitchers. They get on base too oftern.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #216: August 20, 2012, 01:51:39 PM »
I blame our pitchers. They get on base too oftern.

That could certainly be playing a part.

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #217: August 20, 2012, 01:56:20 PM »
I blame our pitchers. They get on base too oftern.

Oftern? What freak is oftern? Stupid auto correct  :idiot:

Offline JMW IV

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #218: August 20, 2012, 01:57:03 PM »
Fact is, no one will believe that we are capable of winning the division and contending in the playoffs until we win the division and contend in the playoffs.

until then, everyone is waiting and expecting us to turn back into pumpkins.

thats what happens when you are a perennial loser with multiple 100-loss seasons, and then you suddenly get good.

no point in complaining about it.

Offline R-Zim#11

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #219: August 20, 2012, 02:04:57 PM »
Fact is, no one will believe that we are capable of winning the division and contending in the playoffs until we win the division and contend in the playoffs.

until then, everyone is waiting and expecting us to turn back into pumpkins.

thats what happens when you are a perennial loser with multiple 100-loss seasons, and then you suddenly get good.

no point in complaining about it.

Complaining, no. Well maybe make me feel a little more superior than I already do!

However, there is nothing wrong with pointing out flawed logic in the 3rd article now in the last 6 weeks ESPN has posted about another team being supposedly superior to the Nats (yet still trailing in the standings...)

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #220: August 20, 2012, 02:08:28 PM »
does anyone expect espn to write about how the nationals are the superior team and will maintain or grow their lead, so there is no real reason to watch or read about this race? ESPN will find away to write about races being alive right up until the leader clinches

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #221: August 20, 2012, 02:19:49 PM »
does anyone expect espn to write about how the nationals are the superior team and will maintain or grow their lead, so there is no real reason to watch or read about this race? ESPN will find away to write about races being alive right up until the leader clinches

And we all know it'll be the Phillies vs. Red Sox again this season.

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #222: August 20, 2012, 02:24:28 PM »
I'm not concerned about base running so much as we've had a few moments of concentration lapses that haven't proven costly yet.  Like Harper's ignoring of the cut-off man or Bernadina's base running gaffe in Houston.  That's the kind of thing that we can't have in October.  It's some of those little details that concern me.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #223: August 20, 2012, 02:27:33 PM »
I'm not concerned about base running so much as we've had a few moments of concentration lapses that haven't proven costly yet.  Like Harper's ignoring of the cut-off man or Bernadina's base running gaffe in Houston.  That's the kind of thing that we can't have in October.  It's some of those little details that concern me.

Holy Crap have we come a long way ...

Blows your mind, doesn't it?

Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #224: August 20, 2012, 02:28:23 PM »
Yes.