Author Topic: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats [but who gives gives a rat's ...]  (Read 9976 times)

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Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #125: August 12, 2012, 12:51:13 AM »
We've got the Braves psyched out.
And talent wise....Mcann over Flores/Suzuki is the ONLY position player where they ave an edge.

I'd say Bourn and Heyward have been better than Werth and Harper, as well.

Uggla usually is better than Espinosa... but couple his down year with Espinosa's defense and speed... and I give Danny the advantage.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #126: August 12, 2012, 01:03:12 AM »
Uggla usually is better than Espinosa... but couple his down year with Espinosa's defense and speed... and I give Danny the advantage.
Even with Uggla down year, he has a higher WAR than Espinosa. Don't forget that this is a down year for Espinosa's offense too. The Braves have the better positional players, but our advantage is in the starting rotation.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #127: August 12, 2012, 01:06:15 AM »
Heyward>Werth
Bourn is 10x better than Harper
Uggla>Espinosa
Prado>Morse

Even Chipper Jones has played better this year than Zimmerman.

I take Morse and Zim over Prado and Chip and I don't think twice about it. 

I think the Braves back end of the pen is stronger than ours, I like the middle of ours a bit better.  Honestly, I think the two teams are pretty even.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #128: August 12, 2012, 01:37:29 AM »
To me it breaks down as such:

Rotation - Nats hands down even without Stras.  I'd take Gio, JZimm, EJax and Det over everybody in the Braves rotation.

Bullpen - As a whole, the Nats I think put up more zeroes over time but the Braves have a much more consistent and dominant closer in Kimbrel.

1B - LaRoche has better D and a similar bat to Freddy.  Advantage ALR.
2B - Uggla hits bombs but little else and his defense is horrendous.  Danny is a K machine but his defense is GG caliber if Brandon Phillips didn't exist.  Slight advantage to the Nats I think.
3B - Zimmerman has a defensive edge over Chipper.  Chipper is an amazing hitter even at his age.  This one is a push.
SS - Desmond is having a career year both defensively and at bat.  Simmons is no slouch though.  Desmond by a bit.
C - McCann over whoever catches for us by a big margin.  Not even close.

RF - Jason Heyward over Werth.  Werth has too small a sample size to declare him a better hitter and Heyward has impeccable D unless he is watching Harper hit.  Braves.
CF - Bourn over Harper.  Harper is slumping just as he should be at 19.  It's easy to see that harper has a much better future than Bourn but Bourn has amazing D and makes up for his K's with a high average and some pop.
LF - Prado is slumping but can play LF very well.  Doesn't have the best arm since he does have an IF arm.  Morse has an IF arm as well and posts a .300 average which is close to what Prado is doing.  Morse edges him out on power and overall I think this is a push.

Benches are close.  Utility MI between Janish (or Jack Wilson) and Lombo has the advantage to Lombo because he isn't hitting under .230 and can field quite well as can the other guys.  Reed Johnson has an edge over Moore just because he has lots of experience coming off the bench and Moore is basically a starter playing on the bench as a rookie.  Bernadina provides decent hitting and good defense in the field and makes him a slightly better choice than Diaz.  Hinske and Chad Tracy are a push.  Both provide identically the same thing.  Backup C, well Ross is way better than Flores.

Nationals have - Rotation, overall Bullpen, 1B, 2B, SS, LF, and 2 out of 4 bench positions giving one bench position a push.
Braves have - 3B, C, RF, CF and 2 out of 4 bench positions.

That has the Nats with a slight advantage of 8 to 6 overall, but again the margins are slim here.  Aside from Catcher as someone else has stated, there aren't many spots that Nats are greatly worse than the Braves.  Same goes for the braves even though I feel that the Nats have by far the better rotation.

This comes down to the wire folks.  Going to be a tough stretch run for both teams and I honestly wouldn't be suprised if both make the playoffs and get knocked out to a hot team that is better rested.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #129: August 12, 2012, 02:02:26 AM »
I take Morse and Zim over Prado and Chip and I don't think twice about it. 

I think the Braves back end of the pen is stronger than ours, I like the middle of ours a bit better.  Honestly, I think the two teams are pretty even.

Right now, Chipper has a better hitting season by a decent margin.

Prado and Morse are having similar batting seasons but Prado has a huge lead defensively

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #130: August 12, 2012, 07:33:39 AM »
While I thought Slumpbuster was being pretty ridiculous, I think you are being a bit irrational as well. Then again, that just might be your point? I dunno.

He's a dope.  Heyward has been worse than Werth this year, Uggla is in no way better than Espinosa this year and Chipper Jones and Zimm are a push at best.  Bourn has been better than Harper so far this year and Morse would be on par with Prado if not for the injuries. 

I'd take our roster over the Braves any day as long as Strasburg remains at the top of the rotation.

Offline Evolution33

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #131: August 12, 2012, 08:01:57 AM »
I really don't know if you can use season stats to compare the Nats and Braves. Anyone that has watched this team knows they are a different line-up since Morse returned and Zim got his cortisone shot. I do think the Braves have a better constructed line-up because Bourn and Prado or much more pure 1 and 2 hitters than the Nationals have, but since Morse returned in June the Nationals have scored 4.81 runs a game. Combine that type of offense with the Nationals pitching and we have all seen the results. The Braves are an excellent team and very well built. The Braves would be in first in half the divisions in baseball. The Nationals are just very good, and it might be time to accept this fact. 

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #132: August 12, 2012, 08:35:00 AM »
fWAR and Defense Efficiency (Fangraphs/BP) rate the Nationals team defense above the Braves. 

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #133: August 12, 2012, 08:44:03 AM »
fWAR rates the Nats pitching staff as third best, Braves 20th
fWAR rates the Braves as the 3rd best offensive team, Nats 9th.


BP rates the Nats 2nd in pitching VORP, Braves 21
BP rates the Nats 5th in BVORP, Braves 11th (Batting runs above RP)


The stat guys don't seem to believe that the Braves have a huge advantage or any advantage at all. Play em is what I say.


Online Smithian

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #134: August 12, 2012, 09:00:01 AM »
fWAR, VORP, and BVORP are all some fancy schmancy words that I don't totally understand, but I'm glad to know the stats-y folks are pumped up as well.

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #135: August 12, 2012, 09:16:49 AM »
fWAR, VORP, and BVORP are all some fancy schmancy words that I don't totally understand, but I'm glad to know the stats-y folks are pumped up as well.

I won't vouch for any of them. I use them strictly as a way of bringing objectivity to the argument.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #136: August 12, 2012, 10:38:50 AM »
Simmonds is heads and shoulders above Desmond. Dude was the best SS in baseball until he was injured.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #137: August 12, 2012, 10:39:37 AM »
Catcher
Centerfield
Closer

Those are the only positions I would take over the Nats. Everyone else I'm keeping right where they are

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #138: August 12, 2012, 10:53:24 AM »
Simmonds is heads and shoulders above Desmond. Dude was the best SS in baseball until he was injured.

Babe Ruth was the best player before he died. Don't see either in the Braves line up today

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #139: August 12, 2012, 11:26:32 AM »
Right now, Chipper has a better hitting season by a decent margin.

Prado and Morse are having similar batting seasons but Prado has a huge lead defensively

If we're talking just this season I think I still take Zim.  Chipper's not playing consistently enough due to age and health to make up for the gap in offensive performance, which I don't think is that big to begin with.  If Chipper was playing every day, I might be able to go with you here.

I'll give you Prado's defense, but offensively, Morse was out half the year and got off to a slow start and has almost already caught Prado and in some cases passed him already in terms of production.  Power isn't a huge part of his offensive game.  Prado's a great guy to have on the team, but if I'm filling out a lineup, I'm putting in Morse before I put in Prado.

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #140: August 12, 2012, 11:41:44 AM »
Ian Desmond was the best Shortstop in baseball this year before he got hurt, by a wide margin.

I'm not sure what Simmons did that's so great, but it was in a small sample.

Offline deeznatz

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #141: August 12, 2012, 11:51:07 AM »
Simmonds is heads and shoulders above Desmond. Dude was the best SS in baseball until he was injured.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! You've got to be kidding me.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #142: August 12, 2012, 12:23:12 PM »
Babe Ruth was the best player before he died. Don't see either in the Braves line up today

Simmmons will be in a week or two.

Ian Desmond was the best Shortstop in baseball this year before he got hurt, by a wide margin.

I'm not sure what Simmons did that's so great, but it was in a small sample.

.296/.336/.452 and was the best defensive shortstop in baseball. By a lot. Oh and it was his rookie year. Dude was straight balling.

Simmons > Ian Desmond

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #143: August 12, 2012, 12:30:14 PM »
How are the Braves not on pace to win 100 games with so many great players?!  They should be a machine.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #144: August 12, 2012, 12:31:34 PM »
Ian Desmond was the best Shortstop in baseball this year before he got hurt, by a wide margin.

I'm not sure what Simmons did that's so great, but it was in a small sample.

Desmond's stats were a small sample size. He had two plus years of sucks in the majors and five plus years of suck in the minors and then one really good half year.

Just saying.

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #145: August 12, 2012, 12:56:22 PM »
Ian Desmond wOBA of .355 in 385 PA

Andrelton Simmons wOBA of .337 in 125 PA

Please point me in the direction of a defensive play Simmons makes that Desmond wouldn't have this year.  Here's one I want to see Simmons replicate http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22043169

The defensive difference has to have little tangible effect on outcomes.  Continue crapting on Desmond for prior years, though.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #146: August 12, 2012, 01:00:44 PM »
Ian Desmond wOBA of .355 in 385 PA

Andrelton Simmons wOBA of .337 in 125 PA

Please point me in the direction of a defensive play Simmons makes that Desmond wouldn't have this year.  The defensive difference has to have little tangible effect on outcomes.  Continue crapting on Desmond for prior years, though.

We could start with Simmons .98+ fielding percentage. Or you could just admit that your homer goggles are clouding your vision and realize that Simmons is a better defensive shortstop now than Desmond will ever be.

I would drown a puppy to trade Desmond for Simmons.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #147: August 12, 2012, 01:13:30 PM »
One number that I like to use when comparing teams' defense is defensive efficiency, which is basically 1-BABIP.  This tells you how well a team turns balls into play into outs.  Nats lead the majors in this at .724, the Braves are in the middle of the pack at .709. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1091208 This kind of takes out the debate over whether UZR or some other measure is accurate about individual players. 

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #148: August 12, 2012, 01:15:19 PM »
If Desmond gets an extra error a month, but hits an extra home run a month, I'm taking the home run every time.

I found the example I was looking for of a play Desmond doesn't make:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22364337&c_id=mlb

Wow.

Offline MorseTheHorse

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #149: August 12, 2012, 01:24:58 PM »
One number that I like to use when comparing teams' defense is defensive efficiency, which is basically 1-BABIP.  This tells you how well a team turns balls into play into outs.  Nats lead the majors in this at .724, the Braves are in the middle of the pack at .709. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1091208 This kind of takes out the debate over whether UZR or some other measure is accurate about individual players. 



This stat seems arguably a better measure of the quality of a teams pitchers than its defense.