Author Topic: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats [but who gives gives a rat's ...]  (Read 9140 times)

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Offline JMW IV

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #75: August 09, 2012, 10:00:07 AM »
And despite all that, the Nats have picked up a half game.

Doesn't matter what the Braves do as long as the Nats continue to win.



More Sanity.

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #76: August 09, 2012, 10:01:50 AM »
The Braves won 12-6 last evening. Hudson failed to last five innings and Venters,O'Flaherty and Kimbral all pitched an inning after the Braves had a 4 run lead.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #77: August 09, 2012, 10:02:30 AM »
The Strasburg thing is so overblown. I think will affect somewhere 4 or 5 starts. John Lannan has already won a couple big games for the Nats this season. Yes, he isn't Strasburg, but it isn't like we're just surrendering those games. End of the day I think Strasburg shut down affects one, maybe two, wins.

We currently have a 4 game lead on the Braves. 4 games is a HUGE deal right now.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #78: August 09, 2012, 10:05:04 AM »
The one thing that is not talked about enough I think is how consistent the Nats have been all year. They've had 1 losing "streak" of 5 games. Unlike the Reds and the Braves that needed long winning streaks to stay in the hunt, the Nats have been consistently winning series all year long. They don't need an insane hot stretch to stay in contention and they've done a good job so far of avoiding prolonged slumps.

I think that kind of consistency over 2/3 of the season so far is the best indicator for sustainability.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #79: August 09, 2012, 10:10:21 AM »
We currently have a 4 game lead on the Braves. 4 games is a HUGE deal right now.

Last year, the team had a .515 winning percentage in games Lannan started, this year stras's number is .682. Thats only a 16.7% difference, so maybe one game over a four game stretch

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #80: August 09, 2012, 10:13:39 AM »
Remember, the Braves have an actual loss to the Astros within the past week.  Not almost losses.  It's possible we could drop this last game to them tonight, but the Braves already did that...at home.  Anytime you can take the first three of a four gamer, on the road especially, you say thank you very much.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #81: August 09, 2012, 10:16:47 AM »
We currently have a 4 game lead on the Braves. 4 games is a HUGE deal right now.

then let's make sure we have at least a 5 game lead over them when he gets shut down.  The way the numbers are working out right now, he's going to go into the middle of September at least.  It's very likely we'll only need Lannan for 3 starts or fewer down the stretch.

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #82: August 09, 2012, 10:23:24 AM »
then let's make sure we have at least a 5 game lead over them when he gets shut down.  The way the numbers are working out right now, he's going to go into the middle of September at least.  It's very likely we'll only need Lannan for 3 starts or fewer down the stretch.

If Strasburg starts 6 more games (160IP), Lannan will get 4 starts. 

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #83: August 09, 2012, 10:26:38 AM »
If Strasburg starts 6 more games (160IP), Lannan will get 4 starts. 

He's averaging 5.2 innings per start right now.  30 gets him to 167 innings.  And since the number he's going to isn't exactly concrete at this point, I think it's more than possible he goes above 160.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #84: August 09, 2012, 10:29:35 AM »

We've needed extra innings and a ton of luck to beat the Astros. Oh, and we needed our pitcher to hit a 2 run homer. Sorry, but the Braves are playing outstanding baseball right now, even despite their mundane 3/4/5 starters. The Nats are squeaking out wins.

It is completely within the realm of possibility that the Braves will continue this trend, but the Nationals will start to falter. We're losing Strasburg at some point. Zimmermann will need to have his innings limited. The bullpen is already showing signs of fatigue.

The Nats play down to their opponents. Which wouldn't be bad except for we now have one of the easiest schedules in basesball.

I totally go the other way.  The Braves run differential is 31, the Nats is 2.  Despite this, the Braves have LOST ground on the Nats over that stretch.  We're in the midst of taking the Braves best punch and we're ADDING distance between us (admittedly due to some good luck and horrible 2009-esque Astros playing).  We're better than what we're playing right now and the Braves are not this good.  Over time, they'll cool off and we'll play better and then the RD will even out - and at that point, if they haven't gained ground we're just as likely to leave them further behind.

Put another way:  style points don't matter in terms of actual results.  At the end of the day, if we keep winning, we'll put them in a place where they need to go 6-0 in games against us to catch us.  How much you win by doesn't matter at all.

EDIT:  None of this is to say the author is wrong.  The Braves sure could catch the Nats.  4 games is big, but hardly unovercome-able.  That's why every game is going to be must-see from here on out.  We all wished for a team that was playing meaningful games in August, September, and beyond.  Well, we got it - this is what meaningful games feels like - being on a three game winning streak because of a circus-level botch, an amazing CF catch and a scrappy, gutsy, nailbiting CG from one of the best pitchers in the league.

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #85: August 09, 2012, 10:30:27 AM »
He's averaging 5.2 innings per start right now.  30 gets him to 167 innings.  And since the number he's going to isn't exactly concrete at this point, I think it's more than possible he goes above 160.

So do I. I used 160 because it was safe and anybody can see if he goes longer the effect it will have on Lannan.

Offline R-Zim#11

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #86: August 09, 2012, 10:31:58 AM »
The stat that matters most: Nats have one 8 of 12 over the Braves. That's the difference right there.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #87: August 09, 2012, 10:33:21 AM »
St. Louis Cardinals have a RD of +99.  Orioles have a RD of -47.  RD doesn't count for the standings.  W's and L's do.  But, if you want to use RD, over the WHOLE season, only the Cardinals and Yankees have a better RD than the Nats.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #88: August 09, 2012, 10:35:18 AM »
So do I. I used 160 because it was safe and anybody can see if he goes longer the effect it will have on Lannan.

Right.  I wouldn't be shocked if in September we see something like Stras for 5 and Lannan releives him to start getting Lannan on that schedule (if he's not already, I haven't followed him that closely).  We should have the flexibility to do that.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #89: August 09, 2012, 10:43:56 AM »
The one thing that is not talked about enough I think is how consistent the Nats have been all year. They've had 1 losing "streak" of 5 games. Unlike the Reds and the Braves that needed long winning streaks to stay in the hunt, the Nats have been consistently winning series all year long. They don't need an insane hot stretch to stay in contention and they've done a good job so far of avoiding prolonged slumps.

I think that kind of consistency over 2/3 of the season so far is the best indicator for sustainability.

I totally agree with this and it's one of the most under-rated things about this team.  There's been three or four times where my inherent pessimism has had me believing the wheels were about to come off, and every single time they've managed to right the ship, scratch out a win and get back on track.  The ability to avoid a 10- or 15-game funk has been huge.  Their worst stretch, I think was probably the Yankees series and immediately after - something like 3-7 over that 10 game stretch.  Even that, while bad is hardly crippling - I especially apprecaite that because it keeps me from  :hang: - rather have a team that consistently wins 2 out of 3, 3 out of 5 and 5 out of 7 than one that follows an 11 game winning streak with a 7 game losing streak.

Offline captkirk42

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #90: August 09, 2012, 10:44:31 AM »
The one thing that is not talked about enough I think is how consistent the Nats have been all year. They've had 1 losing "streak" of 5 games. Unlike the Reds and the Braves that needed long winning streaks to stay in the hunt, the Nats have been consistently winning series all year long. They don't need an insane hot stretch to stay in contention and they've done a good job so far of avoiding prolonged slumps.

I think that kind of consistency over 2/3 of the season so far is the best indicator for sustainability.

^I like that. Hits at least 2 nails on the head.

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #91: August 09, 2012, 10:59:10 AM »
Whatever. People expect a lot of things but they are in for one hell of a surprise if they are betting against this team. :w:

Offline captkirk42

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #92: August 09, 2012, 11:12:12 AM »
It is quite possible that Snotlata will catch up and possibly pass us in the standings. I honestly hope that does not happen, but realize it is a possibility.

As of right now the Nats are a bit better overall than the Braves we are 4 games ahead, both are 7 of the last 10 with the Nats on a 5 game win streak (Atlanta just 1 right now), Atlanta off of a 7 game win streak in late July. Atlanta seems to be on a win 2 then lose 1 streak pattern right now. Both teams are about the same in home wins but we are better on the road. The Nats also are still the best in division with wins. The worst losing streak the Nats have had this year was 4 games (when the Dodgers swept us), with a few 3 game losing streaks. Not bad. Not great, but not bad. And we have been swept on only what 3 times? Only one of those from a division rival. last half of our tough August is mostly division games.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #93: August 09, 2012, 11:34:01 AM »
Atlanta does have really great outfield defense, except for the time Harper made Heyward look like an idiot...

We seem to make Bourn look like an idiot quite often.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #94: August 09, 2012, 12:04:16 PM »
I hate the phrases "playing up" and "playing down" in baseball. There's parody.

Totally agree.  Look no further than the fine Monte Python game thread - parody at its best.



 :mg:

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #95: August 09, 2012, 12:14:17 PM »
Totally agree.  Look no further than the fine Monte Python game thread - parody at its best.



 :mg:

I knew the second I read that post from Smithian that you would have a response.

Offline Kentucky_National

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #96: August 09, 2012, 12:20:28 PM »
The one thing that is not talked about enough I think is how consistent the Nats have been all year. They've had 1 losing "streak" of 5 games. Unlike the Reds and the Braves that needed long winning streaks to stay in the hunt, the Nats have been consistently winning series all year long. They don't need an insane hot stretch to stay in contention and they've done a good job so far of avoiding prolonged slumps.

I think that kind of consistency over 2/3 of the season so far is the best indicator for sustainability.

Best post this thread has seen thus far.

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #97: August 09, 2012, 12:38:09 PM »
We need to do more than just win series at this point. The late season Braves aren't just taking 2/3, they are sweeping nearly everyone.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #98: August 09, 2012, 12:38:31 PM »
I knew the second I read that post from Smithian that you would have a response.

 :bow:

Offline tomterp

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #99: August 09, 2012, 12:39:37 PM »
We need to do more than just win series at this point. The late season Braves aren't just taking 2/3, they are sweeping nearly everyone.

And yet somehow, we've won 15 of 20 while the Braves have won 14 of their last 20.