Author Topic: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats [but who gives gives a rat's ...]  (Read 9996 times)

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Offline LostYudite

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #75: August 09, 2012, 10:29:35 AM »

We've needed extra innings and a ton of luck to beat the Astros. Oh, and we needed our pitcher to hit a 2 run homer. Sorry, but the Braves are playing outstanding baseball right now, even despite their mundane 3/4/5 starters. The Nats are squeaking out wins.

It is completely within the realm of possibility that the Braves will continue this trend, but the Nationals will start to falter. We're losing Strasburg at some point. Zimmermann will need to have his innings limited. The bullpen is already showing signs of fatigue.

The Nats play down to their opponents. Which wouldn't be bad except for we now have one of the easiest schedules in basesball.

I totally go the other way.  The Braves run differential is 31, the Nats is 2.  Despite this, the Braves have LOST ground on the Nats over that stretch.  We're in the midst of taking the Braves best punch and we're ADDING distance between us (admittedly due to some good luck and horrible 2009-esque Astros playing).  We're better than what we're playing right now and the Braves are not this good.  Over time, they'll cool off and we'll play better and then the RD will even out - and at that point, if they haven't gained ground we're just as likely to leave them further behind.

Put another way:  style points don't matter in terms of actual results.  At the end of the day, if we keep winning, we'll put them in a place where they need to go 6-0 in games against us to catch us.  How much you win by doesn't matter at all.

EDIT:  None of this is to say the author is wrong.  The Braves sure could catch the Nats.  4 games is big, but hardly unovercome-able.  That's why every game is going to be must-see from here on out.  We all wished for a team that was playing meaningful games in August, September, and beyond.  Well, we got it - this is what meaningful games feels like - being on a three game winning streak because of a circus-level botch, an amazing CF catch and a scrappy, gutsy, nailbiting CG from one of the best pitchers in the league.