Author Topic: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats [but who gives gives a rat's ...]  (Read 11285 times)

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Offline mimontero88

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #25: August 08, 2012, 11:49:06 PM »
Some people here have the thinest of skins when it comes to others not picking the Nats to win.

It's just an opinion. Who cares what he thinks about who will win. He doesn't change the outcomes of the game.

Yes but it's an opinion based on some pretty ludicrous statements that are borderline disrespectful to the Nationals organization.

Offline epic_phalanx

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #26: August 08, 2012, 11:49:31 PM »
In the article, Swyden just comes off as someone who follows baseball by spreadsheet. I get that some people are into that sort of thing, but he's not saying much besides simply citing statistics.

The author spends a lot of time writing about about the Braves' revamped pitching staff, but doesn't draw the parallel from that to the Nats' position player injuries... Zimmerman. Werth. Morse. Desmond. Ramos. Even Tracy and DeRosa. There hasn't been a single game this year that the Nats fielded their optimal offensive lineup. But with the return of Desmond, they will be very close.

Pass the SSS  :koolaid:


Offline GMUNat

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #27: August 08, 2012, 11:52:08 PM »
The Braves are a better team and will be better the rest of the season, but we still win the division because 4 games is pretty big. We probably win by 1-2 games.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #28: August 08, 2012, 11:54:39 PM »
Nats are 15-5 in their last 20 games.

And take a look at the games remaining, the overall win percentage for the rest of the competition is less than 500. The Nats schedule in June & July was brutal and they weathered it beautifully. We only play the braves 6 more times head to head. The rest is entirely up to the Nats.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/huntforoctober





Not only that, but look at the remaining schedule.  Braves have more on the road than at home.  Nats have more at home than on the road with 7 more on this trip.  After that, they'll have 27 remaining at home and only 17 on the road.  That SHOULD be a big advantage for the Nats.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #29: August 08, 2012, 11:56:48 PM »
The Braves are a better team and will be better the rest of the season, but we still win the division because 4 games is pretty big. We probably win by 1-2 games.

If we win the division by any margin, that makes us the better team.

Offline mmzznnxx

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #30: August 08, 2012, 11:56:49 PM »
Not only that, but look at the remaining schedule.  Braves have more on the road than at home.  Nats have more at home than on the road with 7 more on this trip.  After that, they'll have 27 remaining at home and only 17 on the road.  That SHOULD be a big advantage for the Nats.

Who knows if it is, Nats seem to have more tenacity on the road than at home these days.

Any way, I don't think the Braves will overtake the Nats, and I hope they don't, but I can't say I'd be surprised if they did either. They're a good team and only a few games back.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #31: August 08, 2012, 11:58:19 PM »
Look, anything can happen obviously. I just find some of the assertions in the article to be ridiculous.

Offline blue911

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #32: August 08, 2012, 11:59:40 PM »
Fredi has been in one playoff race and he botched it. I have no idea if he learned from it but judging by the comments on Braves message boards, it wouldn't appear so.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #33: August 09, 2012, 12:14:52 AM »
Fredi has been in one playoff race and he botched it. I have no idea if he learned from it but judging by the comments on Braves message boards, it wouldn't appear so.

True.  The Braves were firing on all cylinders going into September.  Jurrjens tailed off after the ASB, and Hanson went down with the injury but their replacements weren't that bad.  The pen was the best in the majors by a long shot and look what happened.  They fell short.  They collapsed and let the Philth go ahead and win the division.  They played sloppy ball and got pinned for it.  They stumbled into the playoffs in 2010 and although I think they have a better team now, I'm not so sure they have eclipsed the days of stumbling in or falling just short.

Offline tenken627

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #34: August 09, 2012, 12:42:42 AM »
What is interesting is that the Braves final series of the season is @Pittsburgh.  The Braves and Pirates could be playing 3 in a row, and then playing a 1 game playoff game against each other again right after. 


Offline Hogie

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #35: August 09, 2012, 12:47:24 AM »
They will. This team doesn't have what it takes to hold on.

Nice last 3 games against one of the worst teams ever!

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #36: August 09, 2012, 12:49:07 AM »
Your sarcasm/attempt to be an "edgy" poster isn't really working all that well.

Offline Hogie

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #37: August 09, 2012, 12:57:49 AM »
Well that's not a problem, since nobody is attempting to do anything.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #38: August 09, 2012, 01:00:06 AM »
Your sarcasm/attempt to be an "edgy" poster isn't really working all that well.

It's not an attempt.. That's Hogie's real life personality.

Offline welch

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #39: August 09, 2012, 01:19:24 AM »
Their infield defense is beyond awful. I find it hard to believe the guy who wrote that has actually watched them play. And no one in their right mind likes Atlanta's rotation more than Washington's.

I saw Atlanta's IF during the last series, and they reminded me of the difference between the Yankees infield compared to the Dodgers' infield in the '78 WS. Dodgers would not turn a DP, could not field under presure. Russel, their SS, complained, approximately, "How can you play when you have 55,000 people screaming for you to fail?" (Of course I thought that was what major leaguers did...).

But...why waste effort on some fangraphs guy's predictions? Doesn't a win count more than a prediction?

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #40: August 09, 2012, 01:49:39 AM »
Is he from Atlanta or something?  God, he sounds like us, violently twisting facts to support his opinion.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #41: August 09, 2012, 02:02:17 AM »
this guy drinks milk from a poisoned cow.

Offline saltydad

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #42: August 09, 2012, 02:18:44 AM »
My only worry is that we will play down to our competition. This has always been a problem for us, as in the Marlins weird superiority in the past over us. I also remember those years when we were sub .500, yet acted as spoilers at the very end of the season. I don't want the situation turned around on us.

Offline PC

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #43: August 09, 2012, 02:25:29 AM »
The Braves are a better team and will be better the rest of the season, but we still win the division because 4 games is pretty big. We probably win by 1-2 games.

The Braves rotation is substantially worse than the Nationals and that's still true without Strasburg.  Tim Hudson is their #1 pitcher.  Think about that.

Their offense is also far too left bat heavy.  They are almost helpless against left handed starters (see yesterday's game against Hamels or the game from a couple of weeks ago against JOHN LANNAN!)

They're not close to better than the Nationals.

...and Fredi Gonzalez is a terrible manager.

Offline NatsTheFats

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #44: August 09, 2012, 03:11:38 AM »
Not really. The wildcard round is not really the postseason and it burns your #1 pitcher.

Couldn't agree more. 

Offline aussienatsfan

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #45: August 09, 2012, 04:27:29 AM »
I read it the other day, meh it's an opinion, we all have one.

What's ironic is that a saber metrics nerd thinks sheets era is sustainable.

Offline OldChelsea

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #46: August 09, 2012, 07:33:56 AM »
Is he from Atlanta or something?  God, he sounds like us, violently twisting facts to support his opinion.


Per this Fangraphs entry, he's a Red Sox fan (originally from the Boston area so not one of the post-2004 bandwagoners) who also used to work for the Rockies: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-audio-who-the-hell-is-paul-swydan/

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #47: August 09, 2012, 07:50:03 AM »
"Innings muncher?" This guy is a butt muncher.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #48: August 09, 2012, 08:14:07 AM »
Can't say I disagree with him. Braves are playing pretty awesome baseball

Offline aussienatsfan

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Re: Paul Swydan Believes Braves Will Catch Nats
« Reply #49: August 09, 2012, 08:29:30 AM »
Can't say I disagree with him. Braves are playing pretty awesome baseball

So are the nats, I think the braves are an excellent team, but we aren't exactly scrubs. I am watching their games with a lot of intent and I'm aware they're right behind us, but it's ours to lose