Author Topic: Nats 2013 Projected Payroll, Needs, and Possible Solutions  (Read 2670 times)

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Offline mimontero88

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Same argument was made after last year that FIP/BABIP would lead to Detwiler falling off(I was one of his staunch defenders over the offseason). Just checked Fangraphs and his FIP has actually improved by .62 and his K/9 and BB/9 rates have both improved.

Maybe he drops off, but I think the guy at some point becomes better than his advanced number would indicate. ERA has stood the test of time for a reason.

I hate the idea that somehow sabermetrics make what actually happened irrelevant.  It's just simply wrong.  Take John Lannan who has significantly outperformed both his FIP and xFIP over the course of his career.  In a sample size of 764 IP John Lannan has a 3.99 ERA with a 4.60 FIP and 4.46 xFIP.  If FIP and xFIP were accurate these numbers should be much closer to equal after such a large sample size but they are way off.  The reason for this is that while FIP and xFIP are great indicators of future success in general they just simply can't account for all the on-field factors that numbers alone cannot reflect.  Numbers tell you a lot in baseball but they simply don't tell you the whole story.  At the end of the day you should always put more stock in what actually happened then what we think should have happened in theory.  What actually happened has the benefit of not relying on human error and the (inevitable) inaccuracies that sabermetrics present by putting everyone on an equal numerical scale when they obviously are not pitching the same way.  Sabermetrics are often great predictors but that is all they are.  At the end of the day a player's value is determined by what they ACTUALLY DO.  And Detwiler has been a stud.

Offline Smithian

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Sabermetrics are often great predictors but that is all they are.  At the end of the day a player's value is determined by what they ACTUALLY DO.  And Detwiler has been a stud.
:clap:

Offline mimontero88

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I wouldn't totally discount Lannan- if they really cared about the relationship, they would have traded him, and he's going to be arb eligible, so it's not like they have to sit down and mutually agree to a contract. Right now, he's making $5 million now, so maybe a little over $4 million (the maximum paycut is 20% and I can't imagine he would get close to that with almost no starts in the majors) would be the number next year. If they can find a better fifth starter for less great, otherwise I'd imagine they'd offer Lannan arbitration at which point, he can either retire or pitch for the nats next year.
It's a slippery slope when you start disregarding what a player wants completely.  Lannan would be traded if the yield for him was right not because we want to get rid of Lannan.  Having him as a 6th starter is great.  We would get rid of him for the right value because he asked for it and if you get a reputation of blatantly disregarding the desires of players who have done a lot for your franchise you lose attractiveness to potential free agents.

Offline Tyler Durden

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I would bet there will be another pitcher who kind of falls through the cracks like Jackson did last year.  The Nats will offer an attractive place to pitch on a winning team with several other good pitchers.

I like the idea of trading Morse plus something for Span.  It seems to me that Tyler Moore will offer most if not all of what Morse offers - good hitting but kind of a free swinger and weak fielding at LF and 1B.  I'm not sure the Twins would go for it unless we threw in something more in the way of prospects.  Maybe Rosenbaum or Sammy Solis.  We could throw in HRod since the Twins could offer a more low pressure environment where he could not worry about closing games on a winning team and HRod might actually do well.

Online houston-nat

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I'd imagine they'd offer Lannan arbitration at which point, he can either retire or pitch for the nats next year.
Why would Lannan retire?

Online HalfSmokes

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if you get a reputation of blatantly disregarding the desires of players who have done a lot for your franchise you lose attractiveness to potential free agents.

As far as lannan goes, that ship has long since sailed

Online HalfSmokes

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Why would Lannan retire?
That's the point, he can hate the front office all he wants, but if he wants to play baseball, he'd have to accept

Offline lastobjective

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Nice thread! I was wondering about these things and mim summed up everything well, thanks.

But why trade Morse? He is the only one in our starting lineup above .300 right now. Would we (want) to be trading him for another bat or an infielder? Just too many outfield?

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Nice thread! I was wondering about these things and mim summed up everything well, thanks.

But why trade Morse? He is the only one in our starting lineup above .300 right now. Would we (want) to be trading him for another bat or an infielder? Just too many outfield?

Well, the most likely reason is you don't think Morse is a good bet long term after his current deal is up.

When a guy strikes out a lot, but doesn't walk... that usually catches up to most hitters in their early 30's... they're kind of like a ticking time bomb. Some guys last to late 30's, some guys fizzle out quick.

Offline lastobjective

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Well, the most likely reason is you don't think Morse is a good bet long term after his current deal is up.

When a guy strikes out a lot, but doesn't walk... that usually catches up to most hitters in their early 30's... they're kind of like a ticking time bomb. Some guys last to late 40's, some guys fizzle out quick.
Makes sense- and thankfully we have 3 rookies in OF that I know of (Harper, Moore and Brown) who seem to AT LEAST be capable in that position. Out with the old, in with the new, huh?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Quote
At the end of the day a player's value is determined by what they ACTUALLY DO.  And Detwiler has been a stud.
no doubt about it, but building a team is not about what they did, it is about what they WILL DO.  You make a mistake paying for past good performance if it is not likely they will repeat it.  With Detwiler, I think it is likely he will be a mid 3 ERA pitcher, based in large part on his peripherals.  I have more confidence that, as long as he has an improving K and BB rate and gets a ton of groundballs, he'll be a very good pitcher.  That's exactly what his 3.5 FIP says.

But you have to be one of the elite pitchers in the game, better than most hall of famers or likely hall of famers, to expect Detwiler will repeat a low 3 era the rest of his career.  Among Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, Schilling, Johnson, Clemens, Brown, Mussina, only Clemens and Maddux came close to that.  Det has 30 starts or so since his call up last year.  for now, I'd predict Det's ERA more off of defense independent measures than ERA unless you can come up with an explanation for why he beats his FIP or he shows a pattern over several full seasons.

Offline blue911

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Since Bambi is under team control the need to make absolute prognostication confuses me. They aren't going to replace him so whether he slots as a 4 or 5 is immaterial. What you want to know is what they plan on doing about Jackson.

Offline Hogie

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I need a big move. I just need one. I view the next 3-4 years as the sweet spot window before the team has to make some really difficult payroll decisions. Might as well use that window and make a mega move.

I'm in love with Denard Span but I'm not sure he's attainable at a reasonable price. I also don't love the idea of replacing LaRoche's big bat with Span's almost zero power. But Span would be locked in for only 2 years, with a team option for the third year, so if Goodwin is as good as we hope, he won't be blocked. If you make a move like Bourn for 5 years, every single OF spot is spoken for until 2018.

Or we could just shock the world and go get Josh Hamilton for 4/80 or something!  :$$$:

Online UMDNats

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I wouldn't trade Goodwin. In fact, I'd trade Rendon before I moved Goodwin.

I think he's going to be special.

Agreed.

Dat discipline

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Josh hamilton nages

Offline Hogie

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Espinosa
Harper
Zimmerman
Hamilton
Morse
Werth
Desmond
Ramos
Pitcher

Online TylerDC

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Love the post, just curious to why you didn't touch on our FA's very much. (LaRoche/Jackson) I think one of them may return.

Online tomterp

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Josh hamilton nages

Is anybody concerned with Hamilton's offensive struggles recently?

Since July 1 - .183/.241/.337   ops .578

His June wasn't so hot either. 

Offline Evolution33

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I like the Nats 1B/OF problem this off-season. Worst case scenario they have Morse/Moore at left and first.

Online houston-nat

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Is anybody concerned with Hamilton's offensive struggles recently?

Since July 1 - .183/.241/.337   ops .578

His June wasn't so hot either. 

Very concerned. Josh Hamilton is the most swing-happy players in the bigs; I think he swings at 45% of pitches outside the zone or something insane like that. When he hits the ball, he destroys it; when he misses, he looks like a doofus. In April and May he destroyed it; in June and July he looked like a doofus.

Online HalfSmokes

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Is anybody concerned with Hamilton's offensive struggles recently?

Since July 1 - .183/.241/.337   ops .578

His June wasn't so hot either. 

I'm not concerned, but I'm not a Hamilton or a rangers fan

Online tomterp

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I'm not concerned, but I'm not a Hamilton or a rangers fan

Maybe concerned is the wrong word - do you think it's indicative of an unfavorable trend?

I have no idea, just putting it out there that his offensive game appears to be in collapse at the moment.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Can't find it on my phone... But Fangraphs did a write up on Hamilton swinging at balls out of the zone. Basically predicting his downfall if he didn't change his approach.

Maybe the struggles recently will help refine it.

Online HalfSmokes

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with Hamilton there are so many red flags, it's just one more

Offline GMUNat

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Very concerned. Josh Hamilton is the most swing-happy players in the bigs; I think he swings at 45% of pitches outside the zone or something insane like that. When he hits the ball, he destroys it; when he misses, he looks like a doofus. In April and May he destroyed it; in June and July he looked like a doofus.

He does lead baseball in out of strikezone swing% at 46.3% (league average is 30.4%). The other guys with 40%+ out of strike zone swing% are Vicideo, Soriano, Adam Jones, Delmon Young. Franceour, Pierzynski, and Castro. Espinosa is next up with 39.6% rate.

Even crazier, here is the contact rate on out of strike zone pitches. This is the bottom of baseball:

1. Dunn 47.7%
2. Weeks 49.1%
3. Uggla 52.9%
4. Hamilton 53.3%
5. Pena 53.4%
6. CarGo 53.5%
7. Stubbs 53.8%
8. Espinosa 54.4%

So Hamilton is the worst at swinging at bad pitches one of the worst at contacting them plus he is 3rd worse in baseball in contact rate for pitches in the strikezone. Hamilton swings at the highest percentage of pitches in baseball and has the worst overall contact rate when he does swing. Yet despite all of that he has a respectable 24 K% and 9 BB%. Its because he gets the fewest pitches in the strikezone by far. Only 34.5% of his pitches are in the strikezone and he swings at 60% of pitches he sees. You do the math.