Author Topic: Nats 2013 Projected Payroll, Needs, and Possible Solutions  (Read 2783 times)

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Offline mimontero88

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Our payroll on Opening Day this year was $92,534,929 and according to what Mark Lerner has said he is willing to spend that gives us room to work with.  To start next year for contracts already on the books:

2013 PAYROLL:
Jayson Werth: $16 million
Ryan Zimmerman: $14 million
Kurt Suzuki: ~$5 million (guessing the A's picked up about $1.5 mil of salary for next season)
Stephen Strasburg: $3 million
Michael Morse: $6.75 million
Gio Gonzalez: $6.25 million
Sean Burnett: $3.5 million (would be shocked if this option weren't picked up)
Jordan Zimmermann: $5.5 million (estimated arbitration value is a bit low for lack of wins but this could be higher especially if extended)
Yunesky Maya: $2 million
Anthony Rendon: $1.8 million
Bryce Harper: $2 million (includes prorated signing bonus)
Tyler Clippard: $4.35 million (saves could greatly increase Tyler's salary at arbitration)
Matt Purke: $1.04 million
Ian Desmond: $1.8 million (Desmond is hard to project with a lot of factors in arb, this number could either be way high or way low)
Danny Espinosa: ~$650,000
Drew Storen : $850,000 (missing most of the year really hurt his earning potential at arb)
Wilson Ramos: ~$500,000
Roger Bernadina: ~750,000 (best arb guess)
Henry Rodriguez: $450,000
Ross Detwiler: $2.1 million (could see a similar boost in salary to Jordan Zimmermann's last year with similar performance with likely more IP)
Craig Stammen: $800,000 (long relievers don't get any love at arbitration, he'll frankly be lucky to get this even with a 2.40 ERA and lots of IP)
Steve Lombardozzi: $500,000
Chris Marrero: $450,000
Ryan Mattheus: $500,000
Tyler Moore: $400,000

Total After Arbitration:  $80.44 million

Projected non-tenders:  John Lannan, Jesus Flores, Tom Gorzelanny

The non-tender of Lannan is pretty obvious so I won't explain that.  Jesus Flores gets non-tendered because with Suzuki and Ramos on for next year and Solano basically proving that he is major-league ready there is no room for him in the organization.  Tom Gorzelanny gets non-tendered because despite the fact that he has been a solid long reliever this year he is being paid way too much ($3 million in 2012 with arbitration raise) to justify paying him for his role.  Craig Stammen is already a superb long reliever and the Nats have plenty of blocked pitching talent in the minors that could become long relievers the way Ross Detwiler and Gorzelanny did last year and Stammen has this year.

So with $80.44 million tied up in major league contracts before extensions or free agent signings but after (projected) arbitration this is what we have under contract for next year.

Rotation:
Stephen Strasburg
Gio Gonzalez
Jordan Zimmermann
Ross Detwiler

Bullpen:
Tyler Clippard
Sean Burnett
Drew Storen
Ryan Mattheus
Craig Stammen
Henry Rodriguez (should be non-tendered but probably won't be)

Infield:
Michael Morse
Tyler Moore
Danny Espinosa
Ian Desmond
Steve Lombardozzi
Ryan Zimmerman

Outfield:
Jayson Werth
Bryce Harper
Roger Bernadina
Corey Brown (not officially but I think this is a safe assumption)

Catchers:
Kurt Suzuki
Wilson Ramos

So with all that being said, as of right now we would be paying for my projected lineup of:

1. 2B Stephen Lombardozzi (vs. RHP)/Danny Espinosa (vs. LHP)
2. RF Jayson Werth
3. 3B Ryan Zimmerman
4. LF Michael Morse
5. CF Bryce Harper
6. SS Ian Desmond
7. 1B Tyler Moore
8. C Kurt Suzuki
9. Starting Pitcher

NEEDS FOR UPGRADE:
Leadoff hitter/CF:  Nationals leadoff hitters are batting .257/.299/.405 this season.  What is the opposite of getting it done?
Possible Solutions:  Free agents include Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera, and B.J. Upton while Denard Span, Dexter Fowler, and Peter Bourjos could be obtainable in trades.  Internally Corey Brown appears as though he could be ready now with Brian Goodwin possibly targeting an arrival in 2014.  The Nationals would likely do best to target Denard Span in a trade as he is young and would be under team control through 2014.  The Nationals could offer a package centered around Corey Brown or Brian Goodwin with the hope that the other would be ready to take over center field in 2015.  This would appeal to a Twins team that is in desperate need of a rebuild and doesn't project to be competitive until Span would be in his thirties.

Middle-of-the-Order LHB:  There is a good chance Bryce Harper is the solution to this.  That is why I have him in the middle of the order instead of batting second.  If not, the Nats need some serious help here.
Possible Solutions:  Picking up Adam LaRoche's $10 million option for 2014 is a possibility (if LaRoche would agree to it) and could be the best option if the Nats think he can come anywhere close to duplicating his 2012 performance in 2013.  Even if LaRoche doesn't if he can give you a hometown discount he would still be worth a 2 year deal given that Harper hasn't proved anything and there are just no other options here.  This would keep the outfield as Morse, Harper, and Werth for another year and give Harper a year to prove that he can be the solution in the middle of the order.  Unlike last season, there is no Prince Fielder to be had.  Carlos Pena would provide a cheaper option on the free agent market but the production would reflect that.  At the end of the day the Nationals (unless a good trade target becomes available) will likely have to choose between picking up LaRoche's option or putting their faith in Harper to truly develop at 20 years old as Mike Trout did.

Starting Pitcher:  Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, and Detwiler make up a very admirable 1-4 but the Nationals need a #5 and some organizational depth.  In the organization right now the depth after these guys under contract for next year would be Craig Stammen and Yunesky Maya.  The Nats don't only need the 5th starter but they also need some organizational depth such as what John Lannan has provided this year.
Possible Solutions:  Craig Stammen could actually be a solution here as he has a lot of good qualities you want from a starter with 8.6 K/9 and FIP numbers that indicates bad ERAs as a starter were due more to luck than bad pitching.  However his walk rate is concerning and he has a very consistent track record of better performance out of the bullpen.  Zach Duke is another internal option who has had a lot of success at AAA going 11-5 with a 3.78 ERA in 128.2 IP.  His 1.438 WHIP is concerning but he provides at least a possibility to be a solid #5 starter.  Re-signing Edwin Jackson is a possibility as well if the Nationals feel he can be the long-term number 5.  Free agent options that could appeal to the Nats would be Zack Greinke, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Anibal Sanchez, and Joe Saunders (as a decent innings eater).  There are plenty of potential trade targets in Matt Garza, James Shields, Cliff Lee, and more.  The point here is while the Nationals are bare in terms of what they have under contract for next season there are too many solutions out there for this to realistically be a point of concern.

Centerfielder:  The Nats have no shortage of organizational prospects that may be able to man this position with Corey Brown, Eury Perez, Brian Goodwin, and first time arbitration eligible Roger Bernadina.  However, the Nats are too good to be relying on prospects at this position and need to address it at least on a one-year basis.
Possible Solutions:  Same as leadoff hitter.

WHAT SHOULD THE NATS DO?:
Realistically the Nats should probably pick up Adam LaRoche's option (or negotiate a 2 year contract) and then dangle Michael Morse along with some of the depth they have at center field to try to trade for Denard Span.  The Twins would probably prefer a younger center fielder who projects to peak when they would be competitive in two to three years.  As far as goes starting pitcher, there are plenty of good solutions out there many of which could be considered the right move as long as doing nothing isn't the choice.  Assuming the Nats pick up LaRoche's option and don't overspend for what would amount to their #5 pitcher they would have a lot of room under payroll to extend players like Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, and Ian Desmond plus take care of Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper down the line.

Offline Smithian

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Good, thorough post. Although some will say "Focus on this year, wait until offseason!" I find the subject fun to discuss and will chime in with my opinion in a bit.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Our payroll on Opening Day this year was $92,534,929 and according to what Mark Lerner has said he is willing to spend that gives us room to work with.  To start next year for contracts already on the books:

2013 PAYROLL:
Jayson Werth: $16 million
Ryan Zimmerman: $14 million
Kurt Suzuki: ~$5 million (guessing the A's picked up about $1.5 mil of salary for next season)
Stephen Strasburg: $3 million
Michael Morse: $6.75 million
Gio Gonzalez: $6.25 million
Sean Burnett: $3.5 million (would be shocked if this option weren't picked up)
Jordan Zimmermann: $5.5 million (estimated arbitration value is a bit low for lack of wins but this could be higher especially if extended)
Yunesky Maya: $2 million
Anthony Rendon: $1.8 million
Bryce Harper: $2 million (includes prorated signing bonus)
Tyler Clippard: $4.35 million (saves could greatly increase Tyler's salary at arbitration)
Matt Purke: $1.04 million
Ian Desmond: $1.8 million (Desmond is hard to project with a lot of factors in arb, this number could either be way high or way low)
Danny Espinosa: ~$650,000
Drew Storen : $850,000 (missing most of the year really hurt his earning potential at arb)
Wilson Ramos: ~$500,000
Roger Bernadina: ~750,000 (best arb guess)
Henry Rodriguez: $450,000
Ross Detwiler: $2.1 million (could see a similar boost in salary to Jordan Zimmermann's last year with similar performance with likely more IP)
Craig Stammen: $800,000 (long relievers don't get any love at arbitration, he'll frankly be lucky to get this even with a 2.40 ERA and lots of IP)
Steve Lombardozzi: $500,000
Chris Marrero: $450,000
Ryan Mattheus: $500,000
Tyler Moore: $400,000

Total After Arbitration:  $80.44 million

Projected non-tenders:  John Lannan, Jesus Flores, Tom Gorzelanny

The non-tender of Lannan is pretty obvious so I won't explain that.  Jesus Flores gets non-tendered because with Suzuki and Ramos on for next year and Solano basically proving that he is major-league ready there is no room for him in the organization.  Tom Gorzelanny gets non-tendered because despite the fact that he has been a solid long reliever this year he is being paid way too much ($3 million in 2012 with arbitration raise) to justify paying him for his role.  Craig Stammen is already a superb long reliever and the Nats have plenty of blocked pitching talent in the minors that could become long relievers the way Ross Detwiler and Gorzelanny did last year and Stammen has this year.

So with $80.44 million tied up in major league contracts before extensions or free agent signings but after (projected) arbitration this is what we have under contract for next year.

Rotation:
Stephen Strasburg
Gio Gonzalez
Jordan Zimmermann
Ross Detwiler

Bullpen:
Tyler Clippard
Sean Burnett
Drew Storen
Ryan Mattheus
Craig Stammen
Henry Rodriguez (should be non-tendered but probably won't be)

Infield:
Michael Morse
Tyler Moore
Danny Espinosa
Ian Desmond
Steve Lombardozzi
Ryan Zimmerman

Outfield:
Jayson Werth
Bryce Harper
Roger Bernadina
Corey Brown (not officially but I think this is a safe assumption)

Catchers:
Kurt Suzuki
Wilson Ramos

So with all that being said, as of right now we would be paying for my projected lineup of:

1. 2B Stephen Lombardozzi (vs. RHP)/Danny Espinosa (vs. LHP)
2. RF Jayson Werth
3. 3B Ryan Zimmerman
4. LF Michael Morse
5. CF Bryce Harper
6. SS Ian Desmond
7. 1B Tyler Moore
8. C Kurt Suzuki
9. Starting Pitcher

NEEDS FOR UPGRADE:
Leadoff hitter/CF:  Nationals leadoff hitters are batting .257/.299/.405 this season.  What is the opposite of getting it done?
Possible Solutions:  Free agents include Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera, and B.J. Upton while Denard Span, Dexter Fowler, and Peter Bourjos could be obtainable in trades.  Internally Corey Brown appears as though he could be ready now with Brian Goodwin possibly targeting an arrival in 2014.  The Nationals would likely do best to target Denard Span in a trade as he is young and would be under team control through 2014.  The Nationals could offer a package centered around Corey Brown or Brian Goodwin with the hope that the other would be ready to take over center field in 2015.  This would appeal to a Twins team that is in desperate need of a rebuild and doesn't project to be competitive until Span would be in his thirties.

Middle-of-the-Order LHB:  There is a good chance Bryce Harper is the solution to this.  That is why I have him in the middle of the order instead of batting second.  If not, the Nats need some serious help here.
Possible Solutions:  Picking up Adam LaRoche's $10 million option for 2014 is a possibility and could be the best option if the Nats think he can come anywhere close to duplicating his 2012 performance in 2013.  This would keep the outfield as Morse, Harper, and Werth for another year and give Harper a year to prove that he can be the solution in the middle of the order.  Unlike last season, there is no Prince Fielder to be had.  Carlos Pena would provide a cheaper option on the free agent market but the production would reflect that.  At the end of the day the Nationals (unless a good trade target becomes available) will likely have to choose between picking up LaRoche's option or putting their faith in Harper to truly develop at 20 years old as Mike Trout did.

Starting Pitcher:  Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, and Detwiler make up a very admirable 1-4 but the Nationals need a #5 and some organizational depth.  In the organization right now the depth after these guys under contract for next year would be Craig Stammen and Yunesky Maya.  The Nats don't only need the 5th starter but they also need some organizational depth such as what John Lannan has provided this year.
Possible Solutions:  Craig Stammen could actually be a solution here as he has a lot of good qualities you want from a starter with 8.6 K/9 and FIP numbers that indicates bad ERAs as a starter were due more to luck than bad pitching.  However his walk rate is concerning and he has a very consistent track record of better performance out of the bullpen.  Zach Duke is another internal option who has had a lot of success at AAA going 11-5 with a 3.78 ERA in 128.2 IP.  His 1.438 WHIP is concerning but he provides at least a possibility to be a solid #5 starter.  Re-signing Edwin Jackson is a possibility as well if the Nationals feel he can be the long-term number 5.  Free agent options that could appeal to the Nats would be Zack Greinke, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Anibal Sanchez, and Joe Saunders (as a decent innings eater).  There are plenty of potential trade targets in Matt Garza, James Shields, Cliff Lee, and more.  The point here is while the Nationals are bare in terms of what they have under contract for next season there are too many solutions out there for this to realistically be a point of concern.

Centerfielder:  The Nats have no shortage of organizational prospects that may be able to man this position with Corey Brown, Eury Perez, Brian Goodwin, and first time arbitration eligible Roger Bernadina.  However, the Nats are too good to be relying on prospects at this position and need to address it at least on a one-year basis.
Possible Solutions:  Same as leadoff hitter.

WHAT SHOULD THE NATS DO?:
Realistically the Nats should probably pick up Adam LaRoche's option and then dangle Michael Morse along with some of the depth they have at center field to try to trade for Denard Span.  The Twins would probably prefer a younger center fielder who projects to peak when they would be competitive in two to three years.  As far as goes starting pitcher, there are plenty of good solutions out there many of which could be considered the right move as long as doing nothing isn't the choice.  Assuming the Nats pick up LaRoche's option and don't overspend for what would amount to their #5 pitcher they would have a lot of room under payroll to extend players like Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, and Ian Desmond plus take care of Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper down the line.

I wouldn't trade Goodwin. In fact, I'd trade Rendon before I moved Goodwin.

I think he's going to be special.

Offline houston-nat

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That was a pretty awesome post. Appreciate the payroll breakdown, love the itemizing of all our needs.

If I have one quibble, it's with starting pitcher:
Possible Solutions:  Craig Stammen ... Zach Duke ... Zack Greinke, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Anibal Sanchez, and Joe Saunders (as a decent innings eater).  ... Matt Garza, James Shields, Cliff Lee, and more.

Stammen, Duke, Liriano, and Saunders are definitely not solutions for #5 starter. I agree that the FO shouldn't go out and grab Greinke if they think that would prevent them from extending Zimmermann, Strasburg, etc. I also think we might see somebody like Alex Meyer emerge ready for 2014, which makes signing someone to a 1-year deal possible. If Jackson wants to stay in DC, that's a legit option. But plugging in Stammen, Duke, or Saunders would be a dumpster-dive.

I also wouldn't trade Goodwin. I'd rather keep Goodwin to start later than trade for Span now.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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That was a pretty awesome post. Appreciate the payroll breakdown, love the itemizing of all our needs.

If I have one quibble, it's with starting pitcher:
Stammen, Duke, Liriano, and Saunders are definitely not solutions for #5 starter. I agree that the FO shouldn't go out and grab Greinke if they think that would prevent them from extending Zimmermann, Strasburg, etc. I also think we might see somebody like Alex Meyer emerge ready for 2014, which makes signing someone to a 1-year deal possible. But plugging in Stammen, Duke, or Saunders would be a dumpster-dive.

And would really make shutting Strasburg down this year a curious decision as there'd be no way our starting staff in 2013 would be able to produce as the 2012 staff did... and then we're basically left hoping the offense is somehow better than it was this year.

Offline houston-nat

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And would really make shutting Strasburg down this year a curious decision as there'd be no way our starting staff in 2013 would be able to produce as the 2012 staff did... and then we're basically left hoping the offense is somehow better than it was this year.

Yeah, I'd rather sign a modest-but-not-embarrassing pitcher contract or re-sign Jackson, and then make the big splash in our lineup somewhere.

Offline mimontero88

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That was a pretty awesome post. Appreciate the payroll breakdown, love the itemizing of all our needs.

If I have one quibble, it's with starting pitcher:
Stammen, Duke, Liriano, and Saunders are definitely not solutions for #5 starter. I agree that the FO shouldn't go out and grab Greinke if they think that would prevent them from extending Zimmermann, Strasburg, etc. I also think we might see somebody like Alex Meyer emerge ready for 2014, which makes signing someone to a 1-year deal possible. If Jackson wants to stay in DC, that's a legit option. But plugging in Stammen, Duke, or Saunders would be a dumpster-dive.

I also wouldn't trade Goodwin. I'd rather keep Goodwin to start later than trade for Span now.

A #5 starter is a #5 starter.  A dumpster dive would be by no means ideal but given how good the rest of the rotation is I don't think it would kill us.  That said, I would much prefer they don't go for a Stammen/Duke/Saunders type.  If it were me I would re-sign Edwin Jackson and know that Stammen could be good for a spot start if need be.  I would certainly keep Duke for organizational depth though.  He's fine as a #7 pitcher.  That tier of pitchers would really better be used as minor league depth.

Offline blue911

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I wouldn't trade Goodwin. In fact, I'd trade Rendon before I moved Goodwin.

I think he's going to be special.


WTF, we actually agree? Mayans were right

Offline Clever

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I wouldn't trade Goodwin. In fact, I'd trade Rendon before I moved Goodwin.

I think he's going to be special.
I think Goodwin will help us to some good wins.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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A #5 starter is a #5 starter.  A dumpster dive would be by no means ideal but given how good the rest of the rotation is I don't think it would kill us.  That said, I would much prefer they don't go for a Stammen/Duke/Saunders type.  If it were me I would re-sign Edwin Jackson and know that Stammen could be good for a spot start if need be.  I would certainly keep Duke for organizational depth though.  He's fine as a #7 pitcher.  That tier of pitchers would really better be used as minor league depth.

Well, by replacing Jackson with Detwiler, you're also weakening your #4 spot in the rotation... so not only do you have a worse #5, you've also weakened your #4 slot, as well.

Offline Smithian

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And would really make shutting Strasburg down this year a curious decision as there'd be no way our starting staff in 2013 would be able to produce as the 2012 staff did... and then we're basically left hoping the offense is somehow better than it was this year.
Strasburg gets to pitch 200 innings, ZNN is back, Gio is back, Detwiler is back, and E-Jax isn't irreplaceable. Our starting five will still be one of if not the best in the entire majors. If Strasburg makes the jump ZNN does, yikes! We will have 3 All-Stars and atleast a couple guys in the running for Cy Young.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Of course, "pick up the option on LaRoche" is not realistically on the table. It is a mutual option, and unless he feels guilty about taking money for last year he's not going to throw away the opportunity to cash in on the free market after his best season.  I'm not saying he will not or should not be back. I'm just saying no way in heck he is back for $10MM / 1 yr.

The idea of Brown in a package for Span makes some sense.  There'd be other parts to the deal, but Span's contract length fits pretty well with MLB ETAs for Goodwin, Hood, or maybe Taylor.   He brings leadoff skills and D.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Strasburg gets to pitch 200 innings, ZNN is back, Gio is back, Detwiler is back, and E-Jax isn't irreplaceable. Our starting five will still be one of if not the best in the entire majors. If Strasburg makes the jump ZNN does, yikes! We will have 3 All-Stars and atleast a couple guys in the running for Cy Young.

You'd be replacing EJax who's going to have a 3+ ERA over 200 innings with someone who's likely not going to come close to those numbers.

By losing your #4, you shift your #5 to #4 and then you have to use a guy that couldn't crack the rotation this year in the 5 slot. I don't think it takes a huge leap of faith to say the rotation will likely perform worse in 2013 than it has in 2012.

And that's not to say that the 2013 rotation won't be great... it likely will... but it won't be the best in the league as I believe the 2012 staff is.

Offline Smithian

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You'd be replacing EJax who's going to have a 3+ ERA over 200 innings with someone who's likely not going to come close to those numbers.

By losing your #4, you shift your #5 to #4 and then you have to use a guy that couldn't crack the rotation this year in the 5 slot. I don't think it takes a huge leap of faith to say the rotation will likely perform worse in 2013 than it has in 2012.

And that's not to say that the 2013 rotation won't be great... it likely will... but it won't be WS winning caliber as I believe the 2012 staff is.
Detwiler has an ERA of 3.02 and Edwin Jackson is 3.57. I think ERA is not all telling, but that is a big difference. Ross Detwiler is coming a 3.00 ERA year and Edwin Jackson is having the year of his life. Detwiler should never have left the rotation this year except the team is overly enamored by CMW.

Detwiler is cracking out his second good season in a row. At what point do people stop acting like he and his ERA are a mirage? He'd be a #2/3 on most teams. A really good one.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Detwiler has an ERA of 3.02 and Edwin Jackson is 3.57. I think ERA is not all telling, but that is a big difference. Ross Detwiler is coming a 3.00 ERA year and Edwin Jackson is having the year of his life. Detwiler should never have left the rotation this year except the team is overly enamored by CMW.

Detwiler is cracking out his second good season in a row. At what point do people stop acting like he and his ERA are a mirage? He'd be a #2/3 on most teams. A really good one.

It's not that Detwiler is replacing Jackson, it's that someone is replacing Detwiler.

That's where the real drop off will be seen.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Linty - assuming health, you'll get 30 -40 extra innings out of Strasburg and probably another 30 - 40 innings of Detwiler as a starter.  Det only has gone 104 innings, 91  as a starter. Figuring he pitches the rest of the way, should max out at about 160 innings / 145 as a starter.   It is probably safe to say that that inning total could be bumped up to 185 starting next year.  Those two moves replace 80 innings of Jackson's at probably an upgrade.  What you will need to replace is another 100 innings of Jackson and 50 innings of Wang and Lannan.

usually, there are starters who somehow miscalulate the FA market and are available in January and February. That's probably your Jackson replacement, unless he signs here reasonably.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Goodwin is our CF/leadoff guy of the future.  Trading him for a guy who's older with recent injury problems is nuts.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Smithian - FIP is a better predicter of next year's ERA for a guy not changing parks, so writing in Detwiler for better than a 3.5 ERA, or roughly what Jackson has done, is optimistic.

Offline Smithian

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Linty - assuming health, you'll get 30 -40 extra innings out of Strasburg and probably another 30 - 40 innings of Detwiler as a starter.  Det only has gone 104 innings, 91  as a starter. Figuring he pitches the rest of the way, should max out at about 160 innings / 145 as a starter.   It is probably safe to say that that inning total could be bumped up to 185 starting next year.  Those two moves replace 80 innings of Jackson's at probably an upgrade.  What you will need to replace is another 100 innings of Jackson and 50 innings of Wang and Lannan.

usually, there are starters who somehow miscalulate the FA market and are available in January and February. That's probably your Jackson replacement, unless he signs here reasonably.
Yup! Hopefully we can find another E-Jax type who eats innings.

If not and Lannan is the option and replicates last season, I would be very content if our #5 starter made 30+ starts with a 3.70 ERA and 180+ innings pitched. That's more than enough to get the team in the playoff and then the top 4 take over.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Btw, I have an idea for a fifth starter next year:


Offline Smithian

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Smithian - FIP is a better predicter of next year's ERA for a guy not changing parks, so writing in Detwiler for better than a 3.5 ERA, or roughly what Jackson has done, is optimistic.
Same argument was made after last year that FIP/BABIP would lead to Detwiler falling off(I was one of his staunch defenders over the offseason). Just checked Fangraphs and his FIP has actually improved by .62 and his K/9 and BB/9 rates have both improved.

Maybe he drops off, but I think the guy at some point becomes better than his advanced number would indicate. ERA has stood the test of time for a reason.

Offline blue911

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Strasbourg will be a better pitcher. This year has been a teaching/learning season. Next year I fully expect a Gooden85 or Rocket86 equivalent.

Offline Smithian

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Strasbourg will be a better pitcher. This year has been a teaching/learning season. Next year I fully expect a Gooden85 or Rocket86 equivalent.

Pedro 2000 or GTFO

Offline mimontero88

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If any of you guys realistically believes that Lannan will be back next year you are nuts.  The Nats are paying him $5 million to have made a total of two starts to this point of the season.  They don't want to pay him and that relationship is probably permanently broken.  Linty, I would argue that Jackson IS the #5 at this point with Detwiler frankly having surpassed him.  I would re-sign Jackson too or (in an even more ideal world) let him go and put Lannan into that #5 spot but those either will or will not be possibilities (in Lannan's case the answer is not).  Regardless there is too much pitching out there for us to realistically struggle to find a very good #5.  I'm more concerned about what kind of depth we will be able to maintain in our minor league system for when we inevitably need it.

Online HalfSmokes

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  • You're sicke Jesse, sick sick sick
I wouldn't totally discount Lannan- if they really cared about the relationship, they would have traded him, and he's going to be arb eligible, so it's not like they have to sit down and mutually agree to a contract. Right now, he's making $5 million now, so maybe a little over $4 million (the maximum paycut is 20% and I can't imagine he would get close to that with almost no starts in the majors) would be the number next year. If they can find a better fifth starter for less great, otherwise I'd imagine they'd offer Lannan arbitration at which point, he can either retire or pitch for the nats next year.