Author Topic: Nats 2013 Projected Payroll, Needs, and Possible Solutions  (Read 2904 times)

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Online Slateman

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #75: August 10, 2012, 11:53:34 PM »
If he's doing it at  age 33, he can say talk smack.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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If you could get ALR on 2 years plus an option, then that might be ideal.  The rest of the decisions line up. 

I don't disagree with those who think Morse is risky for a long term contract.  Any decline in the muzzle velocity when he hits and he becomes a bad outfielder whose OBP declines from .340 to .320 with a bit of residual pop.  If he has a year like this year (he's going to finish with very good numbers, HRs and RBIs that most players will not put up in a full season), then you maybe add a year.  I compared his contract to Ortiz.  I don't recall him ever having a 3 year contract despite being near-MVp in his prime.  That is Morse's situation.  Not saying he is Ortiz, but just that with the contract leverage and the questionable projections (Ortiz - body and decline in the late 00s, Morse the plate discipline and lack of skills for D in the NL), he will not get a long term contract.

As for the White Whale, with ALR, there is no need to go outside the organization right away.  Ellsbury might be ideal, but you wait for his free agency because, as a Boras client, you are going to pay either way. Might as well not strip the team while you are doing it.  If Ells hits the market and Goodwin looks like he's not the real deal, then you consider signing him and maybe dealing Goodwin while you can still sell the sizzle. More likely, you laugh all the way to the bank with the money you are saving and wait for Goodwin. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #77: August 11, 2012, 01:36:38 AM »
If he's doing it at  age 33, he can say talk smack.

+1

Look, Smithian.  If we wanted to keep score on who is simplifying the case of others taking an opposite view, that kind of BS would take the cake.  Your treating any skepticism about current performance as baseless.  You are simplifying the discussion of Detwiler and Morse down to nothing but baseless hate.  As I've said to others, make your case based on a convincing argument and not the unicorns and rainbows.

You said saying Ross Detwiler might not in the long term be better than most of the Hall of Fame quality pitchers in MLB over the past 20 years us just over emphasizing peripherals.  Saying he's a mid-3s ERA pitcher is baseless and that he will continue to be a sub 3 ERA pitcher for his career.  Heck, I have been a fanboy of him for the past 3 or 4 years and I  am not flinging that sort of monkey poo against the wall.  It may even be reasonable to point out he is a lefty with a hard sinker and that is the type of pitcher who often beats projections (which is something acknowledges by sabermetricians if you took the time to read what you criticize), but to just say to ignore the history of baseball and a lot of research before you for an opinion is no better than pointing to a couple of ABs by Kurt Suzuki and saying "I told you so."

As for Morse, look at my signature.  I've followed his career probably a lot longer than you have. Admittedly, I did it from a fantasy perspective from the first time he was called up, but I think I don't qualify as a hater.  Structuring a roster means making some hard decisions and occasionally selling high if you can.  To recognize that there are aspects of his plate discipline, physique, injury history, etc... that make him less than an ideal candidate for a 4+ year contract is not hate.  If you want to call those considerations "peripherals," OK, but recognize that the warning you see on stock purchases (past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns) also applies to baseball players as they age. If it is reasonable to project what Bryce Harper will do in a few years based of the learning curve and age, then it is not unreasonable to make similar points about Morse. 

Offline Smithian

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #78: August 11, 2012, 02:10:57 AM »
+1

Look, Smithian.  If we wanted to keep score on who is simplifying the case of others taking an opposite view, that kind of BS would take the cake.  Your treating any skepticism about current performance as baseless.  You are simplifying the discussion of Detwiler and Morse down to nothing but baseless hate.  As I've said to others, make your case based on a convincing argument and not the unicorns and rainbows.

You said saying Ross Detwiler might not in the long term be better than most of the Hall of Fame quality pitchers in MLB over the past 20 years us just over emphasizing peripherals.  Saying he's a mid-3s ERA pitcher is baseless and that he will continue to be a sub 3 ERA pitcher for his career.  Heck, I have been a fanboy of him for the past 3 or 4 years and I  am not flinging that sort of monkey poo against the wall.  It may even be reasonable to point out he is a lefty with a hard sinker and that is the type of pitcher who often beats projections (which is something acknowledges by sabermetricians if you took the time to read what you criticize), but to just say to ignore the history of baseball and a lot of research before you for an opinion is no better than pointing to a couple of ABs by Kurt Suzuki and saying "I told you so."

As for Morse, look at my signature.  I've followed his career probably a lot longer than you have. Admittedly, I did it from a fantasy perspective from the first time he was called up, but I think I don't qualify as a hater.  Structuring a roster means making some hard decisions and occasionally selling high if you can.  To recognize that there are aspects of his plate discipline, physique, injury history, etc... that make him less than an ideal candidate for a 4+ year contract is not hate.  If you want to call those considerations "peripherals," OK, but recognize that the warning you see on stock purchases (past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns) also applies to baseball players as they age. If it is reasonable to project what Bryce Harper will do in a few years based of the learning curve and age, then it is not unreasonable to make similar points about Morse.
I never said Detwiler will continue to be amazing, but I do think even if his ERA goes up to around 3.3 he is still a top of the line pitcher. As far as Morse, he is getting beat up about his walk totals, but that isn't his game it seems. He is a free swinger with excellent power. I also think Morse will be fine for a few more years since he is doesn't have a ton of baseball on his legs like most guys his age. Also, I think he has been noted around WNFF lately for not being good defensively, but if he moves to 1B he is better than average. We here on WNFF loved him last year at first partly because his defense. He isn't Adam LaRoche, but he is above average. I think Morse could (not will) be our first baseman through at least 2014. I am mindfacting that he is a good athlete for his size and we know he has good power. We've been really spoiled by excellent play by LaRoche, but if he leaves we'll be more than ok with Morse.

I do think Morse should be shopped around for a CF if LaRoche returns.

That and I made that post partly since I was on this thread again when he hit that one tonight. I was :metal: :woop:

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #79: August 11, 2012, 09:28:02 AM »
Morse's legs need less miles than most to get wrecked - he is the worst runner that I have ever seen in the history of ever.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Here's where it starts to get difficult- where does the team improve from an offensive standpoint? 3B, SS, and 2B are definitely locked up for a while (we could stand to improve on Espinosa, but that's unlikely to occur), as are two OF spots by Werth and Harper. Catcher isn't a suitable spot for prospects, obviously, and we haven't even spoken about what to do about Morse and LaRoche. And that's before Tyler Moore is accounted for. Where does Rendon, or anyone else really, fit in? The offense can definitely stand to improve, the question is where? Harper has to improve, of course, which I fully expect him to do, but with the exception of catcher, which is pretty much beyond help, where do you go?

Offline blue911

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fWAR has the Nats 8th out of 30 in offense.

B-R has the Nats 11th out of 30 in OPS+, 8th in WPA (first in WPA+, which is positive events only)

BP has the Nats 8th out of 30 in VORP.


They are missing Wilson Ramos, who is far and away their best offensive catcher. I don't believe Ian Desmond will continue putting up monster numbers but he is the only player that is having a "career year".  They need to tweak the offense but there doesn't appear to be a need to make a major trade, not this off season at least. Get Greinke!


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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When Greinke prices him out of the market seeking 7 years and $20MM AAV, we'll give him a nice 1 year pillow to land on for $15MM.

Offline Tyler Durden

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When Greinke prices him out of the market seeking 7 years and $20MM AAV, we'll give him a nice 1 year pillow to land on for $15MM.

This happened last year with Jackson.  I'm sure it will happen again to somebody.  Maybe not Greinke, but we could get a pretty good player this way.

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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This happened last year with Jackson.  I'm sure it will happen again to somebody.  Maybe not Greinke, but we could get a pretty good player this way.

Unlike CF with Goodwin, I don't see a magic prospect who we wouldn't want to block at Starting Pitcher.  There's plenty of tradeable contracts if one of Meyer, Purke, or Giolito made a remarkable push to start in 2014.  I hope the Nats sign Greinke long-term, with Edwin being the backup option.

Offline Hogie

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We will also be "adding" Bryce Harper to next year's team. Not 19-year-old Bryce Harper. But (hopefully) MVP candidate for the next 10+ years Bryce Harper.

Offline houston-nat

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We will also be "adding" Bryce Harper to next year's team. Not 19-year-old Bryce Harper. But (hopefully) MVP candidate for the next 10+ years Bryce Harper.

Mike Trout age 19: 40 games, .281 OBP, 5HR, 89 wRC+
Mike Trout age 20: 90 games, .407 OBP, 21HR, 184 wRC+
BELIEVE

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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I think it means he's totally dependent on his ability to make contact. Unless he is HoF type hitter, that is going to diminish over time. Historically, that will begin around 30.

When he's a free agent, Morse will be 30. He will walk for a big deal. It's his first, and probably only, shot at free agency type pay checks. We would be wise  to get something of value for him if possible.

No, it means exactly the opposite of that.  He has a high K-rate, so he hits well without making as much contact as low-K, low-BB guys.  His high BABIP suggests he's not making that much contact, but when he does he either gets lucky or makes it count.  I think it's the latter.

 He's dependent on his ability to make direct contact so as to really crush the hell out of the baseball.

Offline houston-nat

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He's dependent on his ability to make direct contact so as to really crush the hell out of the baseball.

Sort of like a way less exaggerated/mood-swingy Josh Hamilton.

Offline Jordanz Meatballz

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A more powerful Ian Desmond.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Nationals extend Chad Tracy
« Reply #90: August 26, 2012, 10:42:09 AM »
It looks like the position players are set except for settling 1B. Lombo, Tracy, Moore and Bernadina and Flores. Bullpen may see a few additions .

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Re: Nationals extend Chad Tracy
« Reply #91: August 26, 2012, 04:32:18 PM »
And Hamilton of course.

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: Re: Nationals extend Chad Tracy
« Reply #92: August 27, 2012, 12:01:52 AM »
Unless Ramos doesn't heal properly, Flores/Suzuki won't be back with the squad in 2013.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Nationals extend Chad Tracy
« Reply #93: August 27, 2012, 03:28:44 AM »
Unless Ramos doesn't heal properly, Flores/Suzuki won't be back with the squad in 2013.

Suzuki is making a lot of money next year. He will be back.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: Nationals extend Chad Tracy
« Reply #94: August 27, 2012, 08:36:41 AM »
Unless the Dodgers are buying.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: the catching carousel (merged)
« Reply #95: August 27, 2012, 08:41:15 AM »
Unless the Dodgers are buying.

I wonder what we'd have to package to get them to take him [edit - i.e., Suzuki] - there was an e-mail to the pregame show suggesting we trade them werth, they rightly scoffed, but the idea is intriguing if they'd bite

Offline tomterp

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Re: Re: Nationals extend Chad Tracy
« Reply #96: August 27, 2012, 08:53:01 AM »
Unless Ramos doesn't heal properly, Flores/Suzuki won't be back with the squad in 2013.

The catcher competition will be one to watch in spring training.

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: Re: Nationals extend Chad Tracy
« Reply #97: August 27, 2012, 09:11:41 AM »
Just like it was supposed to be this year?

Flores has proven to be a backup. So unless they don't feel comfortable with Suzuki being a backup or Ramos doesn't heal, I don't see Flores back with the Nats.

Online Lintyfresh85

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Re: Re: the catching carousel (merged)
« Reply #98: August 27, 2012, 09:14:37 AM »
They don't need an OF'er. They have Crawford, Kemp and Either locked up for years to come.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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bump.  added material from the Tracy re-signing thread that is basically a discussion of bench, FAs, and catchers for 2013.