Author Topic: Nats 2013 Projected Payroll, Needs, and Possible Solutions  (Read 4397 times)

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Offline Hogie

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Hamilton would be a luxury. That would be the most beautiful part.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #51: August 10, 2012, 11:27:13 AM »
If we sign ALR, Morse could be very useful to a low budget contender in 2013 (Oakland, Tampa Bay) or a team looking for a right to complement a lefty middle of the order.

morse for aj cole

Online tomterp

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #52: August 10, 2012, 11:49:37 AM »

Morse has a .338 wOBA this year.

I'm not sure how to calculate that for a partial year, but don't forget Morse spent the first 3+ weeks on the team this year essentially regaining his timing following his DL stint.

Through June 25 (88 PA's) he was at   .217 / .239 / .313 / .552
Since June 25 he's had 181 PA's and hit  .345 / .367 /.548 /.915

I'm going to bet that set of results looks pretty competitive at 1b.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #53: August 10, 2012, 02:38:07 PM »
Mindfact alert?

He'll be 32 years old in 2014. He's already a poor defender and baserunner, and is unlikely to improve at either of those things.

He is no certainty to be "good enough" for a contending club at 1B in 2014, let alone for several years beyond that.

I'm sorry but I don't see the purpose or rationale for trading a .300 /30 HR guy. He does an adequete job as a 1B . Not as good or close as ALR

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #54: August 10, 2012, 02:39:21 PM »
I'm sorry but I don't see the purpose or rationale for trading a .300 /30 HR guy. He does an adequete job as a 1B . Not as good or close as ALR

The rationale is that you don't think Morse will put up those numbers much longer... as he fits the big body/old age prototype pretty well.

Of course, there's guys like Konerko who just keep on producing years past their supposed prime.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #55: August 10, 2012, 03:07:30 PM »
I respect your analysis and I think Morse was a late bloomer and not much wear and tear on his body prior to his break out in late  2010. I see him producing for another three years before I would get concerned. Everyone is sorry that Willingham was traded for essentially nothing and most of us would like him back.He could have helped the past several years.What about Jim Thone?He keeps on ticking.

Online NJ Ave

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #56: August 10, 2012, 03:17:18 PM »
I'm sorry but I don't see the purpose or rationale for trading a .300 /30 HR guy. He does an adequete job as a 1B . Not as good or close as ALR

Because he's not a .300, 30 home run guy? Since 1990, there have only been 27 non-Coors Field seasons where a player has hit 30 or more home runs and batted .300 or above with less than 45 walks. No one in that time period has ever done it more than once at Morse's age.

I'm not knocking Morse - he seems like a good guy and he had a really good season for us last year. But I don't want to count on a guy for long-term production when he strikes out 4 times as often as he walks and is on the wrong end of the aging curve. He's basically a cross between Alfonso Soriano and the Hulk, and Soriano hasn't put up a WAR over 2 since his age-31 season.

Online NJ Ave

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #57: August 10, 2012, 03:18:32 PM »
I respect your analysis and I think Morse was a late bloomer and not much wear and tear on his body prior to his break out in late  2010. I see him producing for another three years before I would get concerned. Everyone is sorry that Willingham was traded for essentially nothing and most of us would like him back.He could have helped the past several years.What about Jim Thone?He keeps on ticking.

Willingham and Jim Thome have a pretty big hitting skill that Morse doesn't possess. You know who also aged well? Rickey Henderson.

Online Slateman

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #58: August 10, 2012, 03:58:52 PM »
I'm sorry but I don't see the purpose or rationale for trading a .300 /30 HR guy. He does an adequete job as a 1B . Not as good or close as ALR

He's living off a abnormally high BABIP. He doesn't walk, he strikes others 25% of the time and he isn't going to be beating out a whole lot of infield hits. He is completely reliant on making good contact. Which means that as he ages, that skill will diminish.




Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #59: August 10, 2012, 04:00:08 PM »
Willingham and Jim Thome have a pretty big hitting skill that Morse doesn't possess. You know who also aged well? Rickey Henderson.

Please explain the difference between Willingham and Morse skillset.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #60: August 10, 2012, 04:04:31 PM »
He's living off a abnormally high BABIP. He doesn't walk, he strikes others 25% of the time and he isn't going to be beating out a whole lot of infield hits. He is completely reliant on making good contact. Which means that as he ages, that skill will diminish.


I'd be curious to see how pecota has him aging

Please explain the difference between Willingham and Morse skillset.

3% walk rate/22% k rate vs 13% walk rate/22% k rate this year

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #61: August 10, 2012, 04:45:33 PM »
3% walk rate/22% k rate vs 13% walk rate/22% k rate this year

OK , so he doesn't walk. I still like his slugging pct. He does pretty well with RISP (mind fact). I wouldn't trade him period. I believe that the FO probably feels the same way , hence the 2 year contract.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #62: August 10, 2012, 04:48:31 PM »
The two year contract just bought out his arbitration- I think it was a pretty clear sign he wasnt in the long term plans when it was signed.

Online Slateman

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #63: August 10, 2012, 05:02:03 PM »
The two year contract just bought out his arbitration- I think it was a pretty clear sign he wasnt in the long term plans when it was signed.

Actually, it was the Nats gambling that he will repeat last year's performance. Essentially, if he had, arbitration would have cost the Nats a lot more. .300/30 home run players don't grow on trees.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #64: August 10, 2012, 06:49:48 PM »
Since the ASB, Morse has gotten back to his usual ~20 PA/HR pace (close to what he had in 2010 and 2011), yet his K/BB is 28/3.  He's also hitting over .300 in that time.

I think he's just an exception to the K/BB rule of thumb.

The far greater problem isn't whether he can continue to hit this way if left unrestrained - it's whether he can hit this way if he is restrained...by injuries.  His injury history jumps out at you, and the injury this year led to the slower start pre-ASB wherein his BA and PA/HR rate couldn't overcome the bad peripherals.

I'm wondering if he has some weird mechanical thing going on that leads to such good BA/power numbers despite a really atrocious K/BB rate.  It might require him to be absolutely flawless in repeating his swing or else doom can strike.

If that's the case, I think it's good reason to be cautious about keeping him in the fold, but the K/BB by itself doesn't scare me too much.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Seems like there is a relationship between the future of LaRoche, Morse, White Whale, and Other for 2013, 2014, and beyond.   

The decision on ALR will be decided this offseason.  With the mutual option ($10MM / $1MM buyout) for next year likely to be exercised by the team but declined by ALR (even if he wants to come back, he would probably think he can get more than an additional $9MM above his buyout from the team), the team would likely make a qualifying offer of $13MM or so for 2013, expecting ALR to look for a 2 or more year contract for more guaranteed money elsewhere, with the alternative they lock him up at a mutually acceptable deal for 2 years and option, and deeming it acceptable if he took the qualifying offer.

Morse's future is probably dependent on resolving ALR's future.  Morse is under contract pretty cheap through 2013.  He can defend at first acceptably and can be tolerable in LF as long as his bat is like last year and like how it has been since 6/25.   There are red flags about his offense all over the place, but you would expect that over the next 2 months and next year we'd get a good sense of how much of a gamble it would be extending him.  My sense is his future contracts will follow the path Carlos Pena and David Ortiz have followed - seven figures but year to year - to compensate for the warning signs.  Maybe there is a 2 year deal for him in his future like ALR's 2011 - 2012 (lower  AAV but multi year.

White Whale plays into the future of Morse and ALR.  Given that the team has gone into every offseason and most trade deadlines looking for a CF, preferably a leadoff CF (thus, the term White Whale), you would think that Rizzo may still be looking to harpoon one this offseason.  It is probably less imperative with Morse under contract, Werth still pretty athletic and under contract and Bryce probably only improving in the OF going forward.  That said, if ALR is back, Morse as part of a package for a White Whale might make some sense, or, without ALR, you could easily see Morse at first and White Whale roaming the OF. 

The identity of the White Whale is not clear.  Denard Span and BJ Upton were the names kicked around last year.  Span would be a trade target under contract through 2014 with an option for 2015 maxing at $9MM.  He fits the lead off profile and is on a team with a need for young cost controlled regulars.  Upton is a free agent this offseason.  He does not fit the leadoff profile but provides power, speed, and defense.   Josh Hamilton is another free agent who can play CF or corner outfield.  He will require a huge AAV and multiple years, but is a clear short term upgrade.   To throw out one more name from outside the organization, Jacoby Ellsbury has one more year of team control.  He'd be the classic White Whale in terms of leadoff and CF defense, with significantly better power than Span. However, he is likely to be in a bidding war next year if he hits free agency.  There's a chance he'd be on the trade block if the Red Sox think Kalish could handle CF and could get significant help back for next year and beyond, but given Boston's interest in contending year to year, this isn't likely (IMO).  Finally, is the White Whale in house and in Harrisburg and named Brian Goodwin?  Not for 2013, but if Morse is not traded for 2013 and ALR is back on a 2 - 3 year contract, Brian Goodwin should figure in the plans sometime in 2014, or perhaps a Destin Hood in a corner and Harper in CF.

Other would be, in no particular order, Tyler Moore, Danny Espinosa, Steve Lombardozzi and the top prospects (Rendon, Goodwin, other OFs).  Moore has looked terrific in his role and could conceivably play opposite a lefty bat in either left or 1st were ALR to leave and no White Whale landed.  This would be a roll of the dice, especially for a contender, and would weaken the bench. 

Espinosa and Lombardozzi could affect the plan for Anthony Rendon if 2B were suddenly open.  Espinosa's 2d half and his time filling in at SS makes him even more tempting trade bait for a team looking for a SS (for those of you thinking of Ellsbury, the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts in their system as a high level SS prospect, so it's not clear whether they'd want Espinosa for a couple years until Bogaerts is ready).  Were neither Espinosa nor Lombo moved, then the question becomes, does the team perhaps go with some combo of Morse, Moore, Marrero, or maybe ALR fo a year or two and hope Rendon takes over 1B, or does Rendon become trade bait?   

There seems to be a logical order for the decisions - first, do we try to retain ALR?  If we retain ALR, then is Morse traded for a White Whale or does he keep LF warm until we land the White Whale?  If ALR is not retained, how long do we stick with Morse at first?  If we trade for a White Whale, who is the bait?  Once those questions are resolved, then you slot in Goodwin and Rendon if one or both are not traded and if they develop as projected.

I know - tl;dr, but these questions are all linked.  To my mind, the key is the fate of ALR, then the decisions cascade.

Offline Tyler Durden

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I can't see Ellsbury fitting in here.  He's going to cost a lot in a trade and he's going to get a huge contract. 

He had one MVP caliber year and other years, he's been a good but not great player - http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/ellsbja01.shtml

I'd rather either trade for a guy who will ahve a lower salary (Span, Fowler, etc.) or just sign Michael Bourn or Shane Victorino.

But as to your larger point about LaRohce - I agree that a lot hinges on what happens with him.  All the CFs the Nats might be after are either switch hitters or lefties and they would help make up for the loss of LaRoche's bat.

I don't think Morse will be here past 2013.  Rendon and Moore can most likely make up for everything they'd be losing if they let Morse walk in free agency (and hopefully collect a draft pick?).

Online HalfSmokes

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I wonder if our scorer can go back and erase Rollin's hitting streak from 05-06

Offline lastobjective

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I wonder if our scorer can go back and erase Rollin's hitting streak from 05-06

Possibly wrong thread but :lmao:

Offline Hogie

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The more I think about it, the more I think they're going to do everything within reason to sign LaRoche to a multi-year deal. Of course, someone like the Dodgers could come and offer him a ridiculous contract and there's nothing the Nats could do about it, but I think the preference will be to keep LaRoche.

If you let LaRoche walk because he's going to be 33, then there's no reason to not to do the same to Morse a year later when he'll be 32. And then were are you? The free agent class of first basemen that year is woefully old and thin. I, for one, do not see Tyler Moore as an every day answer at any position.

If you can sign LaRoche to a 2-3 year deal and keep Morse in the OF for one more year, then go take the $50+ million that you saved by not splurging on an overpriced CFer and work on extensions for Zimm'nn and Desmond.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #70: August 10, 2012, 08:37:45 PM »
DFA

Call him up!!!!!
:lmao:

Can we just petition to schedule all of our interleague games in the second half next year so he can DH half the time after he's called up?



Reject everything but interleague

Offline wpa2629

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The more I think about it, the more I think they're going to do everything within reason to sign LaRoche to a multi-year deal. Of course, someone like the Dodgers could come and offer him a ridiculous contract and there's nothing the Nats could do about it, but I think the preference will be to keep LaRoche.

If you let LaRoche walk because he's going to be 33, then there's no reason to not to do the same to Morse a year later when he'll be 32. And then were are you? The free agent class of first basemen that year is woefully old and thin. I, for one, do not see Tyler Moore as an every day answer at any position.

If you can sign LaRoche to a 2-3 year deal and keep Morse in the OF for one more year, then go take the $50+ million that you saved by not splurging on an overpriced CFer and work on extensions for Zimm'nn and Desmond.

Right, and by then (2014 or so) Goodwin is ready to take over in centerfield and you've got a lot more options/flexibility.

I'd like to see us keep ALR through at least till then as well.

Online Slateman

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #72: August 10, 2012, 09:37:30 PM »
Since the ASB, Morse has gotten back to his usual ~20 PA/HR pace (close to what he had in 2010 and 2011), yet his K/BB is 28/3.  He's also hitting over .300 in that time.

I think he's just an exception to the K/BB rule of thumb.

The far greater problem isn't whether he can continue to hit this way if left unrestrained - it's whether he can hit this way if he is restrained...by injuries.  His injury history jumps out at you, and the injury this year led to the slower start pre-ASB wherein his BA and PA/HR rate couldn't overcome the bad peripherals.

I'm wondering if he has some weird mechanical thing going on that leads to such good BA/power numbers despite a really atrocious K/BB rate.  It might require him to be absolutely flawless in repeating his swing or else doom can strike.

If that's the case, I think it's good reason to be cautious about keeping him in the fold, but the K/BB by itself doesn't scare me too much.

I think it means he's totally dependent on his ability to make contact. Unless he is HoF type hitter, that is going to diminish over time. Historically, that will begin around 30.

When he's a free agent, Morse will be 30. He will walk for a big deal. It's his first, and probably only, shot at free agency type pay checks. We would be wise  to get something of value for him if possible.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #73: August 10, 2012, 11:17:26 PM »
With some of your all's inability to accept guys can perform differently than their peripherals (Detwiler pitching, Morse hitting), I must assume some of you think games could be played on paper and champions  be determined by WAR projections from the previous season.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Re: Follow the Prospects: Anthony Rendon, 3B
« Reply #74: August 10, 2012, 11:29:31 PM »
Another homer and Morse says "WHAT UP HATERS!"