Author Topic: Nats 2013 Projected Payroll, Needs, and Possible Solutions  (Read 7013 times)

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Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11499
  • Sunshine Squad 2022
Smithian - FIP is a better predicter of next year's ERA for a guy not changing parks, so writing in Detwiler for better than a 3.5 ERA, or roughly what Jackson has done, is optimistic.
Same argument was made after last year that FIP/BABIP would lead to Detwiler falling off(I was one of his staunch defenders over the offseason). Just checked Fangraphs and his FIP has actually improved by .62 and his K/9 and BB/9 rates have both improved.

Maybe he drops off, but I think the guy at some point becomes better than his advanced number would indicate. ERA has stood the test of time for a reason.