Author Topic: All About Ross D (Merges Dess Rotweiler, Cy Young, Appreciation)  (Read 2840 times)

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Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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I've been a huge Detwiler fans since midway through last season. Lots of people keep predicting his demise due to peripherals, but the same thing was said after last season and he's still tearing it up this season. He has good stuff and soon enough we'll have to open the bank for him.

His peripherals are actually good.

I'm starting to finally believe in the guy. He eroded some of my confidence with the kind of lousy mini-stretch that got him demoted, but I think that demotion was good for him.  My chief complaint was that he seemed to have mental issues with adversity and perhaps stamina problems.  The mental stuff seems to have taken a 180 - since the re-promotion to the rotation, he's not letting baserunners get to him the same way.  He also seems to be gaining stamina as he's gotten stretched out more after that hip injury a few seasons ago set him back.

All in all, I like what I'm seeing and I hope he can maybe keep it together if he's our #4 in the postseason.

Offline mimontero88

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My chief complaint was that he seemed to have mental issues with adversity and perhaps stamina problems.  The mental stuff seems to have taken a 180 - since the re-promotion to the rotation, he's not letting baserunners get to him the same way.
According to Ross, he started to try to emulate Gio Gonzalez's demeanor on the mound and Gio kept encouraging him to not be so stressed and just go out there and have fun and do what you're good at.  He credits Gio for a lot of his second-half success.

Offline PANatsFan

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Det and Klej is a winning combo

Offline Sharp

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Detwiler obviously isn't going to continue to be nearly this good but what he's done for the Nats as a fifth starter is pretty awesome.

Offline Smithian

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Detwiler obviously isn't going to continue to be nearly this good but what he's done for the Nats as a fifth starter is pretty awesome.
His ERA is a small bit worse than last season.

His success is constantly explained away, but it's about time he is celebrated.

Offline Terpfan76

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Detwiler obviously isn't going to continue to be nearly this good but what he's done for the Nats as a fifth starter is pretty awesome.

Why not? Is it not possible he's maturing and developing into the pitcher some envisioned when he was drafted? I'm not suggesting he'll be a HoFer or anything, but developing into a top #2 quality pitcher is far from out of the question.

Offline Sharp

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So you guys think Detwiler is going to have a 2.99 ERA going forward?  I love what we're getting from him, but I don't think it's being terribly pessimistic or anti-Ross to say that's not very likely.  That would require him to outperform his peripherals like twice as much as Lannan has over his career, and Lannan is either the luckiest man alive or an extreme outlier.  Detwiler just isn't good enough for an even semi-objective observer to seriously expect him to be one of the best pitchers in the game going forward.  It's always possible that he takes a sudden leap and his skillset changes to the point where that happens (see Lee, Cl.), but it's certainly not something I'd ever expect to happen.

Online Lintyfresh85

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I still see him as what his xfip sees him at. 4.06. Nothing wrong with that for a #5 starter.

Offline HalfSmokes

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is number 5 starter the new back handed compliment on this board?

Offline mimontero88

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I still see him as what his xfip sees him at. 4.06. Nothing wrong with that for a #5 starter.

Pitchers who pitch to contact as Detwiler does tend to outperform their FIP and xFIP.  Detwiler would not be the first pitcher to consistently outperform his sabermetric numbers.  Again, sabermetrics are great but they aren't perfect for every pitcher.

Offline hammondsnats

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he pitches better against good teams than bad teams lol

Offline nobleisthyname

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Pitchers who pitch to contact as Detwiler does tend to outperform their FIP and xFIP.  Detwiler would not be the first pitcher to consistently outperform his sabermetric numbers.  Again, sabermetrics are great but they aren't perfect for every pitcher.

That's fine. But it means he must depend upon solid defense to help him out (which the Nats do have currently). And what happens if he can't maintain his ridiculous groundball rate? There's nothing wrong with pitching to contact and there are plenty of pitchers who have been very successful with that approach but there are reasons why sabermetrics prefers high strikeout/low walk guys.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Since 1990, 3 starting pitchers have had a post-90 career ERA lower than 3 - Jose Rijo, Clayton Kershaw, and Pedro Martinez.  When you add in his pre-1990 career, Rijo drops from the list. 

Is it impossible that Detwiler can maintain an ERA under 3?  It's not unprecedented, and guys can do it for a streak of years.  Is it likely? no.  Is it likely that's where his career will end up?  You can say with a greater degree of probability than you can say with most medicial diagnoses that the answer is no.

The value of looking at the whole series of metrics, like K rate, velocity, pitch movement, BB rate, contact and other measures is you get a better approximation of a player's abilities going forward than just looking at ERA over 25 - 30 starts.  No one is arguing what Det has done.  The folks who are saying he will merely be excellent instead of one of the 3 best starting pitchers in recent times are arguing likelihood when projecting future performance. 

Offline nobleisthyname

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Since 1990, 3 starting pitchers have had a post-90 career ERA lower than 3 - Jose Rijo, Clayton Kershaw, and Pedro Martinez.  When you add in his pre-1990 career, Rijo drops from the list. 

Is it impossible that Detwiler can maintain an ERA under 3?  It's not unprecedented, and guys can do it for a streak of years.  Is it likely? no.  Is it likely that's where his career will end up?  You can say with a greater degree of probability than you can say with most medicial diagnoses that the answer is no.

The value of looking at the whole series of metrics, like K rate, velocity, pitch movement, BB rate, contact and other measures is you get a better approximation of a player's abilities going forward than just looking at ERA over 25 - 30 starts.  No one is arguing what Det has done.  The folks who are saying he will merely be excellent instead of one of the 3 best starting pitchers in recent times are arguing likelihood when projecting future performance.

Pretty much this.

Or as this board likes to say:

Sanity  :clap:  :lol:

Offline Tyler Durden

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Even if you go by his xFIP (4.16) this year, he has around the same xFIP as Buerhle (4.21), CJ Wilson (4.10), Matt Harrison (4.10), and Kyle Lohse (4.16). 

If you want to label that a '#5 starter,' that's fine, but whatever he gets labelled, he's been very good this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17%2cd

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Quote
Pitchers who pitch to contact as Detwiler does tend to outperform their FIP and xFIP.  Detwiler would not be the first pitcher to consistently outperform his sabermetric numbers.  Again, sabermetrics are great but they aren't perfect for every pitcher.
This is mostly right, and a point acknowledged by many of the people who put together sabermetric measures.  At some of the extremes, the systems don't work.  from what I have seen, several have problems with 50%+ GB pitchers.

In some ways, Detwiler is throwing like a lefty CMW in his prime or Brandon Webb / Shawn Hill before injury. Wang and Webb were Cys or Cy candidates when they were throwing high GB rates and getting 6 or so K/9

Offline houston-nat

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Even if you go by his xFIP (4.16) this year, he has around the same xFIP as Buerhle (4.21), CJ Wilson (4.10), Matt Harrison (4.10), and Kyle Lohse (4.16). 

If you want to label that a '#5 starter,' that's fine, but whatever he gets labelled, he's been very good this year.

Exactly.... we have three #1 starters, two #3 starters, and a #5 starter in AAA. A lot better than the years when we had five #5 starters.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Even if you go by his xFIP (4.16) this year, he has around the same xFIP as Buerhle (4.21), CJ Wilson (4.10), Matt Harrison (4.10), and Kyle Lohse (4.16). 

If you want to label that a '#5 starter,' that's fine, but whatever he gets labelled, he's been very good this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17%2cd


just think how much better we'd be with Wainwright (3 fip, 4 era) or Beckett (3.5 tip, 4.5 era) or Rick Porcello (3.6 fip, 4.6 era).

Offline PC

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I've never been a fip fan, primarily because of how it treats the biggest component, homeruns.  All homeruns allowed aren't created equally.  For example, the homerun Detwiler gave up last night, in the Crawford Boxes shouldn't count equally as a homer given up to centerfield at Petco Park.  Also, who hits the homerun.  A homerun given up to Steve Lombardozzi should hurt a pitcher more than one given up to Adam Dunn.

Offline GMUNat

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Since 1990, 3 starting pitchers have had a post-90 career ERA lower than 3 - Jose Rijo, Clayton Kershaw, and Pedro Martinez.  When you add in his pre-1990 career, Rijo drops from the list. 
Stephen Strasburg: 2.79 Career ERA. 2.79<3.00

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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not a qualified pitcher due to his lack of innings.

Offline tomterp

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not a qualified pitcher due to his lack of innings.

Stras:  "Come and see the violence inherent in the system. Help! Help! I'm being repressed!"

Offline Tyler Durden

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not a qualified pitcher due to his lack of innings.

Quit making excuses for him and quit babying him.  :whip:

Offline blue911

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not a qualified pitcher due to his lack of innings.

He's bouncing around the minimum required. Today he qualifies by Friday he'll be below

Offline mimontero88

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Exactly.... we have three #1 starters, two #3 starters, and a #5 starter in AAA. A lot better than the years when we had five #5 starters.

Now you are opening a whole other can of worms.  I would say a guy with a career ERA of 3.99 is better than a #5 starter.  Just saying.