Author Topic: Can we step back from the ledge, please?  (Read 5871 times)

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Online DPMOmaha

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #175: September 17, 2012, 10:35:33 AM »
Is it wrong to be unhappy about being swept by our only competitor for the division in the final series of the season?  I'm not going to go nuts and say we lose the division, but there's absolutely nothing good to take away from this series, and I don't think there's anything wrong with being pissed about it.

I haven't seen anyone overly thrilled by what happened over the weekend.  But bridge jumping at this point is probably a bit of an overreaction as well.

Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #176: September 17, 2012, 10:38:50 AM »
Record needed for the next 15 games to win Division Title


If Nats Win   Then Braves need

0                  6
1                  7
2                  8
3                  9
4                 10
5                 11
6                 12
7                 13
8                 14
9                 15

Online Slateman

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #177: September 17, 2012, 10:45:29 AM »
Record needed for the next 15 games to win Division Title


If Nats Win   Then Braves need

0                  6
1                  7
2                  8
4                  9
5                 10
6                 11
7                 12
8                 13
9                 14
10               15

NIce work with the math

Offline mitlen

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Online Slateman

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #179: September 17, 2012, 10:50:02 AM »
Excel is your friend!

:thumbs:

Well, now the mystery is gone. Like any good magician, never give away the secret.


Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #180: September 17, 2012, 10:50:57 AM »
Well, now the mystery is gone. Like any good magician, never give away the secret.



LOL

My first table was actually wrong because I skipped "3" on the Nats win column, it's correct now

Offline PebbleBall

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #181: September 17, 2012, 11:00:56 AM »
Record needed for the next 15 games to win Division Title

Since the Braves have 15 left and the Nats 16, here's the minimum the Nats need.
Nats            Braves

16-0             E
15-1             E
14-2             E
13-3             E
12-4             E
11-5             E
10-6            14-1
9-7              13-2
8-8              12-3
7-9              11-4
6-10            10-5
5-11            9-6
4-12            8-7
3-13            7-8
2-14            6-9
1-15            5-10
0-16            4-11

Offline jhuterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #182: September 17, 2012, 11:03:31 AM »
Is 35% really almost half?  You sound like how my ex wife used to talk about money.

3 is pretty damn close to 4.25 so yes it is almost half.

Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #183: September 17, 2012, 11:06:46 AM »
3 is pretty damn close to 4.25 so yes it is almost half.

1.25 is a 3 game swing (out of 15) - no, it's not close

Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #184: September 17, 2012, 11:07:31 AM »
Since the Braves have 15 left and the Nats 16, here's the minimum the Nats need.
Nats            Braves

16-0             E
15-1             E
14-2             E
13-3             E
12-4             E
11-5             E
10-6            14-1
9-7              13-2
8-8              12-3
7-9              11-4
6-10            10-5
5-11            9-6
4-12            8-7
3-13            7-8
2-14            6-9
1-15            5-10
0-16            4-11

I like yours better

Offline mitlen

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #185: September 17, 2012, 11:11:50 AM »
I like yours better

Your's is much easier.   All I wanna know is how many have we won.    The rest will take care of itself.

Offline PebbleBall

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #186: September 17, 2012, 11:12:55 AM »
I haven't seen anyone overly thrilled by what happened over the weekend.  But bridge jumping at this point is probably a bit of an overreaction as well.

Ok, it might be a little bit bridge jumping, but it's not totally unfounded.  Obviously it would take a collapse, but the thing that scares me is that when you look at the ingredients for a collapse they include things like getting swept by the team in pursuit, facing unbalanced schedules, and suffering injuries to key players.

Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #187: September 17, 2012, 11:17:33 AM »
Ok, it might be a little bit bridge jumping, but it's not totally unfounded.  Obviously it would take a collapse, but the thing that scares me is that when you look at the ingredients for a collapse they include things like getting swept by the team in pursuit, facing unbalanced schedules, and suffering injuries to key players.

Meh, Braves just got swept in Milwaukee and looked really bad doing it. And it's not like the Dodgers come in here like a house of fire, they're 3-7 in their last 10. 

Spending the weekend watching the impossibly awful Atlanta fans doing the impossibly awful Tomahawk Chop was pretty much zero fun.

But the Nats still have the best record in baseball, still have the #1 overall seed and are still in very good position in the division.

Chances are we won't even see Atlanta again this year. Suits me fine. Top 5 terrible sports town, easy

Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #188: September 17, 2012, 11:18:25 AM »
Your's is much easier.   All I wanna know is how many have we won.    The rest will take care of itself.


I think mine's wrong :(

Excel is not my friend

Offline jhuterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #189: September 17, 2012, 11:20:57 AM »
1.25 is a 3 game swing (out of 15) - no, it's not close

In terms of a lead 1.25 is a two and a half game swing.  Sorry, IMO 3 is close to 4.25

Offline mitlen

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #190: September 17, 2012, 11:22:24 AM »
I think mine's wrong :(

Excel is not my friend

I would have never known.   Ignorance is my friend.   :P

Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #191: September 17, 2012, 11:23:03 AM »
Ok Magic Number for the Division is ELEVEN

So ...

If Nats win    Then Braves need

0                  5
1                  6
2                  7
3                  8
4                  9
5                  10
6                  11
7                  12
8                  13
9                  14
10                 15
11                 E
12                 E
13                 E
14                 E
15                 E
16                 E

Offline jhuterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #192: September 17, 2012, 11:24:40 AM »
Ok, it might be a little bit bridge jumping, but it's not totally unfounded.  Obviously it would take a collapse, but the thing that scares me is that when you look at the ingredients for a collapse they include things like getting swept by the team in pursuit, facing unbalanced schedules, and suffering injuries to key players.

Exactly.  Those who are dismissing the sweep as a non-event may be taking it a bit lightly.  I just don't have a good feeling about this.  Hopefully things get back on track against LA.

Offline mitlen

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #193: September 17, 2012, 11:25:15 AM »
Ok Magic Number for the Division is ELEVEN

So ...

If Nats win    Then Braves need

0                  5
1                  6
2                  7
3                  8
4                  9
5                  10
6                  11
7                  12
8                  13
9                  14
10                 15
11                 E
12                 E
13                 E
14                 E
15                 E
16                 E

This is like studying for a final your buddy stole and the prof switches it up.    No wonder I got drafted   ....

Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #194: September 17, 2012, 11:26:09 AM »
In terms of a lead 1.25 is a two and a half game swing.  Sorry, IMO 3 is close to 4.25

There is no such thing as 1/2 a game. The Braves would still need to WIN that 3rd game.


Three games out of 30 is kinda close (10%) Three games out of 15 (20%) - not so much

Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #195: September 17, 2012, 11:38:09 AM »
Exactly.  Those who are dismissing the sweep as a non-event may be taking it a bit lightly.  I just don't have a good feeling about this.  Hopefully things get back on track against LA.


Nobody is dismissing the sweep as a non-event. We're simply saying that the Nats are still in very good position in the division. And that it would really, really take a lot for that to change.

That's what being the most consistent and the most successful team all year has done for the Nats, given them some leeway.

Offline jhuterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #196: September 17, 2012, 11:40:08 AM »
There is no such thing as 1/2 a game. The Braves would still need to WIN that 3rd game.

sabermetrics
Three games out of 30 is kinda close (10%) Three games out of 15 (20%) - not so much

Noted.  Dead horse sufficiently beaten.  The Nats just need to step it up on this home stand and silence the pessimists (like me).  Been a DC baseball fan since the '60's.  I haven't come to terms with all this pennant race stuff.

Online wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #197: September 17, 2012, 11:43:07 AM »

Noted.  Dead horse sufficiently beaten.  The Nats just need to step it up on this home stand and silence the pessimists (like me).  Been a DC baseball fan since the '60's.  I haven't come to terms with all this pennant race stuff.


Have at it

This is  America damn it, you get to be as much of a panic monkey as you damn well please





Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #198: September 17, 2012, 12:21:54 PM »
Is it wrong to be unhappy about being swept by our only competitor for the division in the final series of the season?  I'm not going to go nuts and say we lose the division, but there's absolutely nothing good to take away from this series, and I don't think there's anything wrong with being pissed about it.

Yes.  You must pick one or the other.  You can't have rational anger - get off the interwebz now!

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #199: September 17, 2012, 12:26:31 PM »
Is it wrong to be unhappy about being swept by our only competitor for the division in the final series of the season?


Best record in baseball. ;)