Author Topic: Can we step back from the ledge, please?  (Read 6162 times)

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #75: August 12, 2012, 06:43:09 PM »
Again, the ledge is not the place to be tonight.

They we're going to win every game for the rest of the season. When you win so many, it's difficult to prepare for a loss but the loss was going to happen.  With absolute certainty, I can say they were going to lose again. 

And remember, it still was just one game.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #76: August 12, 2012, 06:49:15 PM »
Again, the ledge is not the place to be tonight.

They we're going to win every game for the rest of the season. When you win so many, it's difficult to prepare for a loss but the loss was going to happen.  With absolute certainty, I can say they were going to lose again. 

And remember, it still was just one game.

This post just screams  :glug:

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #77: August 12, 2012, 07:04:28 PM »
:panic:

Online blue911

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #78: August 12, 2012, 07:08:20 PM »
THE BRAVES WIN THE PENNANT THE BRAVES WIN THE PENNANT THE BRAVES WIN THE PENNANT. :panic:  :panic:   :panic:


Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #79: August 12, 2012, 07:11:39 PM »
Again, the ledge is not the place to be tonight.

They we're going to win every game for the rest of the season. When you win so many, it's difficult to prepare for a loss but the loss was going to happen.  With absolute certainty, I can say they were going to lose again. 

And remember, it still was just one game.
Agreed. A loss was inevitable.

If the Braves win tonight though :hang:


Offline Smithian

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #80: August 12, 2012, 07:23:48 PM »
THE BRAVES ARE SWEEPING EVERYONE

Offline tomterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #81: August 12, 2012, 07:24:11 PM »
Agreed. A loss was inevitable.

Assuming you mean between the start of today's game and the end of the season, agreed.

If you meant today a loss was inevitable, I'd like to hear your rationale.

 :shrug:

Offline Smithian

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #82: August 12, 2012, 07:25:14 PM »
Assuming you mean between the start of today's game and the end of the season, agreed.

If you meant today a loss was inevitable, I'd like to hear your rationale.

 :shrug:
BRUH, WHAT DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND ABOUT THE BRAVES SWEEEEPING EVERYBODY!!!!

:hang:

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #83: August 12, 2012, 07:27:12 PM »
Assuming you mean between the start of today's game and the end of the season, agreed.

If you meant today a loss was inevitable, I'd like to hear your rationale.

 :shrug:
This particular game wasn't inevitably a loss but the chances for a loss got higher and higher the more games we won in a row. At least the counter is now reset and tomorrow we can start a new streak.

They weren't going to go undefeated for the rest of the season. May as well have gotten the loss out of the way today. Need to take series in SF for an 8-2 road trip. Any thing less and Atlanta will be a game or so out of 1st come Thursday.


Online blue911

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #84: August 12, 2012, 07:30:22 PM »
This particular game wasn't inevitably a loss but the chances for a loss got higher and higher the more games we won in a row. At least the counter is now reset and tomorrow we can start a new streak.

They weren't going to go undefeated for the rest of the season. May as well have gotten the loss out of the way today. Need to take series in SF for an 8-2 road trip. Any thing less and Atlanta will be a game or so out of 1st come Thursday.



 :lmao:

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #85: August 12, 2012, 07:32:13 PM »
Watch out for the Giants btw. Trailed 6-4 today in the 8th and then scored 5 highlighted by a 2 out three run homer from Nats killer Hunter Pence.

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #86: August 12, 2012, 07:51:27 PM »
Watch out for the Giants btw. Trailed 6-4 today in the 8th and then scored 5 highlighted by a 2 out three run homer from Nats killer Hunter Pence.

Meh - Colorado gives up tons of runs to everyone, that's how they roll


Offline Evolution33

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #87: August 12, 2012, 07:56:57 PM »
I.like how Nats pitchnhg lines. IP in the next series

Offline tomterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #88: August 12, 2012, 09:28:51 PM »
This particular game wasn't inevitably a loss but the chances for a loss got higher and higher the more games we won in a row. At least the counter is now reset and tomorrow we can start a new streak.


This is incorrect.  The odds remain the same each successive game, because past results have no influence on future events.  Take the simple example of a fair coin, and assume it to be flipped so that it lands heads 10 times in a row.  What are the odds of head the 11th toss?  50-50, same as on the first toss.  Baseball is no different.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #89: August 12, 2012, 09:29:59 PM »
I.like how Nats pitchnhg lines. IP in the next series

 :glug:

Offline welch

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #90: August 12, 2012, 09:39:50 PM »
Note: on August 15, the 1925 Nationals won their 71st game behind Stan Covaleski, beating the Yankees 6 - 1, for a record of 71 - 39. Tonight, the 2012 Nats are 71 - 44. This continues to look like a pennant contender.


Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #91: August 12, 2012, 10:06:18 PM »
Note: on August 15, the 1925 Nationals won their 71st game behind Stan Covaleski, beating the Yankees 6 - 1, for a record of 71 - 39. Tonight, the 2012 Nats are 71 - 44. This continues to look like a pennant contender.

1994 Expos were 74-40 when the strike hit.  These Nats are shaping up to be one of DC's AND the franchise's best. 

Offline eddiejc1

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #92: August 12, 2012, 10:18:53 PM »
1994 Expos were 74-40 when the strike hit.  These Nats are shaping up to be one of DC's AND the franchise's best. 

Although I've read that if the '33 Senators record was extrapolated to 162 games, they would have a record of 105-57. That's an impressive record. It's too bad their loss in the World Series has obscured what a really good team they were.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #93: August 12, 2012, 10:22:13 PM »
Although I've read that if the '33 Senators record was extrapolated to 162 games, they would have a record of 105-57. That's an impressive record. It's too bad their loss in the World Series has obscured what a really good team they were.

Basically the same pace the 94 Expos were on.

Offline Gleason2

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #94: August 12, 2012, 11:17:49 PM »
This is incorrect.  The odds remain the same each successive game, because past results have no influence on future events.  Take the simple example of a fair coin, and assume it to be flipped so that it lands heads 10 times in a row.  What are the odds of head the 11th toss?  50-50, same as on the first toss.  Baseball is no different.

You assume that each game is an independent event, as a coin flip is, but I would argue that is not true.  Players can get injured in one game that can affect team performance in one or more subsequent games.  The bullpen can be worn out in one or two games and that makes it less likely to be used effectively for the next game or two, etc.

Offline lastobjective

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #95: August 12, 2012, 11:39:30 PM »
You assume that each game is an independent event, as a coin flip is, but I would argue that is not true.  Players can get injured in one game that can affect team performance in one or more subsequent games.  The bullpen can be worn out in one or two games and that makes it less likely to be used effectively for the next game or two, etc.

True, but does it mean that the more games you win in a row the higher chance you have to lose the next game?

It makes sense - you tire out your bullpen one game, you injure a player, etc. But it also works in reverse. Gio pitching a full inning, saving the bullpen probably increased the chance the next game being a winner. Players that are locked in or on hot streaks will help increase the chance of a game winning. And maybe an "injury" might even help produce a win - H.Rod being put on the DL certainly did that for us, as Werth has been fantastic these last few games.

These games flow into each other - one affecting the next. But just because you win one doesn't necessarily mean you'll lose your next, but certain things that happen in one game can affect subsequent games.

Offline welch

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #96: August 13, 2012, 12:47:38 AM »
Although I've read that if the '33 Senators record was extrapolated to 162 games, they would have a record of 105-57. That's an impressive record. It's too bad their loss in the World Series has obscured what a really good team they were.

Yes. I've been reading "The Wrecking Crew of '33", a book about the '33 Senators / Nationals...the author call them by both names, and Buddy Myer, who was mistakenly traded to Boston, announced that he's glad to be back with the Griffmen when the Old Fox swung a trade to get him back. This 2012 team is right on the same pace as the 1925 and 1933 Washington teams. Add our cousins from Montreal, and fits: this is a pennant team.

I saw the last two Braves / Nats games, and up close the Nats look stronger. The Nats pitch better, and have a better infield. They make the tough plays under pressure. I don't know the advanced stat, but I saw the '78 Yankees beat the Dodgers, and saw the late '90s win again and again. Brian Doyle and Scott Brosius are not famous, but they made the plays calmly and smoothly. The '78 Dodgers SS/2B combination (Russel and Lopes) choked on DP balls. Brosius wasn't an all-star, but he made the plays when a tiny slip would have lost a game.

Davey has managed this team to where every player contributes (farewell, HRod!).

Problems: where does Lombo play when Desmond returns? How can the Nats play TMoore, Bernadina, Werth, Harper, in the OF, and Moore, Morse, and Adam LaRoche at 1B?

Many of these players are young, but they are no longer rookies. They have played "full court" all season, often in irregular positions.

This is far and away the best team I have seen in Washington, and I started watching the Nats, calling them the Senators, on an old RCA black&white TV in 1952. (Yes, Mickey Grasso was a favorite, and I hit LH from imitatins Mickey Vernon. Throw and write etc RH)

The 1969 team was a surprise. This team is better.

Offline Gleason2

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #97: August 13, 2012, 07:56:06 AM »
True, but does it mean that the more games you win in a row the higher chance you have to lose the next game?

It makes sense - you tire out your bullpen one game, you injure a player, etc. But it also works in reverse. Gio pitching a full inning, saving the bullpen probably increased the chance the next game being a winner. Players that are locked in or on hot streaks will help increase the chance of a game winning. And maybe an "injury" might even help produce a win - H.Rod being put on the DL certainly did that for us, as Werth has been fantastic these last few games.

These games flow into each other - one affecting the next. But just because you win one doesn't necessarily mean you'll lose your next, but certain things that happen in one game can affect subsequent games.

You just made my point for me.  It can work both ways.  If anything that happens in one game can affect a team's probability of winning the next one (either improving it or hurting it), then the games are not independent events like a coin flip is.  While I agree with your larger point that merely winning games does not by itself make it more likely that some upcoming game will be lost, it's fair to say that what happens during those games to bring about victories can certainly increase the chances of a loss (or victory, as you pointed out) in the next game.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #98: August 13, 2012, 08:35:46 AM »
You assume that each game is an independent event, as a coin flip is, but I would argue that is not true.  Players can get injured in one game that can affect team performance in one or more subsequent games.  The bullpen can be worn out in one or two games and that makes it less likely to be used effectively for the next game or two, etc.

Oh, I totally agree with you.  But SF honestly believes, as many do, that from a pure mathematical standpoint that past events have an impact on future events, and it would be a disservice to readers to allow the myth to be perpetuated.

If you want to say the Nats are likely to lose a game because Detwiler's puking and the bullpen is tired, have at it.  Just don't say we're "due", because we've won so many in a row.  That's simply not correct.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #99: August 13, 2012, 12:41:21 PM »
 :rofl:  I am going to have to find that original probability thread...it was high-larious.  I think it was in the OT/Caps thread back in '09 or so.