Author Topic: Can we step back from the ledge, please?  (Read 12778 times)

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Offline Mathguy

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #100: August 13, 2012, 12:51:04 PM »
Statistically, baseball games are independant events.  The result of prior game(s) don't have any impact on the odds of winning the next game.

It's only the silly superstitious worries in some people that make them think there is an impact.


Oh, I totally agree with you.  But SF honestly believes, as many do, that from a pure mathematical standpoint that past events have an impact on future events, and it would be a disservice to readers to allow the myth to be perpetuated.

If you want to say the Nats are likely to lose a game because Detwiler's puking and the bullpen is tired, have at it.  Just don't say we're "due", because we've won so many in a row.  That's simply not correct.


Offline tomterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #101: August 13, 2012, 01:05:33 PM »
Statistically, baseball games are independant events.  The result of prior game(s) don't have any impact on the odds of winning the next game.

It's only the silly superstitious worries in some people that make them think there is an impact.

jinx fairy > math

Offline welch

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #102: August 13, 2012, 01:06:15 PM »
Oh, I totally agree with you.  But SF honestly believes, as many do, that from a pure mathematical standpoint that past events have an impact on future events, and it would be a disservice to readers to allow the myth to be perpetuated.

If you want to say the Nats are likely to lose a game because Detwiler's puking and the bullpen is tired, have at it.  Just don't say we're "due", because we've won so many in a row.  That's simply not correct.

1. I heard Chris Keith, CIO of the NY Stock Exchange, explain the great crash of 1987 or so. The Exchange found that if trade 1 was a "buy", there was a 75% change that trade 2 would be a "buy". And if trades 1 and 2 were buys, there was about a 90% chance that trade 3 would also be a buy. Keith's explanation? The big firms were using computer systems as probes to tell them to buy or sell. Often they were "arbing" the real stocks in NY against a futures contract in Chicago. With an automated execution system -- it's called the Designated Order Turn-around (DOT) -- firms can fire off orders, now, in .2 seconds or less. Key: all the systems were observing pretty much the same data.

That's an explanation of how one event can influence the next event.

2. No such connection exists in baseball. Teams might be tired from a flight, pitchers might have control-trouble, or batters might hit right at fielders. The only carry-on element might be team morale. Teams might put out less effort, teams might be fired up, but that effect is feeble compared to what the NYSE observed.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #103: August 13, 2012, 02:52:26 PM »
Statistically, baseball games are independant events.  The result of prior game(s) don't have any impact on the odds of winning the next game.


I'm not sure that I agree. Baseball isn't a coin flip- the results of the previous games helps you determine the probability of winning the next game- i.e. it's safe to say we have a better shot at winning our next game than the astros given each team's previous performances over the course of the season

Offline Gleason2

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #104: August 13, 2012, 03:56:20 PM »
I'm not sure that I agree. Baseball isn't a coin flip- the results of the previous games helps you determine the probability of winning the next game- i.e. it's safe to say we have a better shot at winning our next game than the astros given each team's previous performances over the course of the season

I don't agree either because the final score (and outcome) of a game is not the grand total of everything that said game included and which can impact what might happen in the next game.   Again, injuries, use of bullpen, starting pitcher (and, by extension, the starting pitcher for the next game), all had some impact on the just completed game and will likely have some impact on the likely outcome of the next game.

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #105: August 28, 2012, 09:00:43 PM »
Again, the ledge is not the place to be tonight.

What about tonight?  :icon_frown:

Offline Slateman

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #106: August 28, 2012, 09:11:32 PM »
I'm pretty much sprinting back to that ledge

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #107: August 28, 2012, 09:12:35 PM »
Of course you are

Offline Slateman

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #108: August 28, 2012, 09:14:47 PM »
Damn straight. If we're going to do this, we're going big!!! :lol:

Offline Mr Clean

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #109: August 28, 2012, 09:16:37 PM »
#1 for me, instill some plate discipline and start fining people for woeful at bats. 

Offline wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #110: August 28, 2012, 09:20:40 PM »
Damn straight. If we're going to do this, we're going big!!! :lol:

One of my favorite SNLs of all time was a guy on a ledge threatening to jump

The Cops are all there, trying to talk him down - Then out comes Giuliani. Don't jump! he says, it's a wonderful life!

Then Annie comes out and sings "The Sun will come out tomorrow" and Giuliani pushes her off the ledge

It was completely great

Offline MorseMythology

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #111: August 28, 2012, 09:35:00 PM »
Hi everyone!

Offline BigMeech

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #112: August 28, 2012, 09:59:04 PM »
Living on the Ledge.

Offline Dave B

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #113: August 28, 2012, 11:00:05 PM »
oh well, the braves keep losing too. they are still 5 back in the loss column

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #114: August 28, 2012, 11:01:52 PM »
oh well, the braves keep losing too. they are still 5 back in the loss column

they are up 1-0 right now.  lead is dwindling.

Offline comish4lif

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #115: August 28, 2012, 11:12:24 PM »
5 in a row? WTF?! I'm not on the ledge, but I have opened the window....

Offline Slateman

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #116: August 29, 2012, 12:21:51 AM »
5 in a row? WTF?! I'm not on the ledge, but I have opened the window....

I don't open the window. I just crash right through. EVERYONE FOLLOW ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1


Offline Smithian

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #117: August 29, 2012, 12:39:49 AM »
This is getting uncomfortable.

Offline jhuterp

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #118: August 29, 2012, 01:07:02 AM »
It's not just losing 5 in a row, this team hasn't even been in these games.  This team hasn't had a lead since last Tuesday's win against the Braves.  A loss tomorrow will make it a perfect 0-5 road trip w/all five losses to losing teams.  Not the kind of stuff that puts you in the postseason. 

This BS needs to end tomorrow (today actually).

Offline aussienatsfan

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #119: August 29, 2012, 04:57:25 AM »
This is getting uncomfortable.

We haven't had a nightmare losing streak all year, I want to give the guys the benefit of the doubt, but when Ricky nolasco shuts you out and your ace gets beat to crap its hard not to panic

Offline GMUTrkstar

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #120: August 29, 2012, 07:03:40 AM »
We need to get it together tomorrow b4 STL comes to town.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #121: August 29, 2012, 09:14:39 AM »
Every team has adversity at some point in the year.  We hadn't had a bad stretch until this point.  If we are going to go deep into the post-season we will need to face adversity and overcome it.  This is our test and this is our time. 

The Cardinals series is of the utmost importance.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #122: August 29, 2012, 09:23:03 AM »
The Cardinals series is of the utmost importance.

Sure is - and today's game is huge.  Need to get this stuff stopped now.  Need a big game out of Bambi.  Honestly, though, this is one of the things that Davey has been good at all year - getting the guys to relax when things get tight and tighten up when they get too relaxed.  I'm sure they're feeling it now - September 1, up 5 is a good but uncomfortable place to be.  They'll right the ship.

On the whole, I'd much rather be getting ulcers from watching them torture me with a lead than getting ulcers from frustrations of watching grown men who seem incapable of playing major league baseball.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #123: August 29, 2012, 09:27:37 AM »
Bambi needs to be mega piranha tonight.

Sure is - and today's game is huge.  Need to get this stuff stopped now.  Need a big game out of Bambi.  Honestly, though, this is one of the things that Davey has been good at all year - getting the guys to relax when things get tight and tighten up when they get too relaxed.  I'm sure they're feeling it now - September 1, up 5 is a good but uncomfortable place to be.  They'll right the ship.

On the whole, I'd much rather be getting ulcers from watching them torture me with a lead than getting ulcers from frustrations of watching grown men who seem incapable of playing major league baseball.


Offline wpa2629

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Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #124: August 29, 2012, 09:54:22 AM »
Meh - look at it this way - Nats have played so well for so long that they can lose 5 in a row and still be 4 games up in the division.

The Sun will Come out Tomorrow

Bet your bottom dollar ... :panic: