Author Topic: RE24  (Read 388 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline MorseTheHorse

  • Posts: 2001
RE24
« Topic Start: July 27, 2012, 02:09:41 AM »
It seems like the most natural stat to use to quantify the quality of a batter at the plate.  See (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=24&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=4%2cd) for the Nats RE24 leaders so far this season.

I'm curious about any comments people have about the stat, especially discussion of why RE24 is seemingly never discussed despite how natural it is.  Thanks!

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 16816
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: RE24
« Reply #1: July 27, 2012, 09:15:16 AM »
A definition:
Quote
RE24 (runs above average by the 24 base/out states): RE24 is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ RE24 for individual plays is added up to get his season total RE24.



the stat tells you what the hitter has done to increase or decrease the likely runs as a result of the plate appearance. It does not tell you how much those runs added to the likelihood of team victory.  That is WPA.  Intuitively, a single with men on first and third and no outs in a tight game adds more to the likelihood of a team winning than a single with the same base runner places and outs in a blowout, but both singles add the same run expectancy. 

One difficulty in using it to compare players would be that it is a counting stat. A guy who has more opportunities and who is above average is going to get a higher RE24 than a guy who is just as good (or maybe better) but gets fewer opportunities.  This might be the case comparing Adam LaRoche to Tyler Moore, for example.  Batting order too might make a difference.  Desmond as a leadoff hitter would be less likely to pile up a big RE24 than Desmond hitting behind some good on base guys, batting 5th or 6th.   This is why a lot of people who were down on him hitting leadoff thought his contact-heavy low OBP would be better used lower in the order even before he had the big jump in SLG after April.  With the jump in SLG, it is more obvious.

I found this article from Tom Tango / Tangotiger in Fangraphs, pulled from The Book, which points out that this is might be a good stat to judge relievers.  It captures the difficulty and importance of mid-inning stoppers who come in with guys on and prevent runs from scoring. That is, the rescue squad that comes in after an H-Rod appearance :)

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 16816
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: RE24
« Reply #2: July 27, 2012, 09:21:08 AM »
By the way, for pitchers, I think we would all be shocked at the bottom two for the Nats.  OTOH, it does explain the Stammen love.

Offline MorseTheHorse

  • Posts: 2001
Re: RE24
« Reply #3: July 27, 2012, 01:04:02 PM »
nice post JCA.  It seems to me RE24 takes into account the value of "situational hitting" and no other stat really does (except WPA, but WPA seems to be too dominated by extremely high leverage situations...)

From a comment on the fangraphs article you mentioned: "I grabbed the 778 batters with 5000+ PA from 1974 to 2012; here are the leaders and trailers in RE24/600PA – wRAA/600PA:

Jose Cruz +12.4
Terry Pendleton +11.2
Ryan Klesko +11.0
Edgardo Alfonzo +10.4
Steve Garvey +10.1
Carl Everett +9.7
Darryl Strawberry +9.6
Mike Piazza +9.4
Tony Gwynn +9.3
Derek Bell +9.2

Brook Jacoby -7.0
Chet Lemon -7.1
Tom Brunansky -7.3
Ivan Rodriguez -7.4
Lance Parrish -7.4
Rick Dempsey -7.6
Neifi Perez -7.6
Jason Varitek -7.9
Jim Rice -9.6
Rick Burleson -9.7"

This seems to suggest that RE24 is capturing something important other stats (most notably RC or WAR) are missing out on. 

Like any counting stat you can always start by looking at RE24/PA to improve comparisons.  But you also make an excellent point (one that I'd thought of before) that position in batting order and quality of players both before and after you also matters.   If your coming up with 2 outs nobody on all the time there isn't much you can do to add a lot of RE. 

BTW for relievers I do like RE24 quite a lot.  For starters it will very closely mirror runs allowed (earned and unearned) if I understand the stat correctly (I believe it just gives full credit to any outcome to the batter, meaning errors on the defense, or extremely good/bad baserunning by the guys already on base all gets credited to the batter).  So ya I think it's a great stat for relievers, for starting pitching I'm thinking it's not all that useful.  (Altho I would comment that if situational batting exists, one would assume so does situational pitching and hence some guys will always out/under-perform some of the advanced pitching stats that don't take into account situation)

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 2103
Re: RE24
« Reply #4: July 27, 2012, 04:06:03 PM »
Awesome stat, I'll definitely start using this more for relievers.

Offline MorseTheHorse

  • Posts: 2001
Re: RE24
« Reply #5: July 28, 2012, 10:22:15 AM »
Awesome stat, I'll definitely start using this more for relievers.

nice!