Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns, RHP  (Read 6362 times)

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Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns, RHP
« Topic Start: July 05, 2012, 07:41:56 PM »
I'd appreciate it if some of the folks who know good minor league data sources would add to this thread.  I'll get it started with some of the basics. 

Nathan Karns, RHP
born Nov. 25, 1987
Hometown - Arlington, TX
6'5" 230 lbs (OC can convert to kilos, AussieNatsFan can convert to stones (17?))
2009 12th Round, $225,000 (over slot) from Texas Tech

Prospect Rankings:
2013 WNFF.net - #7 Nats
2013 Baseball America - #5 Nats
2013 Fangraphs - #13 Nats
SB Nation / Minor League Ball (Sickels) - #6 Nats, B-
ESPN/KLaw - #99 overall

honors / awards -
6/18/12 - Carolina League Pitcher of  the week

Fangraphs page
baseball reference page
MILB page

Wears lucky #13.  Missed 2010 with an injured shoulder.  Only pitched  55 innings prior  to this year (all in 2011), but has exploded in  the Sally and the Carolina leagues in his first full  season with a combined ERA around 2.3, 80 hits and walks over 78 innings, a K/9 > 12 at both levels, and a K:BB of 3:1.  he has been a groundball pitcher this year (ground out to air out ratio of 1.33, improving at the higher level).

Scouting video from 2009
Note that he is  the rare Nats pitcher without the inverted W. 

His college profile notes that  he was born in PA and his Dad was in the Army.  Also spent his freshman year at NC State.

A draft review from Andy Seiler at  http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2009/07/07/draft-review-washington-nationals/
Quote
This was a pick I immediately identified as a potential steal if the Nationals were able to sign him. Karns has a plus fastball with a potentially devastating slider, but his mechanics are all screwed up, leading to some awful command. His pro body (6’5’’/225) is watched with extreme interest from scouts, but he fell this far due to the mechanics questions. He still hasn’t signed, and he’s currently pitching in the Texas Collegiate League, where he’s flashing his plus stuff and poor command.


2013 season - assigned to Harrisburg






Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #1: July 05, 2012, 07:50:54 PM »
regarding 2010, Sue Dinem at NationalsProspects.com offered this:
http://nationalsprospects.com/2011/07/thursdays-news-notes-13/
Quote
The injury was in his shoulder, that much I can confirm, per Byron Kerr and John Sickels. Whether or not he had surgery, I cannot.

Nearly every scouting report around his 2009 drafting referenced his poor mechanics. He’s been in XST and in the GCL for months now, so you have to think his mehanics have been “fixed.” Plus, if he’s been strong enough to go 4-5IP on six days’ rest, he might be ready for Auburn on his next turn (~7/19)

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #2: July 05, 2012, 07:54:58 PM »
inside nova had a nice write up after his 6/24/12 start that notes his shoulder injury. 
http://www2.insidenova.com/sports/2012/jun/24/nathan-karns-strikes-out-season-high-11-potomac-be-ar-2010952/

some nice quotes from him:
Quote
"I just went in throwing strikes, staying ahead of hitters. That’s the approach I have had the whole year, trying to control the at-bats, instead of favoring the hitters,” Karns said. “When I did put the ball in play today, my defense made big plays and got me out of [an early] jam. It’s really easy to pitch when you are working ahead and your defense is working for you. It’s a lot of fun.”
* * *
Potomac made it 4-1 in the second as Michael Taylor looped a single to right moments before Kevin Keyes ripped a 1-1 fastball over the right field fence for his seventh home run of the season.

Keyes came through again in the third, rifling a run-scoring single to right off Boruff, scoring Jason Martinson, who had drawn a leadoff walk. So Keyes provided the lift Karns needed.

“That gave me a lot of breathing room. You know you can throw the pitches you want in the counts you want,” Karns said. “You just try to keep damage control down, whether it’s one run or two runs while the offense puts runs on the board.”
* * *
“For the most part, my curveball has been a pitch that has worked for me,” Karns said. “Today they wouldn’t lay off it, so I kept going with it.”


There is also the Byron Kerr article noting he up to 93 - 95 MPH on his fastball.
http://www.masnsports.com/byron_kerr/2012/07/potomacs-karns-making-case-for-best-arm-in-organization.html?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #3: July 05, 2012, 07:59:22 PM »
One more article for now, from http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/07/under-radar-nl-minor-league-pitching.html

Quote
Nathan Karns’ first action as a pro didn’t come until the 2011 season, due to an illness shortly after being drafted and then missing all of 2010 with a shoulder injury. When Karns finally took the hill in 2011 with the GCL Nationals, he absolutely dominated hitters. He allowed only two hits over 18.2 scoreless innings in five starts. This is Karns' first full season and the 24 year-old is making up for lost time.
* * *
Karns has had the stigma of having command issues since being drafted. A lot of that stemmed from the two horrible seasons he spent at Texas Tech, where coaches tweaked his mechanics and had him throwing from a different arm slot. While pitching in the Texas Collegiate League the following summer, Karns seemed to quell those doubts about his command, earning him Baseball America’s top prospect honors out of the TCL. The 6-foot-5 right-hander does have a plus fastball that has the potential to top out in the mid-90's. He also displays a devastating slider and a good feel on his change-up, both pitches that will improve as he logs more innings. Karns has struggled with issuing walks (4.2 BB/9), but that can be overlooked with him only giving up 39 hits over 72.1 innings with just one home run.

Online tomterp

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #4: July 05, 2012, 08:18:40 PM »
Quote
NL Draft Notebook   June 9, 2006
 
by Kevin Goldstein, BP

Tenth-rounder Nathan Karns is a big-bodied righthander with a good fastball/slider combination, but he expected to go higher and will require some good cash to step away from playing college ball for the Longhorns.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5181

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #5: July 06, 2012, 01:35:24 AM »
heater is solid ... 92-94 w/ good sink

curve/slider depends on who you ask, has more of a 12-6 break but it's hard

change-up is pretty deceptive and plays it off his fastball

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #6: July 06, 2012, 09:54:17 AM »
Here's my typical first photo do-up for Karns.

Height:  6'5
Weight:  230
DOB: 11/25/1987
Hometown: Texas (seriously... there's no given birth city for him)
School(s):  Texas Tech University
Position:  Starting Pitcher
Drafted: 12th round in 2009 draft by the Washington Nationals
Nationals Prospect rank for 2012: #NR - Baseball America, #NR - Minor League Ball, #NR - Baseball Prospectus



2012 stats (Hagerstown and Potomac) - 6-2, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 78 IP, 109 K, 35 BB, 0.2 HR/9, 12.6 K/9
Career - 9-4, 2.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 133.1 IP, 168 K, 68 BB, 0.1 HR/9, 11.3 K/9

Offline mak

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #7: July 06, 2012, 10:33:44 AM »
Karns' father is a commander in the USN.  Karns was a heavily recruited football player in HS,  but decided to focus on baseball.   He did not play fall ball, as he was playing football until the last game of his senior year.   He was in the All American Games in 2006, seen here with John Danks (http://www.allamericangames.com/AABG/SelectionTour.htm)
He can dial to 97-98..but sits in the mid 90's.
  What few know is this kid can really swing the bat.    From perfect game, ( years ago) "..... Another thing he can do is really swing the bat. Karns showed us some of the best power potential of any player at the showcase regardless of year or position Keep an eye on this young man, he is an "06" with an extremely bright future in baseball. "
 In HS, and the summer league circuits, he was known for his bat , his speed and fielding skills.   It will be interesting to see if he remembers how to swing the bat...not many pitchers out there can do both.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #8: July 06, 2012, 11:33:53 AM »
Karns' father is a commander in the USN.  Karns was a heavily recruited football player in HS,  but decided to focus on baseball.   He did not play fall ball, as he was playing football until the last game of his senior year.   He was in the All American Games in 2006, seen here with John Danks (http://www.allamericangames.com/AABG/SelectionTour.htm)
He can dial to 97-98..but sits in the mid 90's.
  What few know is this kid can really swing the bat.    From perfect game, ( years ago) "..... Another thing he can do is really swing the bat. Karns showed us some of the best power potential of any player at the showcase regardless of year or position Keep an eye on this young man, he is an "06" with an extremely bright future in baseball. "
 In HS, and the summer league circuits, he was known for his bat , his speed and fielding skills.   It will be interesting to see if he remembers how to swing the bat...not many pitchers out there can do both.


good intel and welcome to the board :clap:

i heard an interview he did w/ potomac's radio broadcast team the other day ... he sounds like a real humble kid and that he understands the game really well. 

i'm looking forward to seeing his progress, especially when he joins Rosenbaum in AA.  from what i know of his stuff (and from watching limited video), his heater sits at 92-94 with good sink (but as you said he can dial it to 96).  I've heard different things about his breaking pitch, some say it's more of a 12-6 curve, others say it's more of a slider.  What separates him from a lot of other similar prospects w/ the same stuff ... his changeup is pretty damn good.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #9: July 06, 2012, 03:44:05 PM »
When I did the Nathan Karns google, I think I saw on an Ohio State recruiting site that he was someone they were after at linebacker. 

Offline mak

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #10: July 06, 2012, 11:45:58 PM »
"Linebacker Nathan Karns is not only the leader of the defense but the whole team." http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Drew-Cuffee-38539

Reports say he was a 5A All district player, 2 way player, both offense and defense.  Recruited by most Div 1 schools  for football.

photo:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/high-schools/headlines/20110719-ponder-in-minnesota-eager-to-settle-with-vikings.ece
"

Offline mak

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #11: July 06, 2012, 11:55:46 PM »
karns is #1 in the photo:

Online tomterp

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #12: July 07, 2012, 11:02:29 AM »
karns is #1 in the photo:

Great elevation!

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #13: July 07, 2012, 11:44:55 AM »
Inverted W!

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #14: July 07, 2012, 12:31:58 PM »
MAK - you know if the Nats tried to change his motion? That was the big issue for baseball scouts.  I have not seen him now.

Online sportsfan882

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #15: July 09, 2012, 09:52:25 PM »
Karns continues to dominate.

7 IP 3 H 1 ER 1 BB 5 K (Win) tonight in Potomac. ERA down to 2.43. Move him to Harrisburg?

Drew Storen pitched a scoreless 8th with a K for a hold.

Online Squab

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #16: July 09, 2012, 09:54:59 PM »
Karns continues to dominate.

7 IP 3 H 1 ER 1 BB 5 K (Win) tonight in Potomac. ERA down to 2.43. Move him to Harrisburg?

Drew Storen pitched a scoreless 8th with a K for a hold.

Yup, he should go to Harrisburg and Meyer to Potomac.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #17: July 09, 2012, 10:04:32 PM »
Doubt it.

Probably for the best to just let him finish in Potomac, start next year in AA and go from there.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #18: July 10, 2012, 03:25:55 PM »
Karns is awesome

Offline RD

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #19: July 11, 2012, 12:01:39 AM »
I actually think Karns should be promoted. He's has much success at Potomac as he did Hagerstown, in the same amount of time.

He's 24, will be 25 this off season. It's time to see if he can hold his own with guys his age. Get him up to Harrisburg, see where he stands. Send him to the AFL.

Could be ready to help the club quicker than anyone thinks.

Offline aussienatsfan

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #20: July 11, 2012, 09:01:28 AM »
Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity

 AussieNatsFan can convert to stones (17?))
 
[/quote

Sorry mate, we operate in kilos, I wouldn't have a clue


Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #21: July 11, 2012, 09:13:57 AM »
My bad.  I think it is english rugby players that are still described in stones and pounds. 

Offline aussienatsfan

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #22: July 11, 2012, 09:33:51 AM »
My bad.  I think it is english rugby players that are still described in stones and pounds. 

Yep sounds right.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #23: July 12, 2012, 09:37:33 AM »
JCA/Mods, can we amend the title to add ", RHP"?

Offline mak

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Nathan Karns
« Reply #24: July 13, 2012, 07:26:46 PM »
"I actually think Karns should be promoted. He's has much success at Potomac as he did Hagerstown, in the same amount of time.

He's 24, will be 25 this off season. It's time to see if he can hold his own with guys his age. Get him up to Harrisburg, see where he stands. Send him to the AFL. "

 I agree he should be promoted, however with this being his first year after surgery, perhaps it is best to be cautious, take it slow.   Per the age,  is age really a factor??  I think "arm age" is a bigger factor.  Fact is, Karns has less miles on his arm then most 20 yr olds drafted this year.