I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if that hill circuit has any teeth the race will be won out of a 5 or so man breakaway. Voeckler or Leipheimer, anyone? But if the pack stays together then yeah, smart money would have to be on Cavendish.
I'm kind of looking forward to the men's cycling road race. At this point, I'm familiar with enough of the deep rosters to have a decent idea of who can do what. It's an event more prone to unexpected winners, although the british cyclist Mark Cavendish is the likely winner if he is near the front at the end. One of the other cyclists who has been very successful this year, Peter Sagan, is riding without any supporting team (he's the only Slovakian). In contrast, Cavendish will be riding with 4 team mates to pace him, swap bikes in case of a flat, ride ahead so he can stay in the slip stream, and fetch food and water for him, including the top two finshers in the Tour de France. More than likely, 3 different countries will medal.