Author Topic: Nats and the 2012 Non-Waiver Trade deadline watch  (Read 28226 times)

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Online HalfSmokes

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So they also had bat skills and some knowledge of the strike zone.

You can't steal first base, as they say... and I think you're undervaluing the ability to reach first when you look at Reyes/Crawford.


Speed helps- how many singles do they get that are outs for an Adam Dunn, how much is their SLG boosted by legging out extra bases that are singles for slower players?



Offline Lintyfresh85

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In High A he did. Not so much this year. 24 strike outs to just 12 walks. Still walking at a 10% rate, but he's clearly striking out a lot too.


For the season he has 64 walks and 64 K's... so he's even. Still, that's very good, especially when he's hitting .346.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=598265

Online Slateman

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JBJ never should have slid as far as he did.

I wouldn't trade Morse or LaRoche. Our lineup is anemic enough as is.

Uh ... not really. It's average. Morse right now is a singles hitter and LaRoche is his typical .265 25 homer self. If Morse returns to power, then quite simply, he's a better hitter than LaRoche and we need him out of the outfield and at first base. So you add a guy who can get on base and score from first on an extra base hit and we get an offensive boost as well as a defensive improvement.

Online KnorrForYourMoney

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Not all luck. Aging effects quickness and speed much more than any other physical abilities. As we get older/stronger we develop those muscle groups which diminish of our speed/quickness.

My point was that Crawford and Reyes both possessed the contact hitting tool, and both had decent batting eyes.  It was bum luck that both of them forgot how to hit.

Online Slateman

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For the season he has 64 walks and 64 K's... so he's even. Still, that's very good, especially when he's hitting .346.

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=598265



Whoops ... mis-read fangraphs. thought that Single A was last year.

He has an absurdly high BABIP right now (like over .400). Even for a speed guy, I don't see that staying.

Who knows, if the Red Sox are dumb enough to trade Ellsbury, I'm definitely on board. We'd get him for this year and next year. After that, I expect Goodwin to be ready.


Online HalfSmokes

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My point was that Crawford and Reyes both possessed the contact hitting tool, and both had decent batting eyes.  It was bum luck that both of them forgot how to hit.

When is the last high SB guy (poor, but rough proxy for the type of player we're talking about) free agent to work out- Ichiro if you want to cobsider him a free agent?


Offline Smithian

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Can we get over Span? The guy just isn't that good. His OPS isn't very good and certainly not worth trading for.

We're perpetually worrying about our outfield situation but it isn't bad as of this season. Harper and Morse have two spots locked down and the third sport we have a more than serviceable rotation consisting of Tyler Moore and Steve Lombardozzi with Ankiel and Bernadina sprinkled in at times. With Jayson Werth on the mend you have a deep outfield if he starts hitting well.

No to Span. If a move is made for a center fielder then it must be someone who is a clear upgrade.

Offline Kevrock

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Uh ... not really. It's average. Morse right now is a singles hitter and LaRoche is his typical .265 25 homer self. If Morse returns to power, then quite simply, he's a better hitter than LaRoche and we need him out of the outfield and at first base. So you add a guy who can get on base and score from first on an extra base hit and we get an offensive boost as well as a defensive improvement.

It's not average for playoff teams, which is who we should be comparing ourselves to.

Anyway, I disagree with this trade.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Can we get over Span? The guy just isn't that good. His OPS isn't very good and certainly not worth trading for.

Why do you need a high OPS out of your leadoff hitter? You want OBP. Which, at .340... Span clearly has.

Online Slateman

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Can we get over Span? The guy just isn't that good. His OPS isn't very good and certainly not worth trading for.

We're perpetually worrying about our outfield situation but it isn't bad as of this season. Harper and Morse have two spots locked down and the third sport we have a more than serviceable rotation consisting of Tyler Moore and Steve Lombardozzi with Ankiel and Bernadina sprinkled in at times. With Jayson Werth on the mend you have a deep outfield if he starts hitting well.

No to Span. If a move is made for a center fielder then it must be someone who is a clear upgrade.

Denard Span is a clear upgrade over Lombardozzi.

He's top 10 amongst CFers in WAR, OBP, DRS and UZR. His OPS is .720 which is better than Lombardozzi's. It's better than Lombo's split against righties even.

Span is a clear upgrade. Oh and he hits .278/.340/.380 in the leadoff spot, compared to Lombo's .248/.295/.322

 

Offline Smithian

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Denard Span is a clear upgrade over Lombardozzi.

He's top 10 amongst CFers in WAR, OBP, DRS and UZR. His OPS is .720 which is better than Lombardozzi's. It's better than Lombo's split against righties even.

Span is a clear upgrade. Oh and he hits .278/.340/.380 in the leadoff spot, compared to Lombo's .248/.295/.322

 
Lombardozzi is a temporary player. When Werth returns, it's not a sure thing that we want Span playing over Morse, Harper, or Werth. Morse is making contact and earned the benefit of the doubt with his performance last year. Harper is the future. Jayson Werth was hitting well (OPS+ of 121) before his injury. Span just isn't a big enough difference maker to shove any of those guys to the bench.

If we decided to move LaRoche (which I would disgaree with), then yes bring on Span. At this point we don't have the prospects to trade for a guy who would possibly just be place-holding until Werth gets back in the lineup, which should be August.

Online Slateman

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Lombardozzi is a temporary player. When Werth returns, it's not a sure thing that we want Span playing over Morse, Harper, or Werth. Morse is making contact and earned the benefit of the doubt with his performance last year. Harper is the future. Jayson Werth was hitting well (OPS+ of 121) before his injury. Span just isn't a big enough difference maker to shove any of those guys to the bench.

If we decided to move LaRoche (which I would disgaree with), then yes bring on Span. At this point we don't have the prospects to trade for a guy who would possibly just be place-holding until Werth gets back in the lineup, which should be August.

Trade LaRoche, who is gone at the end of the season. Get something for him now.

Harper/Span/Werth is a great outfield. Morse gets back to first, where he belongs. We straight platoon Lomboardozzi and Espinosa at second. Offensive improvement, or, at worst, we stay league average but have tremendous upgrade defensively.

Offline Smithian

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Trade LaRoche, who is gone at the end of the season. Get something for him now.

Harper/Span/Werth is a great outfield. Morse gets back to first, where he belongs. We straight platoon Lomboardozzi and Espinosa at second. Offensive improvement, or, at worst, we stay league average but have tremendous upgrade defensively.
I would agree with that. Question is if you find a trade that makes moving LaRoche worth it.

Online Slateman

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Do we get  a draft pick for LaRoche if he goes somewhere else?

Online HalfSmokes

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Do we get  a draft pick for LaRoche if he goes somewhere else?

if we offer him enough money

Online KnorrForYourMoney

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When is the last high SB guy (poor, but rough proxy for the type of player we're talking about) free agent to work out- Ichiro if you want to cobsider him a free agent?



Still don't know what that has to do with my point that you miscast Crawford and Reyes as their only tool being speed.

Online HalfSmokes

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Still don't know what that has to do with my point that you miscast Crawford and Reyes as their only tool being speed.


Where did I say only? It certainly is their primary tool - do you think a defensive left fielder with high OBP, but no power is getting a $100+ contract otherwise?

Offline BrandonK

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Do we get  a draft pick for LaRoche if he goes somewhere else?

I don't think so -- it's an option, so there's no way to offer arbitration. Not sure of the new CBA rules, but I'm not sure if he'd even be eligible as a Type A or B

Online blue911

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My point was that Crawford and Reyes both possessed the contact hitting tool, and both had decent batting eyes.  It was bum luck that both of them forgot how to hit.

Ah... I was saying that there was more to it that that. Both are at least 3 tool players (I think Reyes is has far superior value) but the speed tool is temporary.

Online Slateman

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We should trade for Stanton :lol:

Offline Hogie

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You're not going to get anything of value for LaRoche right now and it would be ridiculous to remove a 25-30 HR bat from our lineup when we're contenders now. Not unless you then want to go get another legit bat, like Upton or something.

Also, look at his career splits. He clearly gets better as the year goes on. His numbers go up every month through August, where they peak. Everyone knew he's a slow starter and a second half player. Well, what if he puts up an even better second half than his first half this year?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=larocad01&year=Career&t=b#month

Offline Kevrock

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Trade LaRoche, who is gone at the end of the season. Get something for him now.

Disagree. We're playing for this season. We're buyers, not sellers.

Online Slateman

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Disagree. We're playing for this season. We're buyers, not sellers.

lol, no we're not. If we were playing for this season, we wouldn't be talking about shutting Strasburg down.

We're playing for the next ten years.

Offline aspenbubba

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Trade LaRoche, who is gone at the end of the season. Get something for him now.



Not necessarily true. I have read it is a mutual option or team option. I like him here next year.