Author Topic: Nats and the 2012 Non-Waiver Trade deadline watch  (Read 29595 times)

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Offline welch

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Watching this series on Rockies TV, it's clear that then entire franchise's marketing is built on Carlos Gonzalez. I suspect that CarGo is worth more to Denver than any package the Nats, or anybody else, could put together.

I think the Nats are more likely to bring up Corey Brown and drop DeRosa -- go young -- than to make a trade.

Online HalfSmokes

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Watching this series on Rockies TV, it's clear that then entire franchise's marketing is built on Carlos Gonzalez. I suspect that CarGo is worth more to Denver than any package the Nats, or anybody else, could put together.

I think the Nats are more likely to bring up Corey Brown and drop DeRosa -- go young -- than to make a trade.

That's probably the more sensible move

Offline nobleisthyname

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I think anybody who looks only at their home/away splits and presumes that you're getting the away player probably is underselling the Nats diligence process.

Just because Coors makes you a better hitter doesn't mean you were a terrible hitter.  To some extent most players have a better home vs. road split.  Coors just exaggerates that effect.  How much it exaggerates is a matter for a lot of detailed analysis. 

Remember the folks who argued that Gio was a creature of A's stadium?  Yeah, that turns out to be not quite true, eh?  Same, maybe, with CarGo or Fowler - yes, they look good at Coors, but that doesn't mean they suck elsewhere.

Except Gio's not pitching like the guy who pitched for the A's last year. His peripherals are much, much better. Unless CarGo/Fowler suddenly become different hitters then I don't see why you shouldn't be a little concerned looking at their away splits. CarGo goes from an MVP into slightly above average hitter (a little worse than Adam LaRoche this year) and Fowler turns into a left-handed Espinosa... yeah.

But I wasn't just looking at their splits. Both are below average with the glove. And while Gonzalez is an above average base stealer Fowler never seems to have learned how despite his plus speed.

Offline LostYudite

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But I wasn't just looking at their splits.

Didn't mean that to sound like I was attacking you - I think it's a little too easy to say "Creature of Coors" and leave it at that.  Sure, they're Coors-aided, but how much?  10%? 20%?  I think to say Fowler goes to being the left-handed Espinosa is a little extreme.

And as for Gio- you're right, his peripherals are better - but that's cos he's walking less people, not because he's suddenly correcting a flaw that had previously been corrected by playing in Oakland.  He's a young pitcher who's still developing and is taking a step forward this year.  Fowler and CarGo are both 26 or younger - they've got the ability to find another gear.

Not saying they will, but the stathead habit of implying that otherwise terrible hitters walk into Coors and get turned into magically great hitters seems sort of silly - same as chalking up to luck that which can't be readily found in stats. 

Offline Coladar

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LostYudite, I have to say your posts lately have been some of the most intelligent and well written this board has been graced with. You need to post more often.

Otherwise I agree with everything about CarGo. He's way too expensive, is getting a massive boost from Coors. Would he be an upgrade? Absolutely. Would he be a worthwhile upgrade? Almost certainly not.

Offline LostYudite

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Watching this series on Rockies TV, it's clear that then entire franchise's marketing is built on Carlos Gonzalez. I suspect that CarGo is worth more to Denver than any package the Nats, or anybody else, could put together.

I think the Nats are more likely to bring up Corey Brown and drop DeRosa -- go young -- than to make a trade.

This is a really good and often missed point.  Regardless of what we think of him, he and Tulo are the Ryan Zimmermans of the Rockies.  Hard to move.

Stand pat is ultimately what I think they'll do too.  Storen and Werth coming back are like major deadline acquisitions, don't want to upset "the room," etc.

Offline nobleisthyname

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I think to say Fowler goes to being the left-handed Espinosa is a little extreme.
Unfortunately it's not. That's how he hits away from Coors. I don't think he'd do that for a full season with a different home field but it's definitely something to be concerned over.

Quote
And as for Gio- you're right, his peripherals are better - but that's cos he's walking less people, not because he's suddenly correcting a flaw that had previously been corrected by playing in Oakland.  He's a young pitcher who's still developing and is taking a step forward this year.  Fowler and CarGo are both 26 or younger - they've got the ability to find another gear.

But that's my point. You'd be getting players that you hope will continue to develop despite having to pay a price that reflected players who had already developed. The Gio trade was a bit more reasonable. He was coming from a pitcher's park but he was coming to the National League which tends to pad pitching stats. The fact that he was young and still developing was just icing on the cake. Not many above average pitchers develop into bona fide aces and you can't pay for them with that expectation.

Offline nobleisthyname

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This is a really good and often missed point.  Regardless of what we think of him, he and Tulo are the Ryan Zimmermans of the Rockies.  Hard to move.

Stand pat is ultimately what I think they'll do too.  Storen and Werth coming back are like major deadline acquisitions, don't want to upset "the room," etc.
I also agree with this, despite how vehemently I may seem to be arguing over it. I'd prefer to stand pat myself. Like you say, Storen and Werth are about as good or better than anything we'd get via trade, and we don't give up anything for them (other than DFA DeRosa).

Offline Tyler Durden

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I'd love to get Fowler.  He may lose some homers by not playing at Coors but he'd still be a good player.  Good on-base skills and enough power to hit maybe 15 homers and 35+ doubles a year.  Good speed.

26 is not all that old.  Adam Jones is around that age and has only now become what people thought he could become.  Matt Kemp was good but he was not Matt Mother F'ing Kemp until he turned 26.

Offline nobleisthyname

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I'm just going to leave this here so people know what I'm talking about.

Fowler Road Split:
.209/.289/.372 (.296 wOBA)

CarGo Road Split:
.276/.329/.478 (.347 wOBA)

For the record LostYudite, as Colador said you're one of my favorite posters here and always seem to have well articulated and thought out posts. I just happen to disagree with you here I suppose.

Offline houston-nat

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I think ultimately they stand pat and welcome back Werth and Storen, but we might see a move for a backup catcher rental.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Fowler's 2011 splits were just about even.  .811 OPS at home (280 PAs) and .782 away (283 PAs).

edit - http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=fowlede01&year=2011&t=b

Offline nobleisthyname

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Fowler's 2011 splits were just about even.  .811 OPS at home (280 PAs) and .782 away (283 PAs).

edit - http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=fowlede01&year=2011&t=b


That is a sign for hope, especially since it was just last year. It's important to note though that his road splits in 2010 and 2009 were about as bad as they are this year.

Offline LostYudite

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LostYudite, I have to say your posts lately have been some of the most intelligent and well written this board has been graced with. You need to post more often.

Hate to see that.  I'll try to up my asshattery.  Last thing I want is intelligence and good writing on teh interwebz.  ;)

Offline nobleisthyname

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Hate to see that.  I'll try to up my asshattery.  Last thing I want is intelligence and good writing on teh interwebz.  ;)

Noooo!

Offline Tyler Durden

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That's true, but he's young enough that it may be the case that he's taken another leap forward in his development.  He was sent down to the minors I think last year at some point and when he came back, he was a lot better. 

He may not be an all star, but I think he'd be a pretty good player. 

Offline Kentucky_National

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I saw somebody in this thread mention trading Ian Desmond. That's just not happening.

Online BrandonK

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Desi's value is probably at it's highest.
He seems to have really put it together this season, but if he's part of a bigger package, I could see it.

Offline Kentucky_National

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Desi's value is probably at it's highest.
He seems to have really put it together this season, but if he's part of a bigger package, I could see it.

I'd be willing to bet we don't move him. We're not going to get his kind of production from any other SS in the league, and he's a big clubhouse guy an leader. Trust me he's not getting moved, and I'd be willing to bet my life savings on it.

Online BrandonK

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I'd be willing to bet we don't move him. We're not going to get his kind of production from any other SS in the league, and he's a big clubhouse guy an leader. Trust me he's not getting moved, and I'd be willing to bet my life savings on it.

I don't expect it either, but I wouldn't say he's untouchable.


Are the Yanks interested in taking Wang back? Do they deal for Lannan now? Lost both CC and Pettite today. Maybe they'll sign Clemens.

Offline Kentucky_National

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“I voted for him,” for the all-star team, Johnson said. “I don’t know any shortstop I’d trade [him for].”

That quote is from Davey after tonight's game in reference to Ian.

I just think it's kind of laughable to think that we would trade Ian. Especially as a first place ball club. It's hard to find that kind of production in a SS especially in the NL. I like to think we have intelligent discussion here at WNFF, and I just feel like people throwing out Ian Desmond as a name to be traded isn't even realistic at all at this point.

Online BrandonK

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“I voted for him,” for the all-star team, Johnson said. “I don’t know any shortstop I’d trade [him for].”

That quote is from Davey after tonight's game in reference to Ian.

I just think it's kind of laughable to think that we would trade Ian. Especially as a first place ball club. It's hard to find that kind of production in a SS especially in the NL. I like to think we have intelligent discussion here at WNFF, and I just feel like people throwing out Ian Desmond as a name to be traded isn't even realistic at all at this point.

WNFF wanted Desi gone all offseason...

He's having a great season, and I'm not saying he's going to be moved, but I'm not saying he's untouchable. If the right trade came along, the Nats do have the luxury of trading from depth.

Offline Count Walewski

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Rizzo is probably thinking more about the next few years, rather than this year.

Offline cmdterps44

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Rizzo is probably thinking more about the next few years, rather than this year.

Thats always been his MO but its been executed in the worst ways... well sorta. Its mixed.

WNFF wanted Desi gone all offseason...

He's having a great season, and I'm not saying he's going to be moved, but I'm not saying he's untouchable. If the right trade came along, the Nats do have the luxury of trading from depth.


People wanted Desi gone because his numbers were garbage. Its no surprise that people have changed their tune once he proved them wrong. I dont see what kind of package could pry him away right now.

Offline Obed_Marsh

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WNFF wanted Desi gone all offseason...

Glad to see you can differentiate between groups and indivduals and WNFF has its own genius to set us back on course.

Some people wanted a compentent major league player at each position. While some of the players will eventually work out, Rizzo himself admitted he was not attempting to put forth an Ok team. If you actually watch the games, this gets tiresome. Desmond got called up too early, he got written off by some, not the whole board, because of it but don't kid yourself by pretending anyone was wishing for him to fail or that you are some kind of superscout for having 20-20 hindsight.

Who do you think you are? Lorberdecker Dinkledork?