Very interesting, if the Nats win four more games the worst we do is tie for the last wild card spot. But if the Nats lose all 19 remaining, the Dodgers can get swept by the Cards,losing all four games, and still tie us. So the Magic Number is five.
It's actually 3 now after the Dodger's loss.
If the Dodger's get swept by the cards, and win the rest of their games, they have 89 wins, so we'd only need to win one more game to beat them out.
If the Dodger's sweep the cards and win the rest of their games, the Dodgers have 93 wins, but the most wins the Cards can get is 90, so we'd only have to win two games to clinch.
The worst possible scenario for the Nats, they split the series, and both teams win the rest of their games. Cards would have 92 wins, and Dodgers would have 91 wins. Since we only have to beat out one of those teams, we only need to get to 92 wins to eliminate the Dodgers. That is 3 more wins and we are in no matter what.
Granted, this would be a more interesting excercise if the Dodgers/Cards series was later in the year. As it is now, it will likely play itself out before it matters for clinching scenarios.