Author Topic: Magic Number: Angelos can suck it and like it  (Read 16755 times)

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Offline nfotiu

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I'd argue that our magic number for wold card is really 4 ( sort of).   Cards and dodgers can't both win more than 92.   So 4 wins by us, and we get the wild card.

Offline sportsfan882

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Proof Mike Wise doesn't know jack crap about baseball

Quote
Mike Wise ‏@MikeWiseguy
I don't know. Hamels. Lee. Oswalt. Halladay. That's a scary rotation in a first-round series.


Offline Truconfidence

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Proof Mike Wise doesn't know jack crap about baseball

HAHA Oswalt , that can't be real

Offline PebbleBall

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  • Now that right there is baseball.
Proof Mike Wise doesn't know jack crap about baseball



Tweet back "4aces?_r_u_kidding_me?" to Wise

Offline Lintyfresh85

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The same Mike Wise so many on here believed when he said Boras said he wouldn't sign his clients with the Nats if they didn't shut Strasburg down?

That Mike Wise? Well that certainly explains a few things.

Offline sportsfan882

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Quote
Amanda Comak ‏@acomak
The #Dodgers lost. The #nats magic number to clinch the first playoff berth in team history is down to 5.

Offline CALSGR8

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Ithought the magic number was dependent on the Braves.  I'm confused.

Offline comish4lif

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Ithought the magic number was dependent on the Braves.  I'm confused.

For the Division, the Magic # refers to the Braves.

For the Wildcard, the Braves are the front runner for that first spot, but there are 2 Wild Cards, so, the Wild Card Playoff Magic # refers to the Cards. Is it still the Cards?

Offline PowerBoater69

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For the Division, the Magic # refers to the Braves.

For the Wildcard, the Braves are the front runner for that first spot, but there are 2 Wild Cards, so, the Wild Card Playoff Magic # refers to the Cards. Is it still the Cards?

For the wild card it is the Dodgers. The Cards are the 2nd wildcard team so we would not be eliminated if they passed us.

Offline CALSGR8

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Ahhh.  Ok.  Thanks guys!

Offline loshjott

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I'd argue that our magic number for wold card is really 4 ( sort of).   Cards and dodgers can't both win more than 92.   So 4 wins by us, and we get the wild card.

That's true. Dodgers and Cards start a 4 game series tonight.  93 wins by the Nats clinches a playoff spot.

Offline PowerBoater69

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I'd argue that our magic number for wold card is really 4 ( sort of).   Cards and dodgers can't both win more than 92.   So 4 wins by us, and we get the wild card.

Very interesting, if the Nats win four more games the worst we do is tie for the last wild card spot. But if the Nats lose all 19 remaining, the Dodgers can get swept by the Cards,losing all four games, and still tie us. So the Magic Number is five.

Offline nfotiu

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Very interesting, if the Nats win four more games the worst we do is tie for the last wild card spot. But if the Nats lose all 19 remaining, the Dodgers can get swept by the Cards,losing all four games, and still tie us. So the Magic Number is five.
It's actually 3 now after the Dodger's loss.

If the Dodger's get swept by the cards, and win the rest of their games, they have 89 wins, so we'd only need to win one more game to beat them out.

If the Dodger's sweep the cards and win the rest of their games, the Dodgers have 93 wins, but the most wins the Cards can get is 90, so we'd only have to win two games to clinch.

The worst possible scenario for the Nats, they split the series, and both teams win the rest of their games.  Cards would have 92 wins, and Dodgers would have 91 wins.  Since we only have to beat out one of those teams, we only need to get to 92 wins to eliminate the Dodgers.  That is 3 more wins and we are in no matter what.

Granted, this would be a more interesting excercise if the Dodgers/Cards series was later in the year.  As it is now, it will likely play itself out before it matters for clinching scenarios.

Offline PowerBoater69

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If the Dodger's get swept by the cards, and win the rest of their games, they have 89 wins, so we'd only need to win one more game to beat them out.

That's the five, four loses to the Cards and one win by the Nats.


Offline nfotiu

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That's the five, four loses to the Cards and one win by the Nats.



Back to my point about this being a silly discussion because the series is this weekend.  But, for arguments sake.  Say the entire Cards/Dodgers series gets rained out and re-scheduled for later in the year.  All we have to do is sweep the 3 games against the braves and we've clinched.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Back to my point about this being a silly discussion because the series is this weekend.  But, for arguments sake.  Say the entire Cards/Dodgers series gets rained out and re-scheduled for later in the year.  All we have to do is sweep the 3 games against the braves and we've clinched.

That would mean that the Nats clinch at home, which would be nice.

Offline 114D

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The worst possible scenario for the Nats, they split the series, and both teams win the rest of their games.  Cards would have 92 wins, and Dodgers would have 91 wins.  Since we only have to beat out one of those teams, we only need to get to 92 wins to eliminate the Dodgers.  That is 3 more wins and we are in no matter what.

The Pirates can still get 92 wins.  As of now, we'd need 93 to clinch.  That number will decline rapidly though, very soon.

Offline PC

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That's the five, four loses to the Cards and one win by the Nats.



Not necessarily. If the Dodgers were to get swept, one of the other teams, Pittsburgh or even Philadelphia or Milwaukee could move ahead of them to the top non-wild card team position so the magic number would then be calculated using their record instead of the Dodgers.

Or they could sweep the Cardinals and push them down to the top non-wild card team position, making the Cardinals record the one used to calculate the magic number.

Offline nfotiu

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The Pirates can still get 92 wins.  As of now, we'd need 93 to clinch.  That number will decline rapidly though, very soon.

Good point, Pirates were irrelevant until the Dodgers lost last night.  I forgot about them.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Not necessarily. If the Dodgers were to get swept, one of the other teams, Pittsburgh or even Philadelphia or Milwaukee could move ahead of them to the top non-wild card team position so the magic number would then be calculated using their record instead of the Dodgers.

But those teams already have a magic number of four or lower.

Please leave the Magic Number computations to PowerBoater69.

Offline Hogie

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I think we should just tank all 4 against the Brewers just to make it all more interesting (for everyone else)

Offline wpa2629

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Ok, so what's our LOWEST magic number to clinch a post season ??

Offline OldChelsea

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Good point, Pirates were irrelevant until the Dodgers lost last night.  I forgot about them.

Easy to do since they pretty much went off a cliff some time ago - they're in the race only because of all those wins they had earlier. In fact, they're only two games over .500 right now (72-70) and a 20th consecutive losing season is well within reach.

Offline zoom

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Dang, i'd love to switch remaining schedules with the Braves.

Offline nfotiu

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I did up some clinching scenarios, hope they are right.  Sunday is really the first realistic chance to clinch.  Monday or Tuesday night would be most likely:

To clinch on the following day:

Friday:
impossible

Saturday:
Nats win first 2 against Braves
and
Dodger's lose first 3 games to Cards
and
Pittsburg loses first 2 against the cubs
and
Brewers and Phillies each lose a game.

Sunday:
Nats sweep the Braves and Pittsburg loses one game.
or

Nats go 2-1 against the Braves
and
Dodgers lose at least 3 games or Dodgers win all 4
and
Pittsburg loses 2 more games
and
Brewers and Phillies each lose 1 more game.

Monday:
Nats win next 4 games

or Nats go 3-1 and Pittsburg loses one game

or Nats go 2-2
and Pittsburg loses 2 more games
and Brewers and Phillies each lose 1 more
and Dodgers lose at least 3 or Cards lose at least 4.

or Nats go 1-3
and Pittsburg loses 3 more games
and Brewers and Phillies each lose 2 more
and Dodgers lose at least 4 or Cards lose at least 5.


Tuesday:
Nats go 4-1

or Nats go 3-2 and Pittsburg loses one game

or Nats go 2-3
and Pittsburg loses 2 more games
and Brewers and Phillies each lose 1 more
and Dodgers lose at least 3 or Cards lose at least 4.

or Nats go 1-4
and Pittsburg loses 3 more games
and Brewers and Phillies each lose 2 more
and Dodgers lose at least 4 or Cards lose at least 5.