Author Topic: Magic Number: Angelos can suck it and like it  (Read 16994 times)

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Offline imref

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Re: That Magic Number: 49
« Reply #150: August 08, 2012, 11:15:05 AM »
i think we're at 46 now.

Offline markfnc

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Re: That Magic Number: 49
« Reply #151: August 08, 2012, 03:15:45 PM »
How many wins to take NL East? 

I am guessing 95, so we need to go 28-24 the rest of the way.

What do you think?

Offline Clever

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Re: That Magic Number: 49
« Reply #152: August 09, 2012, 08:18:44 PM »
i think we're at 46 now.
48 for division.

Offline LostYudite

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Re: That Magic Number: 47 (43 WC)
« Reply #153: August 10, 2012, 05:08:23 PM »
So now we're at 46? or 45?  I admit, I don't really get how the "magic number" works until it gets to be under 10.  We're up 4.5 with 49 games to play.  The Braves have 50 left.  If we won 45 games, aside from finishing with 114 wins, which would be pretty damned cool, we'd force the Braves to go 50-0 to tie, so that makes our magic number 45, right?  Any combination of 45 Nats wins or Braves losses?

Ah, who cares.  Just win.

Offline Smithian

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Re: That Magic Number: 47 (43 WC)
« Reply #154: August 10, 2012, 05:11:28 PM »
Any combination of 45 Nats wins or Braves losses?
Yup!

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: That Magic Number: 47 (43 WC)
« Reply #155: August 10, 2012, 07:13:47 PM »
Yup!

Um, I don't think the mets fins or fish have technically been eliminated yet

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: That Magic Number: 46 (42 WC)
« Reply #156: August 11, 2012, 09:16:04 AM »
So now we're at 46? or 45?  I admit, I don't really get how the "magic number" works until it gets to be under 10.  We're up 4.5 with 49 games to play.  The Braves have 50 left.  If we won 45 games, aside from finishing with 114 wins, which would be pretty damned cool, we'd force the Braves to go 50-0 to tie, so that makes our magic number 45, right?  Any combination of 45 Nats wins or Braves losses?

Ah, who cares.  Just win.


Of course, LY, we have 6 head to head games with the Braves, so it impossible for them to go undefeated and us to have only 4 losses. 

Simple way to calculate the basic magic number is 163 - (your wins + their losses).  Right now, that is 163 - (70 + 47), or 46.  Any combo of 46 nats wins and braves losses clinches the division.   The MLB standings page tracks this as the E#. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_standings

Back to Nats / Braves - if we have 4 losses, that means we've beaten the Braves twice because we have 6 head to head.  2 Braves losses plus 45 Nats wins means we clinch.  If we go 44 - 5, then Braves only have to lose at least one game to us, but we end up only reaching 45 our wins / their losses and have to have a play in game.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: That Magic Number: 46 (42 WC)
« Reply #157: August 11, 2012, 09:19:25 AM »
Um, I don't think the mets fins or fish have technically been eliminated yet

Haven't been eliminated, but the "magic" (elimination) numbers are smaller than the Braves.  Again, you calculate their number based on Nats wins and the Mets or Marlins number and subtract it from 163.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: That Magic Number: 46 (41 WC)
« Reply #158: August 11, 2012, 12:49:12 PM »
Just looked at the schedule. I believe we can/should go 29-20 from here on out (99 wins). To tie that, the Braves would have to go 34-16, which I don't think they can do. But I'd expect them to finish only 3 or 4 games behind us unless Kris Medlen regresses (2.37 ERA, 3.64 xFIP).

Offline tomterp

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Re: That Magic Number: 46 (41 WC)
« Reply #159: August 11, 2012, 12:52:50 PM »
BP Playoff odds at 99.1% this morning.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: That Magic Number: 46 (41 WC)
« Reply #160: August 11, 2012, 01:57:04 PM »
BP Playoff odds at 99.1% this morning.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/


I've hated those sort of odds for about a year.

Offline eddiejc1

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Re: That Magic Number: 45 (40 WC)
« Reply #161: August 12, 2012, 10:01:43 AM »
I'm getting tired of people who apparently think that the playoffs have been expanded and the two teams
that play for the wild card spot have both made the playoffs.


As far as I'm concerned, that's a play-in game. Whoever loses that game is NOT in the playoffs.


I'd rather not see the Nats play a do-or-die game to see if they'd be in the playoffs. I'd rather Atlanta go
through that. So the Nats should focus on winning the division title. As somebody told Queen Victoria at the
first America's Cup race, "there is no second."

Offline Sharp

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Re: That Magic Number: 45 (40 WC)
« Reply #162: August 12, 2012, 10:03:43 AM »
I've hated those sort of odds for about a year.
You don't even like them now?

Offline tomterp

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Re: That Magic Number: 46 (41 WC)
« Reply #163: August 12, 2012, 06:19:40 PM »
I've hated those sort of odds for about a year.

 :rofl:

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: That Magic Number: 45 (40 WC)
« Reply #164: August 12, 2012, 06:20:28 PM »
I've hated those sort of odds for about a year.

:lmao: very nice.

Offline eddiejc1

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Re: That Magic Number: 40 (34 WC)
« Reply #165: August 18, 2012, 07:51:07 AM »
Just wanted to bump this thread. The MN is 40, right?

Offline eddiejc1

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Re: That Magic Number: 37 (33 WC)
« Reply #166: August 19, 2012, 09:51:12 PM »
If we win tomorrow, not only will our magic number go down by 2, but we'll be at 76-46 with 40 games left to play. If we play .500 the rest of the year, we'll have 96 wins. If we s---- the Braves, then not only will our magic number go down by 6, but if we play .500 the rest of the year we'll have 97 wins.

Offline Clever

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Re: That Magic Number: 37 (32 WC)
« Reply #167: August 20, 2012, 09:55:28 PM »
I just know all we need to from here on out is go 7-34 and this will be the best season in Nationals history.

Offline eddiejc1

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Re: That Magic Number: 35 (30 WC)
« Reply #168: August 21, 2012, 05:45:42 AM »
I just know all we need to from here on out is go 7-34 and this will be the best season in Nationals history.

You mean 6-34.

Offline eddiejc1

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Re: That Magic Number: 33 (30 WC)
« Reply #169: August 21, 2012, 10:42:05 PM »
I just know all we need to from here on out is go 7-34 and this will be the best season in Nationals history.

Now it's 5-34.

Offline Smithian

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Re: That Magic Number: 33 (30 WC)
« Reply #170: August 22, 2012, 03:37:05 PM »
The time gets closer and closer...

This will be a great avatar, Minty!!


Online zoom

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Re: That Magic Number: 32 (29 WC)
« Reply #171: August 24, 2012, 10:14:53 AM »
28 now?

Online Minty Fresh

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Re: That Magic Number: 33 (30 WC)
« Reply #172: August 24, 2012, 11:45:31 AM »
The time gets closer and closer...

This will be a great avatar, Minty!!

(Image removed from quote.)


Sweet Jesus what have I done?  :lol:

That's the last time I make a bet in a cynical moment. 

Offline eddiejc1

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Re: That Magic Number: 31 (28 WC)
« Reply #173: August 25, 2012, 01:46:50 PM »
Just bumping this thread. Nice to see the MN go down by two the last two days, but this time it would be nice to see it happen because of a curly W!

Offline eddiejc1

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Re: That Magic Number: 31 (28 WC)
« Reply #174: August 25, 2012, 01:49:25 PM »
When it gets down to 24, should somebody create an Nats Advent Calendar? Maybe an image that gets slowly revealed with every Nats win or Braves loss?