Author Topic: Non-Nats Trade watch  (Read 5093 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #150: July 25, 2012, 09:11:25 AM »
MDS - as for Phillie's money management, they made a decision to push for a window when they saw the chance. I don't know precisely their payroll for the past few years in the future, but I'm guessing they accelerated their payroll growth enormously after the Rollins / Utley / Howard crew started to pay off in NL Easts titles.  They seem to pay top dollar by waiting until the free agent year for their pitchers, while they kind of paid loyalty bonuses to Rollins and Howard.  They aren't dumb on all their signings.  They got good use out of Ibanez for most of his time.  I think Utley was a bit of bad luck.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #151: July 25, 2012, 09:21:56 AM »
MDS - as for Phillie's money management, they made a decision to push for a window when they saw the chance. I don't know precisely their payroll for the past few years in the future, but I'm guessing they accelerated their payroll growth enormously after the Rollins / Utley / Howard crew started to pay off in NL Easts titles.  They seem to pay top dollar by waiting until the free agent year for their pitchers, while they kind of paid loyalty bonuses to Rollins and Howard.  They aren't dumb on all their signings.  They got good use out of Ibanez for most of his time.  I think Utley was a bit of bad luck.

For the past few years I've wondered if the Phillies will turn into the yankees/sox and try to spend enough to keep their window open in perpetuity- the Hamels extension makes that look like a possibility

Offline ronnynat

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #152: July 25, 2012, 09:57:07 AM »
Quote
The Rangers are one of the teams actively pursuing Johnson, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. They'd be willing to trade top prospect Mike Olt for Johnson, Nightengale writes.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/josh-johnson-rumors-wednesday.html

Why haven't the Marlins made this trade yet if the Rangers really are willing to do it?

Offline Tim Cullen

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Hanley Ramirez traded to the Dodgers
« Reply #153: July 25, 2012, 09:59:12 AM »

Offline CALSGR8

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #154: July 25, 2012, 10:34:35 AM »
Rumor has it Hanley Ramierez to the Dodgers but not sure of details.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #155: July 25, 2012, 10:36:53 AM »
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/josh-johnson-rumors-wednesday.html

Why haven't the Marlins made this trade yet if the Rangers really are willing to do it?


Wow, they should do that without thinking twice.

Offline spit

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #156: July 25, 2012, 10:39:16 AM »
Regarding the Marlins... do you think they jumped the gun pulling these trades? Do you think they could have worked things out this season and potentially the next two?

Offline OldChelsea

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #157: July 25, 2012, 10:51:14 AM »
Rumor has it Hanley Ramierez to the Dodgers but not sure of details.


Along with Randy Choate for Nathan Eovaldi and a minor-leaguer: http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/8197903/miami-marlins-trade-hanley-ramirez-los-angeles-dodgers

At least this gets him out of the division, if not the league as I had wished; unfortunately we have three more meetings with the Dodgers (home, 18th/19th/20th September).

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #158: July 25, 2012, 11:07:11 AM »
i am ecstatic that the marlins gave away such a great player and that the phillies don't know how to rebuild.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #159: July 25, 2012, 11:38:13 AM »
Cubs are keeping Dempster now and using him to get a draft pick. Hope Dempster enjoys not pitching in the playoffs.

Offline comish4lif

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #160: July 25, 2012, 11:41:28 AM »
i am ecstatic that the marlins gave away such a great player and that the phillies don't know how to rebuild.

The Phillies are not going to be able to keep Pence and Ruiz. They'll have a great rotation, and an old lineup featuring Rollins, Utley, Howard and Polanco (all overpaid for their production)? Meh, not worried about the Phillies anymore...

Offline comish4lif

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #161: July 25, 2012, 11:53:58 AM »
MDS - as for Phillie's money management, they made a decision to push for a window when they saw the chance. I don't know precisely their payroll for the past few years in the future, but I'm guessing they accelerated their payroll growth enormously after the Rollins / Utley / Howard crew started to pay off in NL Easts titles.  They seem to pay top dollar by waiting until the free agent year for their pitchers, while they kind of paid loyalty bonuses to Rollins and Howard.  They aren't dumb on all their signings.  They got good use out of Ibanez for most of his time.  I think Utley was a bit of bad luck.

$25.0M - Cliff Lee
$20.0M - Halladay
$20.0M - Howard
$15.3M - Utley
$13.0M - Papelbon
$11.0M - Rollins

That's $104.3M on 6 players. Add in the Hamels contract and say it's $20.0M for 2013. Add in small potatoes like $4.5M for Kendrick and $1.35M for Nix, and that's another $5.8M.

And the Phillies have committed about $130.1M on 9 players! They paid Pence $10.5M in arbitration this year, so, he either gets paid another $12M or gets dealt for cheap prospects. Ruiz made $3.7M, and has a $500K buyout. Can they afford to give him $4-5M? Can they afford not to with that staff? Victorino isn't coming back under these financial constraints.

Financially, they'll need to get creative.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #162: July 25, 2012, 12:17:58 PM »
Those guys are pretty old which means declining production and higher propensity for injury. 

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #163: July 25, 2012, 01:17:37 PM »
The other thing is that nothing about that changes over the next few years, besides the fact they'll have to spend even MORE money to resign Halladay (unless he pitches 225 innings next year and his 2014 option vests) and Ruiz (Phillies have a cheap option for next year but he'll be looking for one good payday in 2014 of probably 3/$45 million or so). Only Utley falls off the books.

So it's almost certain they'll be spending $130 million or so on Lee, Halladay, Howard, Papelbon, Rollins, Ruiz, and Hamels for the next 3 seasons.

Given the lack of talent in their farm system, I really wonder how they're going to remain competitive. It's all well and good to say they're going to save money by letting Victorino and Pence walk to save $20 million, but to replace them with what? No one's trading you two major league ready OF for those guys, and you don't have anyone in the minors to take their place since you screwed up Dom Brown so badly. You can try to save by letting Blanton walk, but again - who are you replacing him with that's cheap and replaces the production? Trevor May is struggling in AA, Jesse Biddle is in high-A, Julio Rodriguez isn't ready.

So let's say you get 15 WAR from Hamels, Lee and Halladay and 2 from Papelbon. Let's be generous and say 4 WAR from Ruiz and Rollins and 3 from Howard. That's 28 WAR, which makes them a 77 win team or so with replacement-level players around them, having already spent about $135 million.

Unless you believe Ruben Amaro is an alchemist and can produce prospects from nothingness, they're going to have to buy additional wins. Even if they get those wins at market value they're going to have to spend $180 million a year to compete for the playoffs. Not to be a perennial division winner, just to compete for the playoffs. $200 million might make them the favorite every year, but would still not guarantee them playoff berths with the future of the Nationals and Braves looking so bright.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #164: July 25, 2012, 04:10:55 PM »
Quote
Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton are good bets to be dealt and the Phillies will listen on Hunter Pence. They want multiple young big leaguers to plug holes at third base, in the outfield, and in the bullpen in return.


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/stark-on-marlins-phillies-dodgers-garza-twins.html

good luck with that- Joe Blanton sucks, and no team is trading multiple major leaguers to rent Victorino

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #165: July 25, 2012, 04:15:38 PM »
i would've loved to have pence, just no fit for him.

Offline comish4lif

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #166: July 25, 2012, 05:05:40 PM »
According to FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi, rival executives believe the Phillies will begin considering trade offers for left-handed starter Cliff Lee.

Lee has three years and $87.5 million left on his contract and hasn't been as dominant this season, and the Phillies need to try to clear some payroll space after committing six years and $144 million to Cole Hamels on Tuesday night. Lee would likely attract plenty of interest if the Phils indeed shop him. The 33-year-old southpaw has a 2.52 career ERA in postseason play.

Snipped from rotoworld.com

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #167: July 25, 2012, 05:08:20 PM »
Werth for Lee.  Lee makes more so it's a salary dump for the Phils.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #168: July 26, 2012, 07:17:57 AM »
He played with the Dodgers last night - it will make LA a more formitable pennant contender

Rumor has it Hanley Ramierez to the Dodgers but not sure of details.


Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #169: July 26, 2012, 02:05:06 PM »
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/orioles-interested-in-francisco-liriano.html

looks like the Os want Liriano

Anyone remember when he first came up, how together with Santana, and Nathan and Mauer and Morneau, they were going to be a dynasty, and how the twins were the model for every small market team...

looks like that didn't work out too well

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #170: July 26, 2012, 02:13:42 PM »
Some incredibly poor decisions on the part of the GM, as well as weird injuries, led to them upping spending and getting worse.

The big travesty was how little they got for Santana once they decided to trade him.  They turned down Lester, Crisp, Kalish, Bowden, and Masterson ( or, Ellsbury, Bowden, Masterson, and I think Kalish) holding out for both Lester and Ellsbury, and they turned down some huge deals from the NYY, to.  Then, the Garza deal was badly botched, and when they made a good deal (Hardy for Gomez), they dumped Hardy the next year for some MRs.  Their drafting has been pathetic, too.  Add in a staff of junk tossing starters and the injuries, and poof.

Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #171: July 26, 2012, 02:16:12 PM »
The extension to Mauer - disaster or bad luck?

Offline blue911

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #172: July 26, 2012, 02:16:33 PM »
Some incredibly poor decisions on the part of the GM, as well as weird injuries, led to them upping spending and getting worse.

The big travesty was how little they got for Santana once they decided to trade him.  They turned down Lester, Crisp, Kalish, Bowden, and Masterson ( or, Ellsbury, Bowden, Masterson, and I think Kalish) holding out for both Lester and Ellsbury, and they turned down some huge deals from the NYY, to.  Then, the Garza deal was badly botched, and when they made a good deal (Hardy for Gomez), they dumped Hardy the next year for some MRs.  Their drafting has been pathetic, too.  Add in a staff of junk tossing starters and the injuries, and poof.

Hey they got Matty Capps for a back up catcher.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #173: July 26, 2012, 02:18:00 PM »
Some incredibly poor decisions on the part of the GM, as well as weird injuries, led to them upping spending and getting worse.

The big travesty was how little they got for Santana once they decided to trade him.  They turned down Lester, Crisp, Kalish, Bowden, and Masterson ( or, Ellsbury, Bowden, Masterson, and I think Kalish) holding out for both Lester and Ellsbury, and they turned down some huge deals from the NYY, to.  Then, the Garza deal was badly botched, and when they made a good deal (Hardy for Gomez), they dumped Hardy the next year for some MRs.  Their drafting has been pathetic, too.  Add in a staff of junk tossing starters and the injuries, and poof.

On point here.  Bill Smith is a complete fool.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Non-Nats Trade watch
« Reply #174: July 26, 2012, 02:19:29 PM »
The extension to Mauer - disaster or bad luck?

8 years, $184 million, full no trade for a catcher who was already starting to break down? Chalk that one up to bad luck