Buy, Sell, or Hold?

[PowerBoater69]

We need a bat.  Tons of wins but too many close games, we need to add a guy who can help us win some blow outs.  Our outfield would be the obvious spot to add talent as I am highly pessimistic that Werth will be fully healed this season.  Plus, as many injuries as we've had we should expect that we haven't lost our last player to injury, we need to add depth.

[PowerBoater69]

The Nats seem already to have painted themselves into a corner on the Stras innings limit thing.

Why?  Didn't Rizzo say that there was no limit?  I expect Stras to be pitching in October.

[Hogie]

If we had the definite room for another full-time outfielder, I would go hard after Span this summer. He would solve the leadoff as well as CF issues and his contract is so friendly for the next 2-3 years. I just don't see how that works right now with Werth coming back and Morse stuck in the OF as long as LaRoche is here. But in the offseason, he should be our #1 priority. The Twins aren't going to contend this year, Ben Revere is actually hitting like a monster lately, and they just drafted their CF of the future.

Other than that, a Lannan for Dempster deal would be awesome if we could pull it off. And I also don't think it would take some sort of mega load to get the Greinke rental.

[aussienatsfan]

The Nats will not shut down Strasburg this year.

If we're in it at the end, Strasburg will be on the bump.

Not sure I agree, not sure it's worth it

[Baseball is Life]

I expect Stras to be pitching in October.

Wanna bet?

Rizzo and Davey have gone on the record numerous times as wanting him to stay at 160 innings or so, something similar to what JZimm did last year.

I would lose a lot of respect for this organization if they did otherwise. It would be compromising the future of the organization and its prize asset for short term gain.

[Lintyfresh85]

Not sure I agree, not sure it's worth it

Championships last forever.

[PowerBoater69]

Rizzo and Davey have gone on the record numerous times as wanting him to stay at 160 innings or so, something similar to what JZimm did last year.

Look, the media put that out there, not me. It probably comes from what Jordan Zimmermann pitched last year.  I don't have a specific pitch count in my mind, a specific innings count in my mind. I am going to refer to my experience as a farm director, as a player development guy, and knowing his body. In conjunction with Davey Johnson and (pitching coach) Steve McCatty, when we feel he's had enough, we're going to shut him down.

Ah don ah thin joo gno wha chu tawkin bou.

[PowerBoater69]

Championships last forever.

Right, and windows of opportunity always close much faster than you would ever believe.

[MorseTheHorse]

6,8,10 years from now at the end of the Nats era will be the time to be buyers to try to push for one last championship before our window closes.  To panic at "lack of offense" even tho there is no clear position that can be majorly upgraded seems short-sighted to me.  Let's just hold this year!

Unrelated, haven't Rizzo and Davey also said they may be creative with Stras to get him pitching later into the season.  Or did I just dream that?

[MorseTheHorse]

taken from fangraphs commentor and spot on: "The real reason the Nationals overall offense looks bad is because they had Ankiel, DeRosa, and Nady getting around 300 PA combined. Those guys aren’t playing as much now that Lombo, Harper, and Morse are in the outfield for most NL games." 

I'd add Tyler Moore into his second list FWIW. 

[Baseball is Life]

Ah don ah thin joo gno wha chu tawkin bou.

I could pull up a 100 interviews where he said 160 innings specifically. But I would have to give a crap about what you think.

[MorseTheHorse]

I could pull up a 100 interviews where he said 160 innings specifically. But I would have to give a crap about what you think.

challenge accepted.  Give us 1 interview. 

[PowerBoater69]

I could pull up a 100 interviews where he said 160 innings specifically. But I would have to give a crap about what you think.

Joos keeps sain dat boot joo keepsa reapliean.

[PowerBoater69]

challenge accepted.  Give us 1 interview. 

Earlier this year Rizzo said that there isn't a 160 inning limit, but now the GM is saying that he won't let him get to 200 innings, which I'm having trouble believing that they are going to shut down our ace at about the same time that playoff invoices are being sent out.

[GOON]

I still don't get why people want to see Strasburg shut down and compromise our chances for a World Series.  Strasburg blowing his arm out after going past 160 innings is a complete hypothetical.  Why compromise our chances for a World Series for a hypothetical? 

I mean, if you want to deal with hypothetical situations, what if Strasburg blows him arm out next year even after shutting him down after 160 innings?  What if Bryce Harper, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, or whoever suffers a freak injury and are never the same player? 

Right now, the Nationals' window is open to bring a championship to DC.  You never know when it could slam shut due to the hypotheticals I listed above.  If we're in the playoffs, Strasburg needs to pitch unless we bring someone in like Ryan Dempster or Zack Greinke to take his place in October.  We have a team that, because of the pitching, can win the World Series and we all know how important pitching is in the postseason. 

[tomterp]

The Nats seem already to have painted themselves into a corner on the Stras innings limit thing.

Because it's the right thing to do. 

[tomterp]

I'll be sick to my stomach if the Nats shut down Strasburg and they're in the pennant race. 

What have you seen that makes you think they'll do anything else?

That's the plan, it's the right one and they're going to execute it.

[aussienatsfan]

Championships last forever.

I understand that and I'll be over the moon should we get even close to a world series, compromising stras's arm is a huge risk. It's a massive dilemma and I'd hate to be the one who decides it

[GOON]

What have you seen that makes you think they'll do anything else?

That's the plan, it's the right one and they're going to execute it.

I doubt that figured they would be the best team in the National League when they decided to go with that plan.  If in late August, the Nationals are in the pennant race, it will much more difficult to shut him down. 

This could be the year the Nationals have a real shot at winning it.  You never know when the window of opportunity will close.  They can't pass this up based on the hypothetical that Strasburg will blow his arm out if he surpasses 160 innings pitched.

I understand that and I'll be over the moon should we get even close to a world series, compromising stras's arm is a huge risk. It's a massive dilemma and I'd hate to be the one who decides it

^If that is the Nationals at the end of the season, nobody will be nagging about the innings limit or anything like that.  It will just be the greatest moment in DC baseball history.

[Baseball is Life]

 

Because it's the right thing to do. 

Sanity. 

[tomterp]

I doubt that figured they would be the best team in the National League when they decided to go with that plan.  If in late August, the Nationals are in the pennant race, it will much more difficult to shut him down. 

This could be the year the Nationals have a real shot at winning it.  You never know when the window of opportunity will close.  They can't pass this up based on the hypothetical that Strasburg will blow his arm out if he surpasses 160 innings pitched.

The Nats are not going to ruin Stras to take a shot at winning it all this year.  There's enough evidence that increasing innings over prior years' efforts is damaging that few dispute the validity of the theory, though there's plenty of divergence regarding just where the line is.  It would be bad for Stras, and probably bad for the team in the long run to do that.  Just because we can't predict the future with certainty doesn't mean you don't use the available evidence to make the best decisions.

[zimm_da_kid]

sorry if this has already been linked but this is a good place to post it

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/nationals-in-need-of-a-bat-bullpen-depth/

[MorseTheHorse]

The Nats are not going to ruin Stras to take a shot at winning it all this year.  There's enough evidence that increasing innings over prior years' efforts is damaging that few dispute the validity of the theory, though there's plenty of divergence regarding just where the line is.  It would be bad for Stras, and probably bad for the team in the long run to do that.  Just because we can't predict the future with certainty doesn't mean you don't use the available evidence to make the best decisions.

ok so we dont' make him pitch 200+ innings this year.  What about all the plans to give him breaks here and there during the regular season so he can pitch into October?

[tomterp]

ok so we dont' make him pitch 200+ innings this year.  What about all the plans to give him breaks here and there during the regular season so he can pitch into October?

I'm not a fan of disrupting the rythm of the rotation just to spread out Stras's starts.  I'm fine with riding Stras as far as his innings limit goes and then adapting.  Picking up another starter or finding one within will necessarily be a bit of a dropoff but that's how it goes.

Note that innings taken from Stras now diminish our very chances of making the playoffs at all, if you assume a cap.

[MorseTheHorse]

I'm not a fan of disrupting the rythm of the rotation just to spread out Stras's starts.  I'm fine with riding Stras as far as his innings limit goes and then adapting.  Picking up another starter or finding one within will necessarily be a bit of a dropoff but that's how it goes.

Note that innings taken from Stras now diminish our very chances of making the playoffs at all, if you assume a cap.

Sure but if Pr{winning WS}=Pr(winning WS|make playoffs)*Pr(make playoffs), and Pr(make playoffs) is IMO maybe 90% with Stras, 80% with Stras spread out.  PR (winning WS|make playoffs) goes from like 15% with Stras pitching to like 5% with Stras out.

So back of the envelop, a strategy that spreads Stras out we win WS over 10% of the time.  A strategy that doesn't we win less than 5%.  Well over a 5% chance at a WS sacrificed this year.  That is one hell of a pricetag for "playing it safe" if you ask me.