Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP  (Read 33374 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 743
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #175: July 12, 2012, 09:04:09 AM »
High school pitchers are not to be trusted. Go to school kid.

Wouldn't that actually be a reason for him to take the $3 million now and worry about school later?


Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 15326
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #176: July 12, 2012, 09:17:34 AM »
Wouldn't that actually be a reason for him to take the $3 million now and worry about school later?



how confident were you about your future at 17? I'm sure he thinks he's going to UCLA, will dominate then go number 1 over all in two years

Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 743
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #177: July 12, 2012, 09:23:33 AM »
how confident were you about your future at 17? I'm sure he thinks he's going to UCLA, will dominate then go number 1 over all in two years

His goal is to get paid and be a professional baseball player.

If it wasn't he wouldn't have been drafted where he was and we certainly wouldn't be having this discussion about him signing.



Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 15326
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #178: July 12, 2012, 09:25:59 AM »
If that was his only concern, he would take whatever is on the table and jump at the opportunity to get his career started

Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 743
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #179: July 12, 2012, 09:30:24 AM »
If that was his only concern, he would take whatever is on the table and jump at the opportunity to get his career started

I didn't say it was his only concern. I said it was his goal.




Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 24857
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #180: July 12, 2012, 09:31:18 AM »
how confident were you about your future at 17? I'm sure he thinks he's going to UCLA, will dominate then go number 1 over all in two years

And if he has an agent, I'm sure that agent is telling him the same thing. On the other hand, his agent is probably showing him Matt Purke scouting reports ...

If this guy is as talented as some are saying, he will be the kind of pitcher coming out of college that you'd draft number 1 and be willing to forfeit a draft pick to sign.

But high school pitchers are all talent and very little projectability. For every Kershaw and Bumgarnner there are like five Matt Hobgoods, Chris Meyers, Phillippe Aumont, Blake Beavan, Chris Withrow, ect

Offline R-Zim#11

  • Posts: 1609
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #181: July 12, 2012, 10:54:21 AM »
But high school pitchers are all talent and very little projectability. For every Kershaw and Bumgarnner there are like five Matt Hobgoods, Chris Meyers, Phillippe Aumont, Blake Beavan, Chris Withrow, ect

Colton Williams, or whatever his name was...


Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 15326
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #182: July 12, 2012, 10:59:59 AM »
And if he has an agent, I'm sure that agent is telling him the same thing. On the other hand, his agent is probably showing him Matt Purke scouting reports ...

If this guy is as talented as some are saying, he will be the kind of pitcher coming out of college that you'd draft number 1 and be willing to forfeit a draft pick to sign.

But high school pitchers are all talent and very little projectability. For every Kershaw and Bumgarnner there are like five Matt Hobgoods, Chris Meyers, Phillippe Aumont, Blake Beavan, Chris Withrow, ect

Just look at the highschool pitchers taken first in every draft- the overwhelming majority are busts- since 2000, 2006 is the only big success

Offline Kevrock

  • Posts: 11435
  • Troll So Hard University
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #183: July 12, 2012, 11:10:18 AM »
What if he keeps growing, putting on more weight?  I see this more as a risk than an opportunity.  He's plenty big enough already, not too many 6'9" 275's out there succeeding.



Offline imref

  • Posts: 17775
  • Adam who?
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #184: July 12, 2012, 11:23:10 AM »
Jim Callis says the Marlins have told their first round pick they aren't going to sign him.

Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 743
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #185: July 12, 2012, 11:27:29 AM »
Just look at the highschool pitchers taken first in every draft- the overwhelming majority are busts- since 2000, 2006 is the only big success

Overwhelming majority?

Dylan Bundy might be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball.

Karsten Whitson and Dylan Covery didn't sign in 2010 and the next highest drafted HS arm (Mike Foltynewicz) is 10-2 with a 2.59 ERA this year.

Hobgood has been ruined by injuries but Zack Wheeler (taken one pick after him in '09) looks promising.

Ethan Martin is still a good prospect and Gerrite Cole was the 2nd HS arm taken in '08.

Jarrod Parker & Bumgarner were the first two HS arms in '07.

And like you mentioned, Kershaw was in '06.

How is that an overwhelming majority of busts?

Regardless, none of those prospects were considered as good as Giolito (pre-arm injury) coming out of HS.

Offline hammondsnats

  • Posts: 37353
  • LAC 8)
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #186: July 12, 2012, 12:02:27 PM »
wait are you really saying giolito is better than kershaw?

Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 743
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #187: July 12, 2012, 12:05:28 PM »
wait are you really saying giolito is better than kershaw?

Me?


Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 15326
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #188: July 12, 2012, 12:06:10 PM »
Overwhelming majority?

Dylan Bundy might be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball.

Karsten Whitson and Dylan Covery didn't sign in 2010 and the next highest drafted HS arm (Mike Foltynewicz) is 10-2 with a 2.59 ERA this year.

Hobgood has been ruined by injuries but Zack Wheeler (taken one pick after him in '09) looks promising.

Ethan Martin is still a good prospect and Gerrite Cole was the 2nd HS arm taken in '08.

Jarrod Parker & Bumgarner were the first two HS arms in '07.

And like you mentioned, Kershaw was in '06.

How is that an overwhelming majority of busts?

Regardless, none of those prospects were considered as good as Giolito (pre-arm injury) coming out of HS.



I missed Parker going through the list- that changes it to a little under  1/2  success rate (Parker Kershaw Floyd)- I think you have to cut it off at 08/09- some guys (Bundy) look good, but until they play in the majors I don't think you can call them successes

Offline RD

  • Posts: 1245
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #189: July 12, 2012, 12:06:22 PM »
wait are you really saying giolito is better than kershaw?

I dont believe he said better. He said more talented.

Which I really dont think you can dispute. 6'6, consistently mid to high 90's, reaching 100, with a knockout curveball?

There is definite risk with pitchers, not just HSers. But in terms of pure talent, Giolito is a cut above. Even Kershaw. Doesn't mean he'll have the big league success of Kershaw, just means he's got more talent. I dont think anyone would say Kershaw is the most talented pitcher in the league.

Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 743
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #190: July 12, 2012, 12:08:56 PM »

I missed Parker going through the list- that changes it to a little under  1/2  success rate (Parker Kershaw Floyd)- I think you have to cut it off at 08/09- some guys (Bundy) look good, but until they play in the majors I don't think you can call them successes


Fair enough, but you certainly can't consider them busts either.


Offline Glockypoo

  • Posts: 743
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #191: July 12, 2012, 12:10:14 PM »
I dont believe he said better. He said more talented.

Which I really dont think you can dispute. 6'6, consistently mid to high 90's, reaching 100, with a knockout curveball?

There is definite risk with pitchers, not just HSers. But in terms of pure talent, Giolito is a cut above. Even Kershaw. Doesn't mean he'll have the big league success of Kershaw, just means he's got more talent. I dont think anyone would say Kershaw is the most talented pitcher in the league.

Exactly.

No sane human being would claim Lucas Giolito is better than Clayton Kershaw on July 12th, 2012.

Offline GMUNat

  • Posts: 5223
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #192: July 12, 2012, 12:13:40 PM »
Just look at the highschool pitchers taken first in every draft- the overwhelming majority are busts- since 2000, 2006 is the only big success

2002 was a very big success for HS pitchers. Cain, Greinke, Hamels, Saunders, Kazmir. Of course in that draft of talented HS arms, it was the O's and Nats/Expos who failed to pick up a stud HS arm. Typical.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 18333
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #193: July 12, 2012, 12:26:10 PM »
Jon Lester was a HS 2d round pick in 2002.  Up until this year, you'd say that was an excellent pick.

Offline RD

  • Posts: 1245
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #194: July 12, 2012, 12:28:37 PM »
I think its ridiculous to look down on HS pitchers or write them off because of a high bust rate.

EVERY position, from every level has a long list of busts.

College pitchers are just as risky as HS arms. Look at the list of college arms that have been complete busts ...
2001 - Dewon Brazelton, Josh Karp, Chris Smith
2002 - Bryan Bullington btw, Zach Greinke was a top ten pick this year.
2003 - Kyle Sleeth
2004 - Phil Humber, Jeremy Sowers, Wade Townsend, Thomas Diamond
2005 - Wade Townsend
2006 - Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller. This was Kershaw's year.
2007 - Daniel Moskos, Casey Weathers. This year also had Bumgarner and Jarrod Parker taken in the top 10.

I stopped there, because some guys still could develop. That list of names doenst include names like Detwiler, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Prior, Tim Stauffer, Paul Maholm, or Jeff Francis who have all made the bigs at least, and had some level of success. Although none of them have lived up to their billing to date.

Certainly there are the David Prices, Verlanders, even Ricky Romero's in there. But there are FAR more busts among the college arm than their are successes.

Should we eliminate college arms from consideration as well? Should we write off their potential?

All that matters is who you think has the most talent and the ability to make the biggest impact at the big league level. There is risk involved with every single kid you select. College kids have injury risks as well. This list is just the top ten, because stretching it further would take forever. This list shows just how high bust rates are among arms, period. Its not exclusive to HSers. Discrediting Giolito's talent or potential because he's a high schooler is ridiculous.

Offline hammondsnats

  • Posts: 37353
  • LAC 8)
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #195: July 12, 2012, 12:33:31 PM »
Me?

not you someone on the first page. 

RD, k just making sure.  yeah if giolito becomes kershaw, i'd be thrilled.

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 15326
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #196: July 12, 2012, 12:39:57 PM »
I think its ridiculous to look down on HS pitchers or write them off because of a high bust rate.

EVERY position, from every level has a long list of busts.

College pitchers are just as risky as HS arms. Look at the list of college arms that have been complete busts ...
2001 - Dewon Brazelton, Josh Karp, Chris Smith
2002 - Bryan Bullington btw, Zach Greinke was a top ten pick this year.
2003 - Kyle Sleeth
2004 - Phil Humber, Jeremy Sowers, Wade Townsend, Thomas Diamond
2005 - Wade Townsend
2006 - Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller. This was Kershaw's year.
2007 - Daniel Moskos, Casey Weathers. This year also had Bumgarner and Jarrod Parker taken in the top 10.

I stopped there, because some guys still could develop. That list of names doenst include names like Detwiler, Mike Pelfrey, Mark Prior, Tim Stauffer, Paul Maholm, or Jeff Francis who have all made the bigs at least, and had some level of success. Although none of them have lived up to their billing to date.

Certainly there are the David Prices, Verlanders, even Ricky Romero's in there. But there are FAR more busts among the college arm than their are successes.

Should we eliminate college arms from consideration as well? Should we write off their potential?

All that matters is who you think has the most talent and the ability to make the biggest impact at the big league level. There is risk involved with every single kid you select. College kids have injury risks as well. This list is just the top ten, because stretching it further would take forever. This list shows just how high bust rates are among arms, period. Its not exclusive to HSers. Discrediting Giolito's talent or potential because he's a high schooler is ridiculous.


That's why I favor quantity and wouldn't sacrifice next years pick

Offline Obed_Marsh

  • Posts: 7666
  • ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn
    • Photos
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #197: July 12, 2012, 12:40:39 PM »
Did I miss him signing? Seems premmature for a follow the prospects thread if he hasn't signed yet.

Offline sportsfan882

  • Posts: 86609
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #198: July 12, 2012, 12:43:28 PM »
The Nats' track record with HS pitchers has not been good, keep that in mind.

Here is a few I could think off the top of my head. All have been very disappointing.

  • Jack McGeary - 2007 draft - 6th round (Sucked before TJ surgery, now only hope is as LH reliever but even that's doubtful)
  • Josh Smoker - 2007 draft - 1st round (Also sucked and then had some arm issues. Control is too wild to ever be useful. And he's injury prone)
  • Colton Willems - 2006 draft - 1st round (Didn't have the passion to play so he quit. Wasn't a good pitcher anyways)
  • Graham Hicks - 2008 draft - 4th round (Great frame but never fulfilled potential. Was dealt in Gorzelanny trade. Still floundering in Cubs system)
  • Bobby Hansen - 2008 draft - 18th round (Has pitched poorly bouncing between A and A+ ball. Hardly strikes anyone out despite being a 6' 6" 235 lb LHP)

Obviously, none of them had Giolito's talent though. You have to sign him and hope that the Nats can finally cash in on a HS pitcher. I didn't count Pea**** because he was a draft and follow and attended JUCO.

Offline houston-nat

  • Posts: 16453
Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #199: July 12, 2012, 01:09:33 PM »
Obviously, none of them had Giolito's talent though.
Also, all of them were from the Bowden days, although I suppose Graham Hicks at least was part of the Clark/Rizzo drafting setup.