Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP  (Read 26118 times)

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Offline LostYudite

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #50: June 05, 2012, 10:26:01 AM »
I posted to Brian's blog a comment about the possibility of the Nats being willing to exceed the cap and forfeit a #1 next year.  With EJ likely to qualify as a compensation guy and looking for a multi-year contract, he may be the type of guy you can safely offer qualifying arbitration to, hope will walk, and get a compensation pick or two.  You give up one pick in the 2d half of the first round if you did blow the cap, but with a supplemental and possibly another pick coming back, the damage might not be so great.

That's interesting - I hadn't thought of that.  I kind of doubt that Rizzo would be willing to give up a draft pick, but if push comes to shove, that's an interesting thought.  Though I think there's an argument that they might resign EJ to a longer-term deal too.

But, the other point is even if they don't get one back, you're probably talking about a pick in the 20-25 range.  It's not like giving up a top-10.

But whatevs - get him signed.  I love the pick - "The Nats - We Gotz More Armz than Our Walter Johnson Statue"

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #51: June 05, 2012, 10:28:01 AM »
I posted to Brian's blog a comment about the possibility of the Nats being willing to exceed the cap and forfeit a #1 next year.  With EJ likely to qualify as a compensation guy and looking for a multi-year contract, he may be the type of guy you can safely offer qualifying arbitration to, hope will walk, and get a compensation pick or two.  You give up one pick in the 2d half of the first round if you did blow the cap, but with a supplemental and possibly another pick coming back, the damage might not be so great.



that only gets you an extra 500k, which doesn't help that much, if they really blow it out, it's two years of no number 1

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #52: June 05, 2012, 10:51:27 AM »
Brian's a skeptic about teams forfeiting picks, so it probably is useless speculation on my part.  He suggests a way to find an additional $1.5MM by shorting some of the other picks, which would get the bonus up in the $3.5MM range.  So, if they were OK with losing a pick, perhaps even $4MM could be put together.  Given the injury risk, that seems too much.  Crow money might be realistic.

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #53: June 05, 2012, 10:54:09 AM »
Brian's a skeptic about teams forfeiting picks, so it probably is useless speculation on my part.  He suggests a way to find an additional $1.5MM by shorting some of the other picks, which would get the bonus up in the $3.5MM range.  So, if they were OK with losing a pick, perhaps even $4MM could be put together.  Given the injury risk, that seems too much.  Crow money might be realistic.

Wonder how that Crow guy is doing?    :)


Offline Kevrock

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #54: June 05, 2012, 10:58:48 AM »
Brian's a skeptic about teams forfeiting picks, so it probably is useless speculation on my part.  He suggests a way to find an additional $1.5MM by shorting some of the other picks, which would get the bonus up in the $3.5MM range.  So, if they were OK with losing a pick, perhaps even $4MM could be put together.  Given the injury risk, that seems too much.  Crow money might be realistic.

I wonder which would be more harmful -- losing one first round pick or going signability for a ton of our picks this year.

Online houston-nat

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #55: June 05, 2012, 11:00:07 AM »
Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg both had surgery on their pitching elbows.  They seem to be doing OK.  He's 17, even if he does need tj, he's got plenty of time to recover and get polished in the minors.

Yep, Mariano Rivera had this injury 20 years ago and look how he turned out.

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #56: June 05, 2012, 11:02:31 AM »
I'm shocked the kid slid to 16.

I know his elbow is a huge question mark but with the success rate of TJ nowadays, taking a kid with his talent really isn't a risk at all.

No more than any other 17 year-old who's 3-4 years away from the majors.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #57: June 05, 2012, 11:03:38 AM »
I still sort of kind of wish they'd just put him under the knife now and get it over with... even if he doesn't 100% need it.

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #58: June 05, 2012, 11:06:02 AM »
I wonder which would be more harmful -- losing one first round pick or going signability for a ton of our picks this year.
you could also take another high upside pick in the second and use that as leverage with Giolito or vice versa. If they're contemplating loosing a pick, my preference would be to loose another year and just blow it out with upside picks across the board

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #59: June 05, 2012, 11:07:26 AM »
I still sort of kind of wish they'd just put him under the knife now and get it over with... even if he doesn't 100% need it.

Yep, just bite the bullet and save the rehab time.

I know kids don't ever want to be cut but it's just a part of being a professional pitcher. Especially when it comes to the elbow.

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #60: June 05, 2012, 11:23:20 AM »
Jebus! He's 17 frickin' years old. Let the M.D.s do their jobs. If they think rehab is they way to go, then let him rehab. I'm guessing he's probably at least 3-4 years away from making the big club, so why rush a kid to go under the knife? Evidently these are the same guys that handled Zimmermann and Strasburg, I reckon we might be able to trust their skills a little.

Online imref

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #61: June 05, 2012, 11:38:15 AM »
i spoke to a friend of mine today that has seen Giolito play in several tournaments.  He says that he is the real deal, we got a steal and a potential superstar.

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #62: June 05, 2012, 11:42:47 AM »
Jebus! He's 17 frickin' years old. Let the M.D.s do their jobs. If they think rehab is they way to go, then let him rehab. I'm guessing he's probably at least 3-4 years away from making the big club, so why rush a kid to go under the knife? Evidently these are the same guys that handled Zimmermann and Strasburg, I reckon we might be able to trust their skills a little.

My heart is with you but my head is telling me something different.

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #63: June 05, 2012, 11:51:29 AM »
Would the good docs (andrews/yokum) even perform a surgery that isn't medically necessary? He's 17, I'd have no problem letting nature take it's course, let him get used to the pros before cutting him, otherwise, you have a newly minted teenage millionaire how has never really been part of the organization sitting on their ass for a year -that seems like a recipe for disaster

Offline tomterp

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #64: June 05, 2012, 11:55:27 AM »
Of course they'll let him pitch first before cutting on him.   But given he already has a problem in the ligament, it probably won't take long before there is medical necessity.

Not wishing for it of course, but that seems to be the reality of the elbow.

Offline hammondsnats

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #65: June 05, 2012, 12:03:00 PM »
call him up

Online mitlen

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #66: June 05, 2012, 12:18:03 PM »
I stayed at the Holiday Inn Express last night   ....    :dibbs:

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #67: June 05, 2012, 12:26:54 PM »
Of course they'll let him pitch first before cutting on him.   But given he already has a problem in the ligament, it probably won't take long before there is medical necessity.

Not wishing for it of course, but that seems to be the reality of the elbow.

Perhaps, perhaps not. People calling for him to have surgery already however have to be kidding. If the injury requires it, so be it, but there's nothing to show it currently does.

Are there any studies, stats etc... that show the likelihood of someone with the injury Giolito has eventually leading to TJS?

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #68: June 05, 2012, 12:35:11 PM »
Perhaps, perhaps not. People calling for him to have surgery already however have to be kidding. If the injury requires it, so be it, but there's nothing to show it currently does.

Really?

I'd say a kid falling to #16 who has the best arm in the country is plenty of something.


Offline BrandonK

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #69: June 05, 2012, 12:54:34 PM »
I posted to Brian's blog a comment about the possibility of the Nats being willing to exceed the cap and forfeit a #1 next year.  With EJ likely to qualify as a compensation guy and looking for a multi-year contract, he may be the type of guy you can safely offer qualifying arbitration to, hope will walk, and get a compensation pick or two.  You give up one pick in the 2d half of the first round if you did blow the cap, but with a supplemental and possibly another pick coming back, the damage might not be so great.


new CBA doesn't offer as many picks for signings...

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #70: June 05, 2012, 01:10:02 PM »
From a Royals blog.

Quote
The Wild Cards

When you talk about wild cards in this draft, the discussion begins and mostly ends with Lucas Giolito. Three months ago, Giolito was the favorite to be the #1 overall pick. This would have been historic; he would have been the first high school right-hander in the history of the draft to be selected with the first pick.

For good reason: more than anyone else in this draft, he has the true ability to be a #1 starter in the majors. His fastball and curveball are elite; his changeup is well above-average; he’s 6-foot-6 and has a great work ethic. He’s not Dylan Bundy, but he was being talked about as just a tick below Bundy in terms of having a combination of tremendous upside and relatively little risk for a high school starter. I’ve also heard Josh Beckett comps, Beckett being the last high school right-hander to go #2 overall.

And then he sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in March. Let’s not beat around the bush: the UCL is the ligament you tear in Tommy John surgery. As my friend Will Carroll repeats incessantly, “A sprain is a tear,” which is to say, Giolito has a partial tear in his UCL.

He’s been rehabbing from the injury, and is back to throwing on flat ground, although he hasn’t thrown from a mound, and naturally that makes him an enormous risk. Also, there’s the matter of signability; his father is a Hollywood producer and they don’t need the money, so if he doesn’t get what he thinks he’s worth, he’ll go to UCLA and try again in three years.

Despite the risk, I’d rather have him than any other pitcher in this draft with the possible exception of Appel. We know all about UCLs and Tommy John surgery in Kansas City – more than we want to know. We know that Danny Duffy was pitching with a partial tear in his UCL for years before it gave out. We know that Giolito might be a Tommy John waiting to happen – he might need Tommy John right now. But you know what? So what. Give me the #1 starter, and I’ll wait the extra year for him to recover. Strasburg is doing just fine.


http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #71: June 05, 2012, 01:13:04 PM »
We've taken the same risk three time recently, here, Rendon and Purke- if one hits, it's worth it- it seems like injury red flag is Rizzo's inefficiency in the market

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #72: June 05, 2012, 01:16:14 PM »
Quote
Amanda Comak ‏@acomak
Lucas Giolito said he's throwing long toss from 280-300 ft, confident the elbow issue is behind him. Said UCLA is still a big option for him

Quote
Kevin Jones ‏@Mr_KevinJones
Lucas Giolito says he looks up to Justin Verlander and Stephen Strasburg. #Natitude

Offline Terpfan76

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #73: June 05, 2012, 01:25:04 PM »
Really?

I'd say a kid falling to #16 who has the best arm in the country is plenty of something.



Also has a pretty strong commitment to UCLA and the amount of money needed to sign a HS stud pitcher under the current rules and the handicap that could follow play no part in his fall, none at all...

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Lucas Giolito, RHP
« Reply #74: June 05, 2012, 01:30:36 PM »
Also has a pretty strong commitment to UCLA and the amount of money needed to sign a HS stud pitcher under the current rules and the handicap that could follow play no part in his fall, none at all...

I'm done arguing, mostly because I hope you're correct  8)