Author Topic: Future of big name Nats (2012)  (Read 5481 times)

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Offline BH34Natural

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Future of big name Nats (2012)
« Topic Start: May 24, 2012, 11:49:14 PM »
There are lots of great things about owning baseballs Lebron... The chosen one.

But I have some fear that he won't sign here long term, and jump ship like Lebron did in the NBA. So the question is: do you believe the nationals will try and be able to keep Harper here for his career or sign him to a long-term deal?

Offline GMUNat

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #1: May 24, 2012, 11:52:10 PM »
way too early to discuss this. Talk to me about this in 6 years. Lots can change in 6 years. 6 years ago we had a crappy farm system and even craptier jerseys. Now look how far we came?

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #2: May 24, 2012, 11:52:34 PM »
He's currently under a long-term contract with the Nationals.

Offline BH34Natural

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #3: May 24, 2012, 11:56:36 PM »
way too early to discuss this. Talk to me about this in 6 years. Lots can change in 6 years. 6 years ago we had a crappy farm system and even craptier jerseys. Now look how far we came?

Of course it isn't too early to discuss. People are already talking about it and interested in it. Plus we are only here to weigh in on topics and talk baseball. It shouldn't be a hairy subject or something we should avoid.

Personally hope Rizzo starts talking 10 year deal in 2014 when he is 21

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #4: May 24, 2012, 11:58:01 PM »
Let's see if Bryce Harper can consistently hit big-league pitching before we do anything.

I wouldn't even consider a deal until his third year in the majors.

Offline BH34Natural

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #5: May 24, 2012, 11:59:51 PM »
Let's see if Bryce Harper can consistently hit big-league pitching before we do anything.

I wouldn't even consider a deal until his third year in the majors.

Let's assume that he becomes the star we think he can; what kind of contract would you like to see offered in his 3rd year? And would he want to stay here?

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #6: May 25, 2012, 12:04:47 AM »
Let's assume that he becomes the star we think he can; what kind of contract would you like to see offered in his 3rd year? And would he want to stay here?

I have no idea where Bryce Harper wants to play in six years. From what I know of his background, he didn't seem to grow up a fan of a particular team, and the teams near his birthplace are mostly small market teams.

If he is like 99% of athletes, he will go wherever he gets the most money. The only exception is if he is risk-averse. The guys who sign long-term extensions during their first 6 years are guys who would rather take sure money today than wait for bigger money tomorrow with the chance of a career-ending injury and no money.

I have no idea what his risk preferences are, but if he is super confident in his abilities maybe that suggests he'll test the market. Who knows who will win the bidding war.

Offline BH34Natural

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #7: May 25, 2012, 12:08:29 AM »
I have no idea where Bryce Harper wants to play in six years. From what I know of his background, he didn't seem to grow up a fan of a particular team, and the teams near his birthplace are mostly small market teams.

If he is like 99% of athletes, he will go wherever he gets the most money. The only exception is if he is risk-averse. The guys who sign long-term extensions during their first 6 years are guys who would rather take sure money today than wait for bigger money tomorrow with the chance of a career-ending injury and no money.

I have no idea what his risk preferences are, but if he is super confident in his abilities maybe that suggests he'll test the market. Who knows who will win the bidding war.

Or you offer him a $10 year $200 million as a 21 year old and shift the risk from the player to the organization and keep him for his best years, buy out his last 4 ARB-eligible years

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #8: May 25, 2012, 12:08:30 AM »
And as for comparisons to LeBron:

I think that marketability in baseball is totally different from the NBA. In the NBA, you can be a marketable star in Oklahoma City or Cleveland. In MLB, marketing is more about the front of your jersey. Any mediocre player on the Yankees or Red Sox can be in lots of commercials. Outside of there, its rare. Guys like Pujols and Verlander have made themselves marketable through sheer achievement. Then guys who have interesting backgrounds are marketable. Josh Hamilton would not be a marketable star if he wasn't such an amazing comeback story. Prince Fielder would not be marketable if he were skinny.

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #9: May 25, 2012, 12:11:59 AM »
Or you offer him a $10 year $200 million as a 21 year old and shift the risk from the player to the organization and keep him for his best years, buy out his last 4 ARB-eligible years

Well, the team is going to have to have at least a few big contracts on its books. Might as well be Harper. I'm more comfortable with giving big money to a batter rather than a pitcher, given how much more fragile pitchers are.

But I don't want the team to sign anything with Harper until at least his second season, and preferably his third. If he avoids a sophomore slump, or if he shows he can recover from one.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #10: May 25, 2012, 12:46:57 AM »
Or you offer him a $10 year $200 million as a 21 year old and shift the risk from the player to the organization and keep him for his best years, buy out his last 4 ARB-eligible years

Nice in theory.  He's a Boras client.  He'll see free agency unless you blow them out of the water.  10/200 ain't gonna cut it.

Offline BH34Natural

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #11: May 25, 2012, 12:52:48 AM »
Nice in theory.  He's a Boras client.  He'll see free agency unless you blow them out of the water.  10/200 ain't gonna cut it.

Even at age 21 or 22?

Would think that it would mean something to his legacy to play his whole career in one city ala his boy the Mick... I mean, this kid is a historian

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #12: May 25, 2012, 12:56:40 AM »
If he's the player I/we/everybody thinks he can/will be, 10/200 won't come close to being enough to lock him up pre free agency.

Offline BH34Natural

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #13: May 25, 2012, 01:06:14 AM »
If he's the player I/we/everybody thinks he can/will be, 10/200 won't come close to being enough to lock him up pre free agency.

Well I don't know. Ryan Braun is pretty good and he got 7 years and 145.5 million. That deal is makes Harper a $20 million a year player

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #14: May 25, 2012, 07:26:26 AM »
If he's the Mantle of our generation, he'll exceed Braun.  I don't know if he is or not. Probably won't know by 21 but we should have a pretty good idea by the time he hits free agency.  We might be able to buy out a couple arb years but there won't be any long term deals beyond that.  Boras just doesn't do that.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #15: May 25, 2012, 07:52:14 AM »
I consider him as a good as gone when the time comes. Thats what makes waiting till he got his needed time in the minors so crucial. That last year, he's going to be trade bait.

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #16: May 25, 2012, 08:07:03 AM »
He is here long enough for us to win him over. Create enough great memories, be the place Rizzo claims it will be, and none of the players will want to leave. It won't be easy and it will likely cost a small barge full of cash but it is not a foregone conclusion he dons pinstripes like some would have you believe.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #17: May 25, 2012, 08:08:37 AM »
way too early to discuss this. Talk to me about this in 6 years. Lots can change in 6 years. 6 years ago we had a crappy farm system and even craptier jerseys. Now look how far we came?


not really- Longoria was extended almost immediately after being called up, the trend is  early extensions (side rant - at least for forward thinking GMs- extend Zimmermann while we can still afford him- end side rant)

Quote
And one noteworthy takeaway from Extension Season revolves around the youth of the players involved. Ten of the extendees were pre-arbitration players (players with fewer than three years of service time who did not qualify for "Super Two" status): Madison Bumgarner, Alcides Escobar, Derek Holland, Jonathan Lucroy, Cory Luebke, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, Jon Niese, Salvador Perez and Carlos Santana. Two other pre-arb players -- Sergio Santos and Matt Moore -- also signed extensions since the end of last season.

...



http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120426&content_id=29715998&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #18: May 25, 2012, 08:21:06 AM »
Longoria signed for $3 million dollars. Harper signed for $9.9 million. Harper is already set for life. Where's the incentive for Harper to sign?

Harper is primed to hit free agency at age 26 (or is it 25?) and if he's this generations Mantle he'll sign the largest contract in the history of baseball.

I'd wager that Harper won't sign any contract until free agency.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #19: May 25, 2012, 08:24:27 AM »
probably not, but with $10 million in the bank, maybe it's worth it to him to sign something like a $30 million deal giving up a year of free agency as an injury hedge. No way I see him signing a long extension though 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #20: May 25, 2012, 08:35:50 AM »
Longoria signed for $3 million dollars. Harper signed for $9.9 million. Harper is already set for life. Where's the incentive for Harper to sign?

Harper is primed to hit free agency at age 26 (or is it 25?) and if he's this generations Mantle he'll sign the largest contract in the history of baseball.

I'd wager that Harper won't sign any contract until free agency.

Especially with Boras as his agent.


Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #21: May 25, 2012, 08:49:54 AM »
Of course it isn't too early to discuss. People are already talking about it and interested in it. Plus we are only here to weigh in on topics and talk baseball. It shouldn't be a hairy subject or something we should avoid.


Let me be clear, it's too early for ME to discuss it. I suspect that we'll get our fill of this topic for next few years so I'm pacing myself.

I'm just going to enjoy watching him for however long he is here.

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #22: May 25, 2012, 08:55:21 AM »
probably not, but with $10 million in the bank, maybe it's worth it to him to sign something like a $30 million deal giving up a year of free agency as an injury hedge. No way I see him signing a long extension though 
Yep.

We may be able to sneak in 2 years for $50 mill, or something along those lines. But he's not signing a long-term deal anytime soon.


Offline BH34Natural

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #23: May 25, 2012, 08:56:23 AM »
Wow. I guess I didn't realize that people already consider him gone. What if the Nats offer him the largest deal?

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Future of big name Nats
« Reply #24: May 25, 2012, 09:00:52 AM »
Wow. I guess I didn't realize that people already consider him gone. What if the Nats offer him the largest deal?

the Nats have MASN as the source of their TV revenue, other teams either own networks or have deals negotiated in a competitive environment in larger markets than DC- somehow I don't see us being able to outbid teams in the first category (Yankees, Red Sox) or the second (Dodgers Angles Rangers)