Author Topic: This is a playoff team  (Read 2157 times)

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #25: May 20, 2012, 12:59:03 PM »
This is a playoff team.

Let me take that back.  This is not a playoff team with Espinosa starting on it.   >:(

Offline Smithian

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #26: May 20, 2012, 01:38:47 PM »
Seriously, some of you need to find another hobby, or maybe you're all just so dissatisfied with your lives that you take each loss personally. I know what it's like to be a lifelong fan, and I watch as many games as you all, but take a deep breath once in a while. I've said it before: We just lost two (didn't even get blown out) by a team atop the AL East. The freaking AL East.

Of course we have holes. It's like someone did a drive-by on the team bus as it left Viera. But it's a long season, and y'all play the ups and the downs too hard
:clap:

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #27: May 20, 2012, 02:03:28 PM »
This is not a playoff team.

Offline welch

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #28: May 20, 2012, 05:34:05 PM »
Return CMW, Morse, and Storen: this is a division-winning team. Think of Werth returning in mid-August...even better.

Good pitching can make up for many things. I watched the Cubs/Mets in '69. Cleon Jones was the only Met player who could have started for the Cubs...but the Cubs only had Jenkins and Holtzman, while the Mets had Seaver, Koosman, Gentry, and relief pitchng. Probably another starter I've forgotten (Jim McAndrew?)

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #29: May 20, 2012, 05:41:09 PM »
IF Werth returns at all this year I doubt he'll do much better than Ankiel due to his sapped power with a broken wrist.

Offline Slateman

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #30: May 20, 2012, 05:41:26 PM »
Return CMW, Morse, and Storen: this is a division-winning team. Think of Werth returning in mid-August...even better.

Good pitching can make up for many things. I watched the Cubs/Mets in '69. Cleon Jones was the only Met player who could have started for the Cubs...but the Cubs only had Jenkins and Holtzman, while the Mets had Seaver, Koosman, Gentry, and relief pitchng. Probably another starter I've forgotten (Jim McAndrew?)

You're assuming that Morse hits like last year, CMW is worth anything, and Werth returns to pre injury form.

Offline GMUNat

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #31: May 20, 2012, 05:41:40 PM »
IF Werth returns at all this year I doubt he'll do much better than Ankiel due to his sapped power with a broken wrist.

I feel like that this will happen to Morse.

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #32: May 20, 2012, 05:44:46 PM »
I feel like that this will happen to Morse.

Everytime Morse has hit the ball this season, he has been scorching it.

Offline Slateman

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #33: May 20, 2012, 05:47:14 PM »
Everytime Morse has hit the ball this season, he has been scorching it.

When did he play this season?

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #34: May 20, 2012, 05:48:50 PM »
When did he play this season?

Rehab assignments

Offline Slateman

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #35: May 20, 2012, 05:50:05 PM »
Yea .... I'll wait till he starts doing it in the majors.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #36: May 20, 2012, 05:50:34 PM »
Rehab assignments

He's started rehab games?

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #37: May 20, 2012, 05:51:46 PM »
He's started rehab games?

Before he shut down.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #38: May 20, 2012, 05:52:38 PM »
Before he shut down.

Oh.  Wasn't that in Spring Training?

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #39: May 20, 2012, 05:53:11 PM »
Yea .... I'll wait till he starts doing it in the majors.

If he's not suffering from reduced strength in the minors, he's not going to suffer from it in the majors.  This was a question of weakness not his ability to hit.

Online Kevrock

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #40: May 20, 2012, 06:47:16 PM »
His swing has been fine for a while I thought. Isnt throwing the issue?

Offline tomterp

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #41: May 20, 2012, 07:36:06 PM »
Yea .... I'll wait till he starts doing it in the majors.


A courageous stance, willing to stake your reputation on hindsight.     :roll:

Offline Slateman

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #42: May 20, 2012, 07:48:25 PM »
Whatever. I'm still not convinced he can duplicate last year. He had a rather high BABIP last year and it isn't like he beats out a lot of ground balls.

Oh, and we're not a playoff team because our ace is on a 90 count pitch count and will be shut down after 165 innings

Offline tomterp

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #43: May 20, 2012, 07:52:31 PM »
I'm guessing Morse will take a couple of weeks to get his timing down and then it will be the usual mash, mash, and mash some more.

But your guess is as good as mine.    :shrug:

Online Kevrock

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #44: May 20, 2012, 08:18:18 PM »
Whatever. I'm still not convinced he can duplicate last year. He had a rather high BABIP last year and it isn't like he beats out a lot of ground balls.


His BABIP last year was two points lower than his career BABIP.

Offline Slateman

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #45: May 20, 2012, 08:31:23 PM »
His BABIP last year was two points lower than his career BABIP.

A career that consists of a whopping 1200 PA. Or, in other words, barely two seasons. And only 800 as an every day  player.

Not saying he won't hit .260/.270 with power, just that he won't be able to duplicate last season.

Offline welch

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #46: May 20, 2012, 10:57:14 PM »
Do we know what BAPIP means? Can it be used to predict anything?

I can predict that Morse will take a week or two getting off the rust, and that then he will hit better than last season. Why not? He will be hitting in a clump with Adam LaRoche, Ryan Z, Harper; with Desmond hitting a bit better, and either Lombo or Espinosa hitting better than last season. (meaning: Espinosa hits better or Lombo takes over.) No more Nady/Moore/Bernadina in the lineup.

This could be fun. Lombo/Harper/LaRoche/RZim/Morse...a mini-murder's row.

Offline Coladar

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #47: May 21, 2012, 12:59:11 AM »
Honestly,  saying what is and isn't a playoff team is nuts. There have been plenty of playoff teams that didn't make it due to bad luck., injuries, the wrong division... How many AL east teams never made it? Plenty of bad teams that made it, how many AL West or NL west teams?

All that matters is the win loss record. No one expected this team to compete before 13... The fact we are now is amazing. And speaks to how good we will be when we expected to be good, 13-17. Let's just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #48: May 21, 2012, 08:51:17 AM »
Morse is one of those guys I'd love to have a measure of velocity of his bat.  that data is still propietary to Hit/fx.  I think it might explain how a guy that slow can consistently have a fast guy average on balls in play.

He's interesting in that, while he's been around since 2005, he had that long period of going back to the minors.  Something like 70% of his PAs are from 2010 - 2011, when he was big and slow, while about 20% are in his first call up when he was smaller and still a SS.  In his 3 seasons with the most PAs, he's always hit around 45% GBs.  His first call up, he had an unsustainable 25% LD rate, and he was less filled out and slow, so that combo explains his .341 BABIP that year.  In 2010, he had a low LD rate (16%), and most of the missing LDs shifted to FB. His BABIP was only .330, which is still high for a big slow guy but lowest of his 3 seasons with the most PAS.  Last year, he had a more normal rate of liners (19.5%), and his BABIP returned to .344, near his career norm.  It'll take more work to get into the publicly-available numbers to figure out where his "luck" is coming from, but I'm guessing some of it is the lack of a book on postioning OFs for flies, and some of it is staying up the middle on his GBs, and some of it is velocity off the bat.

Offline Ray D

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Re: This isn't a playoff team
« Reply #49: May 21, 2012, 09:18:15 AM »
Dale Hunter would have benched Desmond's ass tonight, arguing with the ump instead of running to first, this type of crap is why we fail. 

I missed that, what happened?